Paul's Preview: Junior Dos Santos vs. Francis Ngannou (Patreon)

Junior Dos Santos vs Francis Ngannou

Before Francis Ngannou burst onto the UFC and started collecting jaw bones, Junior Dos Santos (JDS) was the premier knockout artist in the heavyweight division. Making his debut at UFC 90 with a knockout over Fabricio Werdum, JDS developed a reputation as the heavyweight division’s best boxer, and he had the punching power to show it. Although it might seem that his UFC career would be winding down after 11 years in the promotion, he has quietly racked up a 3-fight win streak and he has stated openly that he wants to become champion again. A win over Francis Ngannou would make for a pretty nice argument in a division that’s still fairly shallow (although it’s been getting better). Standing in the way of JDS’s title shot is Francis Ngannou, UFC’s recent on and off prospect whom Dana White can’t decide if he’s the future of the division or a diva who refuses to put in the work necessary to be great. Ngannou has rebounded with back to back wins over a surging Curtis Blaydes and finished off Cain Velasquez in his long-awaited return. The memory of him losing back to back decisions against Stipe Miocic and Derrick Lewis seems so long ago, despite those losses occurring in 2018. Ngannou is looking to prove this his initial 6 fight win streak was no fluke, and that he’s learned from his losses and is ready to challenge again for the belt. Let’s see how these two stack up against each other.

JDS is first and foremost a boxer, and with that comes a set of hands that is one of the best in the division. Standing at 6’4” with a 77” reach, he isn’t the biggest or the strongest among his peers, but his jabs and overhands are enough to give everyone problems. JDS can use his jab to prod, to annoy, and to hurt. Much like middleweight champion Robert Whittaker, Dos Santos uses his lead hand from the orthodox stance to bounce in and out and hit you from range. Where JDS differs slightly is that he will go downstairs to your stomach far more frequently and mix in his straight punches as well. By putting his entire body weight and moving beautifully in a straight line, normal jabs become power strikes and it gets the attention of the opponent immediately. Once he has the opponent overreacting to his body shots by dropping their hands, he will swing the overhand right to catch you clean on the temple. He’s caught many opponents using this tactic, ranging from former champion Cain Velasquez to fellow knockout artist Derrick Lewis. Against Stipe Miocic in their first fight, JDS added in left hooks once he realized that Miocic kept dropping his hands to protect against body jabs and straights. Even when he’s backing up, JDS will throw jabs to keep you from crowding him despite the punches being fairly weak. However, due to his long history in the division, opponents have been able to pinpoint his weaknesses and exploit them.

JDS will constantly keep his lead arm low which makes it quicker to throw jabs to the body, but he sacrifices defensive positions to do so. This is evident whenever he throws his power strikes, especially the overhand right. Against Derrick Lewis, JDS cracked him hard but when he went for a follow up, Lewis countered quickly with his own right uppercut that caught JDS clean and caused him to disengage. This is a bad habit of JDS and it’s been there for a while. This was evident in his fights against Cain and Stipe (the last two of Cain’s and both of Stipe’s), and it surfaced again. It may be a habit he picked up from boxing smaller guys who generally can’t hurt him so he won’t mind going back to defense right away, but against heavyweights it’s a bad idea. JDS also throws kicks naked without step ups, but it works because he’s inviting you to throw hands so he can get into exchanges. This might be ok in theory, but in practice you need to either throw way lower so that your feet can come in time to prepare for exchanges because otherwise you’re just inviting the other guy to get a free overhand strike in. This happened twice in round 1 in the Derrick Lewis fight, and it gave the Black Beast one of his biggest punches. In the second round, he did it again and a slip almost gave Lewis an opportunity to take JDS from behind and land some more strikes. JDS also prefers to use his head movement to evade strikes as opposed to moving laterally/backwards, but this can cost him if his timing is off. Lewis was able to clip him a couple of times when he did this. These are all issues, but the biggest sin that JDS commits is footwork. Even though he has an excellent command of range and punches, JDS has problems with foot movement that has been exploited time and time again. He doesn’t circle out until his back is already against the cage, and once he’s there, he’ll eat a couple of shots on the way out. This begs the question, has Francis Ngannou done his homework?

