Paul's Preview: Renato Moicano vs. Korean Zombie & Gegard Mousasi vs. Rafael Lovato Jr. (Patreon)

Losses are always tough on a fighter, and their next bout is usually a redemption tour of some kind. When the opposite happens and a fighter is on a winning streak, they enter the match up usually feeling extremely confident about their chances. This weekend, both the UFC and Bellator are putting out some intriguing matchups to vie for our attention. In South Carolina, Moicano and Korean Zombie (Chan Sung Jung) will attempt to get back in the winning column after suffering brutal finishes during their last fight out. Across the pond in London, Mousasi defends his Bellator middleweight championship belt against the undefeated Rafael Lovato Jr. as he hopes to keep his Bellator MMA record spotless. Let’s take a closer look at the action this weekend and see how the fighters match up against each other.

Renato Moicano vs Korean Zombie (Chan Sung Jung)

When Moicano and Jung face off against each other on Saturday, they will find some comfort in seeing an opponent that physically resembles their previous combatant. Moicano is a gangly 5’11” Brazilian with a 72” reach, and those numbers are nearly identical to Yair Rodriguez (Jung’s last opponent). Korean Zombie stands at 5’7” with a 72” reach (same height as Jose Aldo, but with a 2” reach advantage). This is not to say that they are facing similar styles, but merely that the height and reach won’t be as unfamiliar for Moicano and Jung. Against Jose Aldo, Moicano spent the first round reacting to Aldo’s forward pressure mixed in with low kicks and hooks, and he didn’t seem as out of place. Despite Aldo being known for his low kicks, Moicano had no problem exchanging kick for kick and timing Aldo’s low kicks to land his jabs and straight punches, similar to how he beat Calvin Kattar. Standing orthodox and bouncing around, Moicano made the unfortunate error that many of Aldo’s previous opponents have: trying to react to Aldo instead of pressuring him with feints. When Moicano did try to get a reaction out of Aldo, it was usually with a long pawing right straight which didn’t draw any real reaction. Even though Aldo might be in the twilight of his career, he is still very fast and his punches to low kicks can hurt you even if you’re shelled up. In the second round, some vicious strikes connected for Aldo and Moicano never recovered, eventually being saved by the referee. The opponents who have successfully beaten Aldo are the ones who drew out the strikes by constantly feinting (Holloway, Volkanovski, McGregor to a certain degree) and getting Aldo to overreact. This might have been a one-off since Moicano has shown a versatile striking arsenal and the natural ability to adapt as the fight goes on. Against Cub Swanson, Moicano did an excellent job of setting up the jab and mixing in hard and soft strikes to get Swanson to crash into a hard jab. Once he was rocked and on the ground, Moicano set up some smooth guard passing and eventually submitted Swanson. When he faced another striker known for his crisp jab in Calvin Kattar, he timed the low kicks every time that Kattar would throw a jab, eventually slowing down the strikes and hampering Kattar’s mobility. Once he knew that Kattar couldn’t return fire as quickly, Moicano did a great job of slipping a now slowed-down jab and countering with a beautiful right straight and smothering Kattar’s hands. Moicano is excellent at reading your movements and exploiting your weaknesses, much like a prime Carlos Condit. Once he knows that a certain strike is bothering you, Moicano and Condit will do it repeatedly until you either quit or it stops working. This isn’t the best of news for the Korean Zombie.

