Fight Study 158: UFC 302 (Plus Transcript) (Patreon)

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UFC 302 has come and gone, and the only thing I want to discuss is the main event between lightweight champion Islam Makhachev and Dustin Poirier.

But let me start by saying free Palestine and how I appreciate champion Islam Makhachev being so openly supportive of Palestinians.

Now, I want to walk you through what I saw round by round in this fight from the evolving perspective of Liberation Martial Arts, otherwise known as LMA. There's the greater pedagogy and theory, but when we look strictly at a fight, rather than mechanistically, we start from perspectives: what the fighters see, what they think they're seeing, and, of course, the circumstances of each situation.

Round 1

In round 1, both fighters come to the center of the Octagon. Since both are standing right foot forward, they're in parallel stances.

The champion, Islam Makhachev, starts faking shots by changing his height. He's also pumping and waving his lead hand. Fighting, like magic, is all about perception and attention. Where is the viewer's attention going?

I give you irrelevant noise, and within that noise, I hide my signal—my actual intention. If I only show you relevant signals, I'm giving you the answer sheet to a test.

It's not just about the mechanics of what Poirier does because his actions are based on what he sees, which is based on where he's looking.

In LMA, you perceive to move and move to perceive. Against an experienced fighter, it's hard to find any openings. You need to move to reveal an opening. That's not an automatic one-to-one. You need countless hours to see the opening that's been revealed. Without developed eyes, you won't see openings that are already there or the ones you initiate.

Makhachev pumped his lead hand and threw jabs; Poirier responded in kind by throwing his own jab. A jab is not only a good answer against a jab but also leaves you relatively safe against the takedown, which Poirier's already keeping his eye on. When Poirier executes the jab, Makhachev lands a cross counter over it. Makhachev slips. Poirier watches his trunk movement and expects a hook to the body, but instead, it's an unorthodox hook to the head.

This leads to a sequence where Makhachev pressures Poirier against the fence and gets a takedown.

There's lots of methodical ground and pound. Again, moving to perceive because, at this level, the opponent isn't going to just give you something. You have to move first and then spot an opening because a high-level fighter will try to respond to your movements without exposing themselves. So you have to be skilled just to see it.

Makhachev spots Poirier's opening. He isolates an arm and attempts a double wrist lock submission from half guard. Dustin rolls to escape, but Makhachev stays with him and takes his back.

Makhachev punches Poirier from behind and looks for openings but doesn't find it.

Makhachev dominates round 1.

Round 2

In round 2, Poirier starts with calf kicks, which is how he started round 1, though he got very little offense off in the previous round. Makhachev catches the kick and takes Poirier down, but Poirier works to get back up. The way Poirier pulls his leg out of takedown attempts might have contributed to his knee injury.

When you have solutions for your opponent's offensive movements, they'll lose confidence in their reliability and hesitate. They need something else to fill that void, but trying to come up with something else means thinking, which means you're freezing to think. This is also where ticks come to the surface even more, which is the fighter's version of stimming.

Makhachev, on the other hand, is building off his lead hand movements to fake, jab, grab, hook, or blind Poirier.

Makhachev is not rushing, even during takedown attempts. He's not thinking of the finish but moving from opening to opening and making Poirier expend energy. When Poirier gets up from a takedown, Makhachev clinches him and makes him carry his weight and push him off. Poirier is constantly dealing with weight and gravity. This strategy is wearing him down.

When Poirier calf kicks, Makhachev blasts a straight or an elbow. A calf kick is supposed to be an easy way to score a point without taking damage but that's no longer working.

When Makhachev fires, Poirier defends on autopilot, either covering his own eyes with his arms or turning away to roll but no longer keeping his eyes on Makhachev or closing his eyes. He's getting startled because he doesn't know what's coming.

Makhachev seizes that opportunity for another takedown. They end up in clinch again, but this time, Poirier keeps his neck and posture strong enough so that Makhachev is off balance. Makhachev doesn't want to punch or knee because he's unstable. Strong neck is something Poirier's corner was even calling out.

With Makhachev off balance, Poirier found his body shots and began to pressure. This gave Poirier confidence.

Makhachev responded with a double-collar tie again. Poirier postured with a strong neck as his corner asked, but Makhachev changed his height and shot for a tackle since he was so upright. Move to perceive. Makhachev previously saw an opportunity he wasn't ready for, so he tried the collar tie again, but this time, when he saw it, he was ready.

This is known as a contextual prior, which means using prior knowledge to contextualize your next action.

Makhachev gets another takedown at the end.

Makhachev clearly wins round 2.

Round 3

Round 3 begins, and Makhachev goes back to the clinch and knee. Poirier expends energy to break off. He's no longer confident in his previous answer to the clinch. Makhachev is perturbing Poirier's game plan. He does this with everyone.

When Makhachev comes forward again, Poirier ducks because he doesn't want Makhachev to grab his neck. When he does it again, Makhachev catches him with an uppercut and a knee.

Poirier begins covering up against punches because he doesn't know what's coming, and rolling and ducking aren't working. This allows Makhachev to reclaim the double-collar tie. Poirier, this time, responds by wrestling with Makhachev and pummeling for position but eats an uppercut as they get chest-to-chest. Being chest-to-chest with Makhachev sets up the takedown against the fence.

