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MARCH 7th & 8th STORM EVENTS (Today & Tomorrow) (Patreon)

Published:
2024-03-07 20:29:54
Imported:
2026-06
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To mess with our heads, the SPC snuck in a late 5% today at 11:20AM.  Running the numbers prior, I slated today as a waste of gas.  Could this be our first regret of the year? :D

The NAM seemed to resolve the last 2 or 3 events better than the HRRR. Here are those CAMS cheat sheets for today starting with the NAM NEST.


Regardless of what we miss or don't miss, I like calibrating both models on how they are handling the current atmosphere.  Which ever model performs the best today will likely be the one I'll lean harder into tomorrow.  Of course there's the off-off, off chance they are in agreement. 

Latest GOES 16 has a nice early break in the clouds around San Angelo in SW TX. That would have been my target.  If I was driving in last minute from OKC I'd likely target SW Oklahoma. HRRR is looking pretty good at this point. 

So place your bets gang.  Heads, tails, or desk?  Pretty tornadoes today or nada? 

 

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Comments

Celton

Upgraded south central Kansas to a 5% as well. Little concerned about convective inhibition up that way but could see something happening. Just gonna sit back and watch what happens from my desk here in central Florida.

Anna Shepard

might as well, tornadoes don’t typically care about how much gas is at stake!!

Cameron Marshall (phonon)

just decided to not make the trek out to storm chase, so seeing that you're also not going makes me a feel a bit better about that. i would've targeted the southern kansas 5% risk that just got put out, but alas i have too much work to do

Isaac Heinold Storm Chasing

There’s a storm near Sterling City, TX that has a nice hook echo and velocity couplet on it. Will be watching this one for sure.

Mike Castles

Stayed home, with all of the precip falling not sure if it's going to hamper things or not and it's early in the season, no reason to waste time and money yet. However if I did go, was going to head out and say Hello to Mr Ed.

Pecos Hank

Interesting scene. We’ve got 3 supercells about to merge near Blackwell TX.

Pecos Hank

I feel the HRRR had a much better grip on today.

Janine Moss

Here in PA it's just been a lotta rain.... Sun tomorrow. It's been nice temp wise for March. (My younger son's bday is today. He's 19! So maybe he's my tornado.... He decided to make his entrance 2 days before I was scheduled so.... 😅)

Pecos Hank

FRIDAY: The CAMS seem to be agreement that today is going to be a gooey-goobliglosh storm event in ETX, LA & MS. Instead of chasing I'll be working on my Argentina video. Lets regroup next week with a possible live chat. xox

Mike Castles
>>131798892

Home is good, we have had two nice days/nights of thunder boomers with nice light show- cloud to cloud. Decent rain amounts and the thunder and lightning best we've had in many months.

Mike Castles

Next week looks like we will have another chance to roll the dice.