It’s not all doom and gloom for Chan Sung Jung, and the fact that this fight is going the distance actually plays into Zombie’s favor. Jung has earned a massive following all over the world for his fan-friendly style of fighting, and no matter where in the world he fights, you can be sure that he will have a huge fan base in the crowd. It’s no surprise that he was chosen to headlight the UFC’s return to Denver, Colorado during the UFC’s 25th anniversary celebration, an honor he beat out Donald Cerrone for, the most winningest fighter in the UFC who’s also a Colorado native. The fight between Zombie and Rodriguez had flashes of technical brilliance on the offense, but it did leave some striking aficionados more wanting on the defensive side of things. Zombie has a few tools to work with, but he does the basics well. He will wait on the counter in his orthodox stance and wait for the opponent to lead first. Purely going by the hands, it’s clear that Zombie is talented at pressuring you with jabs and feints, setting up a well-timed counter after he evades your punches. Jung’s main tools are his quick jabs, strong right straight, and long uppercut. Even by varying these 3 attacks, it was enough to give Rodriguez fits striking. Both fighters were striking with minimal defense, but Zombie threw more punches than Rodriguez. When the stats were pulled up, Paul Felder (the color commentator) would have to give more credit to Zombie, even though he saw that Rodriguez was beginning to figure out Zombie’s striking patterns. Rodriguez threw an elbow flush earlier in the fight, and by the last round he had the timing down. If the fight had gone to the judges before that last second buzzer-beating upward elbow, Jung would have won the fight. Alas, due to his crowd-pleasing nature, Zombie lunged in for an attempt at finishing the fight and got finished himself. To be fair to Zombie, he was preparing for a completely different opponent in Frankie Edgar, and the last-minute opponent change didn’t do him any favors. By no means are Frankie Edgar and Yair Rodriguez similar in style, and Jung had to adjust to a very flashy striker as opposed to a wrestle-boxer without the right training partners. Before the Rodriguez fight, Jung scored an empathic KO over Dennis Bermudez, which is made even more impressive by the fact that he was coming off a long layoff due to his mandatory military service, and it was the first serious wrestler that he faced. Despite eating some clean right hands early in the fight, Jung timed a well-placed uppercut to catch Bermudez clean on the jaw for the knockout.

When Moicano and Jung face off, it’ll be battle of pressure versus adaptability. Zombie does an excellent job of using his limited tools and physical stature to get in close to his opponents and box them up on the inside. Standing at 5’7”, he’s on the shorter end of the featherweight spectrum, with fighters like Moicano, Holloway, Kattar, and Rodriguez having the height advantage. However, Zombie has a reach that’s the same as Moicano, and is actually longer than a lot of other featherweights (Ortega, Holloway, Lamas, and Aldo). Zombie does his best work by backing you up and getting you to overreact to his feints, at which point he can land jabs, straights, and that long uppercut. Despite not being a heavy takedown artist, Jung is very good on the ground and has a keen awareness of staying on top during scrambles, as this is how he was able to catch Dustin Poirier and Leonard Garcia during their fights. When faced against Moicano, Zombie is going to have to be careful about being predictable since this is what cost him against Yair Rodriguez. At featherweight, Moicano is one of the best at reading your patterns and utilizing the first round to assess where your weaknesses might lie. In some cases like Cub Swanson, he might not even need the full 5 minutes. Where this fight gets interesting is if Jung is able to tire out Moicano. Against Brian Ortega, Moicano was doing an excellent job of landing consistently clean strikes on Ortega’s dome, but he was eating body shots in exchange. By the time the third round started, Moicano was clearly winded and an ill-timed takedown resulted in a guillotine choke that finished him. Jung isn’t the submission artist that Ortega is, but he is savvy enough on the ground to take advantage of an exhausted Moicano. Jung is also susceptible to low kicks (and kicks in general), and we saw that Moicano does a great job of mixing in low kicks to take advantage when fighters step in with the jab. If Zombie is able to time in follow up punches whenever Moicano throws in low kicks, it’ll be interesting to see if Moicano can react in time. Moicano is able to adapt very well on the fly, but when he's hurt or tired, he has shown that he can be exploited just as easily as his opponents. Both fighters are coming off emphatic losses, so it’ll be interesting to see how they come out on Saturday night.

Gegard Mousasi vs Rafael Lovato Jr.