Poirier is on the mat on all fours. He uses this opportunity to catch his breath, but Makhachev slides his legs in to get the hooks to take Poirier's back. Poirier left a gap in movement where he stopped moving. Makhachev filled that gap.

From the contextual prior of the previous backtake, Makhachev moves to mount. However, Poirier uses the fence to escape before Makhachev can stabilize for ground and pound. Makhachev transitions to the armbar but Poirier escapes. Makhachev transitions to the double leg but Poirier defends. Makhachev gets the double-collar tie as they get up, but Poirier forgets about posture and blasts body shots.

Makhachev backs up. This also happens with Khabib Nurmagomedov, where he needs time to recover after a grappling exchange. Grappling takes a lot out of even the initiator. This is when Nurmagomedov and Makhachev look their worst. It's not that they're hurt; they just need time to recover. Makhachev even shakes his arms out.

Makhachev throws measured punches to conserve his arms for grappling but also because they're tired from grappling. The other nice thing about measured strikes is that they keep your gaze steady. When you throw hard, it's hard to keep your eyes steady. Try reading something on your phone while walking on the treadmill. It's not that hard. Now try doing it while running. That's difficult because your eyes can't stabilize. So throwing hard not only takes you out of position and exerts more energy but also effectively blinds you. Measured strikes also keep you relaxed, not only making it easier to get back to defense because you can see the shots coming but also because you're not fighting forward momentum to return to defense. When you throw hard, there's often too much momentum to bring your guard back in time.

Makhachev clinches again but doesn't do anything with it other than relax and recover. He's moving forward but still recovering.

When Makhachev slips, rather than throwing a traditional hook to the body, he will show a kick or throw a left straight or a right hook to the head, hiding the signal within noise.

Poirier finds success jabbing off the jab because Makhachev is too tired to counter. The body shots also come through because Makhachev prioritizes avoiding headshots above other strikes.

Poirier finds some success late, which means he is trading evenly with Makhachev at the end, but Makhachev wins the round.

Round 4

Makhachev comes out in round 4 with an answer to the jabs and body shots, which is the left overhand. Poirier fires back, expecting Makhachev to give ground, but Makhachev fires and scores.

Why does Makhachev only throw to the head? So Poirier covers his head, which opens his hips for the takedown. When Makhachev sees the hands are up, he knows the hips are open. He shoots for a tackle.

They get to the fence, and Poirier eventually gets dragged to the ground. Based on previous knowledge, Poirier, this time, actively defends the backtake and doesn't allow Makhachev to slide his legs in. However, Poirier still has to carry Makhachev's weight.

Feeling his weight leaning into him, Poirier uses that feeling to set up a switch. He escapes, and they both get up.

Poirier lands with body shots against the cage but Makhachev knees and escapes.

They clinch again. Makhachev lands an uppercut in the same gap as before, but this time, Poirier uses his prior knowledge of this position to land an elbow.

They trade shots. Makhachev lands to the head and Poirier to the body. They're taking turns. Poirier expects punches as he covers because this late in the fight, it's hard to sustain offense, so fighters can get into a pattern of taking turns exchanging, which is really taking turns resting. As Poirier covers to rest, Makhachev shoots. Hands up means exposed hips.

They end up against the cage with Makhachev pushing for a takedown and Poirier looking for a standing choke.

If you're going to give Poirier a round, this would be it. The striking is close, and when striking is close, you look at control and grappling, and Makhachev had that. He takes the round, in my opinion, despite Poirier making this fight exciting and keeping himself in the fight.

Round 5

Makhachev starts off round 5 with volume and effort. He's throwing more and landing more. There's no more dynamic defense; Poirier is covering up. He escapes a single leg but gets clinched and eats punches and a knee. He has to exert his remaining energy to push Makhachev off.

Despite being round 5, Makhachev is rolling away from punches well. He's winning the fight with a good mix of strikes and takedowns, and the combination confuses Poirier.

Poirier finds his moments, but when he does, that only feeds into the takedown because when your hands are up, your hips are open. Makhachev gets to a single. But rather than fighting Makhachev's hands, Poirier has been whipping his leg out, which is risky for the knee. Makhachev uses that against him to whip his leg to take him down. Poirier wants to get up, but Makhachev grabs a front headlock and drags him down. Poirier rolls, and Makhachev cinches in an inverted arm triangle. One interesting adaptation is that he grabs his forearm rather than his bicep. This allows Makhachev to cinch this on opponents with big shoulders. Poirier taps but he's out.

Makhachev was winning the round before the finish. He is different from Nurmagomedov because he doesn't dominate with brute force. He adapts and makes better reads than his opponents. He also has a diverse movement repertoire, and few fighters have his combination of fight options. Not to mention his game sense or the ability to see the fight developing.

To access the complete Liberation Martial Arts curriculum and contribute to the sustainability of this project, consider upgrading your membership. Find other ways to support us here. – Sam

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(I write daily about martial arts and other topics from a liberatory perspective. If you like my work, please support me on Patreon or Substack, or make a one-time donation on Ko-fi. Find Southpaw at its website. Get the swag on Spring. Also check out Liberation Martial Arts Online.)