April 19 Storm chase (heads or tails) (Patreon)

The NAM and the HRRR are at odds concerning location of the dryline in Kansas and quality of moisture return there… the NAM being more bullish. Regardless, the heads 5% risk appears to be the best bet for thunderstorms. “Tails” is more conditional. You could score a lone supercell and tornado, or get sun burned. I’m currently in oklahoma but will likely make the drive north.

The northern target scenario I’m expecting is storm initiation around 7pm in the 5% bullseye. The low level jet will really start to crank after dark fueling more storms. Could be a long night of lightning.

Good luck bolt lovers!