On the Bellator side of things, Gegard Mousasi looks to defend his belt against Rafael Lovato Jr in a matchup that could shake up the middleweight division. In Mousasi’s last fight, he absolutely thrashed an undersized Rory MacDonald in what can be best described as a mercy killing of sorts. Despite being a brilliant all-around MMA fighter, it was evident from the get-go that Mousasi was not hurt by any of MacDonald’s strikes, and ill attempted takedown attempts resulted in some vicious ground and pound from Mousasi that eventually stopped the fight in round 2.  Mousasi has been long regarded by hardcore fans as one of the best fighters in the world, but it’s also known that he’s put in some lackadaisical performances when he’s needed them most. In his Bellator debut against Alexander Shlemenko, an early strike caused Mousasi’s eye to swell up and adjust the fight to a more grappling-heavy exchange. Although it did highlight the adaptability of Mousasi, many media outlets scored the fight for Shlemenko and it didn’t give off impression that Mousasi is one of the best middleweights in the world. In his next fight out, Mousasi was out to prove his doubters wrong and finished Rafael Carvalho in the first round after an early takedown and ground and pound. Although he’s able to excel in all areas of the fight, his next opponent would welcome a takedown from Mousasi.

Rafael Lovato Jr’s grappling credentials are impressive to say the least, and it wouldn’t be a stretch to say that he is probably the most decorated Jiu Jitsu fighter on the Bellator roster (others might contend that this honor belongs to Dillon Danis, but he doesn’t have the same amount of accomplishments at black belt). Being a life long martial artist, Lovato is no stranger to striking since the first style he was introduced to was Jeet Kuen Do and he has an amateur boxing background. Lovato’s transition to MMA has been gradual and Coker has done a good job of slowly matching him up with the right level of competition, but he might run into a brick wall in the form of Mousasi. In his last fight against John Salter, Lovato looked comfortable in this striking exchanges, throwing push kicks and overhands to clip Salter in the early rounds. Despite some success when he rushed in against Salter, Lovato ate a decent amount of low kicks and would get clipped clean by overhands when he would engage in extended brawls. Also, Lovato looked uncomfortable in the clinch against both Salter and Honeycutt, with the former able to land a beautiful hook off the break when they disengaged. A well-timed right hand put Salter on his back, but Lovato wasn’t able to finish the fight in round 2. Lovato was eventually able to submit Salter in round 3 after an ill-advised takedown led to Lovato reversing position and pounding out Salter until his neck got exposed. Standing at 6’3” with a 78” reach, Lovato will enjoy an inch advantage in both departments against Mousasi. It’s hard to see a clear path for a victory in Lovato’s favor when Mousasi has seen it all. In a career that spans over 50 fights and 16 years, Mousasi has collected an arsenal of tools that he can employ against any fighter and make them look mediocre. He’s nullified the wrestling of grapplers like Weidman and Mark Munoz and made other strikers pay with his calculated jabs and use of distance. In his last UFC fight, Mousasi was able to make Weidman work overtime by creating scrambles while on his back and making sure that he was always hooking Weidman’s legs to make sure he would have to fight for every pass. On the feet, Mousasi’s jab is both a prodding tool as well as thudding power strike. He can vary the tempo beautifully and pair it with vicious hooks and straights if he feels that he has you hurt. For Lovato to win, he’s going to have take advantage of Mousasi’s penchant for slow starts and hope to constantly ramp up the pace and make sure Mousasi accepts certain positions. Mousasi should look for opportunities to jab Lovato into the fence where he can clinch and punish him with strikes to the body and throw well-timed hooks off the break. The ground game favors Lovato, but not by much. Having been in there with the likes of Jacare, Thales Leites, and Renato Sobral, Mousasi is no stranger to fighting against dangerous submission artists, and his ability to scramble up presents a genuine area of concern for Lovato. However, Mousasi has been known to get lazy and caught, and stranger things have happened in MMA. June 22 is right around the corner, and should provide a solid night of fights from the #1 and #2 MMA promotions.