Paul's Preview: UFC 238 (Patreon)

UFC 238 is one of the more stacked UFC cards as of late, and we are blessed with two title fights. In the main event, flyweight champion Henry Cejudo will be moving up in weight to challenge for the vacant bantamweight title against Marlon Moraes. In the co-main event, Valentina Shevchenko will be defending her title against #1 contender, Jessica Eye. To round out the two solid title fights, former lightweight champion Tony Ferguson will be fighting Donald Cerrone for what appears to be a #1 contender match for a fight against Khabib Nurmagomedov. We’re right at fight week and so far, no one has pulled out or been scrapped from competing, so let’s pray to the MMA gods and hope that we get some great fights out of this event.

Henry Cejudo vs Marlon Moraes

Ever since Henry first lost to Demetrious Johnson, he has been on a mission to become the first UFC champion and Olympic gold medalist. After accomplishing that goal by beating Mighty Mouse in a rematch, he wiped out T.J. Dillashaw for his first title defense in less than a minute to enter the conversation as one of the pound-for-pound greats. To further solidify his greatness and join an elite group of fighters that are champ-champs, Cejudo will be moving up in weight against Marlon Moraes, who has been a tear and has finished his last 3 opponents in devastating fashion. Going by their latest fights, it’s clear that Henry has stepped up his training in a big way. Cejudo was able to execute a game plan that was similar to the one he used against Joseph Benavidez, but he was a lot quicker this time around. T.J. does a lot of feints and squat movements, but Henry didn’t bite on any of them. This is going to be helpful against someone like Moraes, who can feint and dart in and out of position, trying to lure you into overcommitting. The kind of training that Henry has been doing lately with Neural Force 1 was evident in the match against Dillashaw, and you can see just how fast Cejudo’s reactions are in his past few fights. It’s not so much speed, but his reaction to stimuli that is quicker than ever. Cejudo’s main trainer, Eric Albarracin, talks about how we can do longer do MMA in phases, it is all just one art. Everything is done for MMA. If you take a move like a wrestling single leg, it is approached with MMA in mind, and not done solely for wrestling purposes. Henry looked massive against Mighty Mouse, and frame wise he looked even bigger against TJ. He actually looked like the natural 135 pounder, and he didn’t seem outsized against TJ. These are all good skills to have against a challenger like Moraes.

Ever since dropping a split decision in his UFC debut against Raphael Assuncao, Moraes has rattled off 4 straight victories, with the last 3 all ending the first round. Having Mark Henry as your trainer and sparring partners such as Frankie Edgar, Eddie Alvarez, and Zabit Magomedsharipov, Moraes has surrounded himself with all the tools needed for success. He has striking elements of Edgar and Alvarez, most notably Edgar’s jabs and Alvarez’s darting lateral movement. Where Moraes truly stands out is his stance switching to kicks that seem to catch almost everybody off guard. He was able to catch both Aljamain Sterling and Jimmie Rivera with hip feints that switched to kicks immediately, but against Assuncao it was his hands that did most of the damage. Channeling a young Frankie Edgar, Moraes split lighting quick jabs down the middle towards Assuncao, and he was just one step behind on the counters. Compounding this problem for Raphael, Moraes was constantly stance switching and throwing out feints, which had Raphael whiffing at air and eating jabs for staying still. Moraes also added a ton of low kicks in for good measure, and when he felt that he had Assuncao’s reactions down pat, he threw a right overhand that stunned him. Not one to let an opportunity slip by, Moraes repeated the same combo and put Assuncao down on the mat. After smothering him through crafty positioning and heavy ground and pound, Moraes finished him with a smooth guillotine choke, cementing him as one of the top bantamweights in the world. This matchup is going to be interesting to watch, since Cejudo is moving up to his more natural weight class of 135, and despite his excellent reaction timing, he might be giving up the speed advantage against Moraes. It’s good to see Henry not biting on as many feints against both Mighty Mouse and T.J., but the switch kicks and lateral movements of Moraes can give Cejudo problems, especially if he decides to shoot in recklessly (as Sterling found out). As fans, we might be able to see which skill emerges victorious this time around, timing (Cejudo) or speed (Moraes).

Valentina Shevchenko vs Jessica Eye

Valentina is an excellent counter-striker with very little tells. When she evades your strikes, she does it with very few movements which puts her in a great position to counter strike with combinations. Given her background as a decorated kickboxer, it’s no surprise to see her give so many fighters problems on the feet, and no one else has given Amanda Nunes as hard of a time in recent fights. Shevchenko is always calm under pressure, and we saw that in her last fight against Joanna Jędrzejczyk, who is very high energy and volume output. Valentina let Joanna lead, but Joanna didn’t have the same tools as Amanda Nunes (takedowns and ground control). The level of striking intelligence shown by Valentina was impressive, as she didn’t bite down on a lot of the feints that Joanna threw. When Valentina did throw, she threw with such speed that she hasn’t shown at 135 pounds. Even when Shevchenko was at 135, she was never the weaker fighter. Despite being constantly undersized, she was never out-muscled by her opponents. The way that Valentina manhandled Joanna showed the difference in strength between the two, but she doesn’t rely on the traditional methods of building power. She might be limited to using martial arts/body weight training due to constantly being on the road and not able to access a fully furnished gym, but this might also let her train year-round and condition non-stop (like farmer’s strength).

