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Philip Rivers and the most unfathomable streak in sports (Patreon)

Published:
2026-09-11 16:00:20
Edited:
2026-09-24 14:23:38
Imported:

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Greetings beautiful people, this is Alex and I've got something to say about former Chargers legend Philip Rivers. Rivers is unquestionably one of the all-time great quarterbacks in NFL history, while at no point throughout his illustrious career being known for his wheels. Strictly his passing. But just how strictly? Just how mobility-challenged was he?

Well, would you believe it if I told you the last touchdown he ever scored with his legs occurred in his 164th-to-last start? Because against every single odd, Rivers then started 163 consecutive games to close his career (more than an entire MLB season!) without even once sniffing paydirt on the ground. If you think, say, Joe DiMaggio's 56-game hitting streak -- especially with its mostly unknown aggravating circumstances -- was an impressive one, a quarterback crafting a streak of 163 consecutive starts without scoring a touchdown blows even that out of the water.

The confluence of events that unlocked such a miraculous streak was a perfect storm; one that allowed for something nearly 10x unlikelier than getting dealt back-to-back royal flushes to indeed come to fruition. May its majesty be forever admired.

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Comments

jmundt33a

Not all exercises in consistency are impressive or horrifying. Sometimes they just are. This is not a feat. It is an acknowledgement of limitations.

jmundt33a

How many times did he attempt to score running in those starts?

David Dyte

The .16 probability isn't really accurate because there are some number of games with multiple TDs by the QB, which means fewer games with a QB TD or more, so the chances of 0 happening in a single game is greater than 0.84.

alex

fair point and i certainly considered that line of thinking! ultimately i decided 84% was an appropriate number to use because on a more macro level, we're talking about a big bucket of 1285 qb rushing touchdowns across X plays, regardless of how they happen to have been distributed on a game level. 84% would be the number if it were broken down on a per play basis and then extrapolated for average number of plays per game (starts just happens to be a much cleaner and more logical way to organize it). for instance following that same rationale, '01 barry bonds hit a homer in 61 of his 153 games, but hit 73 total. had there been an extra game tacked on at the end of the season, i'm quite confident vegas would consider him to have much closer to a 73/153 likelihood to homer in it than 61/153 because ultimately it could be thought of as having hit 73 homers in 664 plate appearances, and based on the expected plate appearances he'd have in a theoretical extra game, that plate appearance-based likelihood would align far closer to 73/153 than 61/153. but specifically to account for the alternative line of thinking, i decided saying "give or take" sufficed. -alex

theMasochistGamer

I'm curious how that percentage changes when you remove the biggest outliers and their starts (going on a rushing TDs/game basis with a minimum of 11 rushing TDs, those are Taysom Hill, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts, with Cam Newton up there too). Honestly, Hill resides in a weird gadget-player position, and I don't have a good answer for how to take his scores into account without adding a boatload of qualifiers