A closer look at Francis Ngannou shows a man who’s also a feared puncher that has been adding more tools to his striking arsenal. He might not be as reliable as JDS since his gas tank can’t go a full five rounds, but he’s plenty dangerous in the ten to fifteen minute range. Ngannou is able to stay fleet footed and doesn’t have as much labored movement, and it’s night and day compared to his UFC fights against Luis Henrique and the first Curtis Blaydes fight. Ngannou quite literally punched his way into a title fight with Stipe Miocic, but it was clear that he wasn’t ready for the then-champion. Ngannou’s punches looked slow in comparison to Miocic not because Miocic was faster, but because Miocic was able to discern when Ngannou was feinting and when he intended to actually strike. By mixing in his wrestling and timing in shots with jabs and straights, Miocic dominated the fight and left Francis to go back to the drawing board. A follow up match up against Derrick Lewis resulted in one of the most boring fights in the heavyweight division, and it drew unfavorable comparisons to Gabriel Gonzaga vs Kevin Jordan (one of the worst fights in UFC history, despite the fight ending in a knockout). Ngannou was slated to rematch Curtis Blaydes in a fight that was do or die. And boy, did Ngannou deliver.

Ngannou’s second fight with Blaydes lasted less than a minute, but it served as a stark reminder of the terrifying power that he still possesses. After a couple of flicker jabs to get Blaydes’ attention, a shoddy takedown attempt by Blaydes was stuffed and the fight was back on the feet. Once there, Blaydes threw out a jab that Ngannou countered with a clean straight over Blaydes that struck him on temple and the fight was over. To prove that this was no fluke, Ngannou took on Cain Velasquez a few months later and finished him in 26 seconds in the first round. There’s not a whole lot one can learn from Ngannou’s back to back fights, other than he still has frightening power. The very fact that Ngannou can end a fight so quickly is definitely in the back of JDS’s mind, and there are some things that Ngannou does very well. If an opponent decides to get in range of Ngannou without a clear strategy that combines head movements and feints, Ngannou’s uppercuts from either side can catch you clean for a knockout. Both Arlovski and Overeem found this out the hard way when they were in close range too long and got clipped. Considering that Ngannou has an 83” reach, it’s imperative for a fighter to realize that even if you think you’re out of range, you best keep circling just to be on the safe side. By leaning out slightly and using his absurd length to hurt you, this type of counter striking works well against offensive boxers who don’t retreat as quickly and don’t set up their punches carefully. If Ngannou were to step up his feinting game and started doubling and tripling up his jab, it can cause nightmares for anyone at the receiving end.

Since Ngannou fancies himself a counter striker, we might not see him pressuring opponents as much, he prefers to stalk you enough to get you to react so he can counter. If Ngannou can focus on getting Dos Santos to have his back against the cage, one of his nightmare uppercuts can damage Dos Santos on the way out. Even if Dos Santos decides to go low and set up body strikes against Ngannou, he runs the risk of getting clipped on the way in. Since lax footwork, poor ring awareness, and lack of defense after he throws punches has always been a problem for Dos Santos, it’ll be interesting to see if Ngannou can take advantage of them since they all work in his favor. However, there is still danger lurking for Ngannou. In the Miocic fight, we saw that when fatigue sets in, Ngannou’s footwork becomes sloppy and he’s forced to throw arm punches that didn’t threaten to seriously hurt Miocic. Perhaps Dos Santos can drag the fight out to the later rounds and drown Ngannou in the deep waters. His body shots are great for slowing down the pace and getting you to gas out early, and this is the last thing you want to do against a powerful striker like JDS. We’ve seen Dos Santos still move in and out and strike competently even in round 5 (whether he’s winning or losing) and he is no stranger to mixing in kicks to keep things interest. Or Ngannou can take advantage of the holes in JDS’s striking game and make it a short night. Either way, this fight can determine the next contender for the winner between Daniel Cormier and Stipe Miocic.