At women’s flyweight, it’s going to be hard to find anyone that can beat Valentina. Joanna is probably one of the best strikers in the UFC (male or female), and Valentina proved she was the superior. Even on her back, Valentina is dangerous and can submit you, and it’s going to be hard to find a grappler that can take her down in the first place. Despite the odds, Jessica Eye will attempt to wrestle the crown away from Shevchenko. Having won all her fights at 125, Eye looks much more at home in her natural weight class. Perhaps it’s due to the new-ness of the division, but the weight class isn’t teeming with contenders just yet. Given that gap, Eye finds herself with an opportunity that she probably wasn’t going to ever get at bantamweight (given that she had 4 losses in a row). Despite being vaunted for her boxing prowess, Eye still leaves a lot to be desired on the feet. Against Katlyn Chookagian (her most recent opponent), Jessica attacked in a straight line and still moved her head straight back or ducked down to evade strikes. This is fine in limited scenarios, but it does keep you from being able to counter effectively and leaves you vulnerable for takedowns. Eye does use constant head movement, but it doesn’t mean she uses it effectively. Think of it more like head activity, where her upper body and head will move for the sake of moving instead of as part of an overall defensive strategy or to feint certain attacks. A worrisome habit of Jessica is that she still chases opponents through the cage without any ring cutting in sight. Eye’s kicks range from inside low kick, body kick, or calf kick, and they’re usually thrown out in the open without any setups. Her jabs are set ups for the overhand right and hooks, and this is where some of her offensive weapons shine. When she does get into brawls, her hooks to the body can be effective, but it’s always in bursts and her exits can get sloppy. One of the most worrisome habits that Jessica has is leading with her head when she rushes in, a flaw that Chookagian couldn’t take full advantage of. This is a fight that is tailor made for all of Valentina’s strengths to shine through, but the Anthony Joshua vs Andy Ruiz has taught us that once the right punch connects, anything can happen.  

Donald Cerrone vs Tony Ferguson

This fight can be a main event by itself, but we are fortunate to have this as part of a an already stacked card. Many will argue that Tony is the real lightweight champion since he never lost his title, and even “defended” it against Anthony Pettis. After a bout with mental health (that he claims to have gotten cleared up), Ferguson is going to put his 11-fight win streak on the line against Cowboy, who’s put together a 3-fight win streak of his own. If there is ever a case to be made for less sparring to prolong your career and lifespan, Ferguson’s case is one of the strongest. Tony hasn’t sparred in 4-5 years, and Robbie Lawler was able to rejuvenate his career by saving his body for actual fights. Old school Chute Boxe guys left it all in the gym, but it hurt their longevity. In his most recent fight, Tony’s constant switch stances made Pettis whiff at air, but Duke Roufus told Pettis to time one of Tony’s kicks and punch him at the same time. This is what caused Pettis to drop Tony in the second round. Much like a sniper, Pettis needs time and space to do his best work, whereas Tony is like a machine gun where he will go all over the place until he catches you with one of his diverse strikes. Ferguson’s style of fighting is a hodge-podge of singular attacks that he has put together to form his own unique system. His pinwheel hand movements, granby rolls to evade takedowns, constant snap downs to D’Arce attempts, constant low kicks that set up elbow strikes, and not to mention his stance switching all make for a difficult opponent to game plan for. However, if there is one guy in the division that has seen it all, it’s Cerrone.  

Donald’s fight against both Alex Hernandez and Al Iaquinta show you that given enough time, he can adjust and beat you with experience. Once Cowboy took Alex down, he used the break to analyze and break down the striking of Alex while scoring points on the ground. Donald does a good job of adjusting to his opponent’s game plans, but he needs some time to process and break it down. He’s like the version 1.5 of a product that is still good but needs some time to adjust. At lightweight, explosive forward pressure is what gives Donald problems, and it’s not what Iaquinta is good at. The reach of Cerrone was also giving Iaquinta problems, and his snapping jab combined with the low kicks are a problem for anyone at 155. Working with Brandon Gibson, his striking has gotten a lot sharper and it’s noticeable. When Al exploded to the pocket, he caught Cerrone by surprise and found a lot of success, but it was few and far between (and mostly limited to the second round). If Ferguson can keep the fight at this range and slice him up with elbows, it might make Cerrone uncomfortable enough to shoot in for a takedown, giving Ferguson a chance to attempt one of his D’Arce chokes. The composure of Cerrone was also noticeable. There were a few times when Donald would come forward and throw combination punches, but he made sure to pivot out immediately instead of sticking around and getting into exchanges. This is going to come in handy against someone as tricky as Ferguson, since a longer, more drawn out fight can give Cowboy more things to worry about and try to analyze, possibly overdoing it. A win for either guy gives them a legitimate claim against Khabib, the champion whom both have been scheduled for in the past but has never worked out. Hopefully before 2019 comes to close, we get to see the Eagle compete against El Cucuy or Cowboy.