Paul's Preview: UFC 239 (Patreon)

This 4th of July weekend, the UFC is heading back to Las Vegas for a stacked pay-per-view card. There are two titles on the line as Jon “Bones” Jones defends his light heavyweight belt against surging Thiago “Marreta” Santos and Amanda “Lioness” Nunes looks to beat Holly Holm to cement herself as the greatest women’s bantamweight champion. In a strange grudge match of sorts, Jorge “Gamebred” Masvidal faces off against “Funky” Ben Askren to determine the next possible contender for the welterweight title. Usually with any card that tends to very top heavy, there’s usually a decent chance that one of the fights ends up falling through, so let’s hope that all fighters are in shape and/or don’t engage in any shenanigans before the actual fight. Let’s take a closer look at these matchups and what they offer.

Jon Jones vs. Thiago Santos 

Whether you like him or not, Jones has more or less cleared out the light heavyweight division and is picking off middleweight contenders who are trying their hand at the Jon Jones sweepstakes. Fun fact: Thiago Santos will be the 6th middleweight that Jon defends his title against (Rashad Evans and Lyoto Machida eventually moved down to middleweight, while Chael Sonnen, Vitor Belfort, and Anthony Smith all moved up a weight class). What makes Jones such a nightmare for fighters is that no matter what range you engage him in, he’s dangerous. Standing at 6’4” with a near 85” reach, he can hit you from a distance where you think you’re safe, only to eat a jab or an eye poke (more on that later). At long range, Jones batters you with oblique kicks to your knees and front kicks to your stomach, all while adding in low/high kicks and jabs to the face. If you’re able to get close enough to Jones to be within boxing range, he will establish the clinch where he can punish you with knees to the body, hooks to the midsection, crank your arms up with an overhook, and throws elbows all over your face.

Once Jones thinks you’re all softened up and plenty tired, he’ll take you down from the clinch while softening you up with blows and either viciously pounds you for a TKO or goes for a submission. Many have tried, but none have been able to give Jon that elusive “L” on his record (with the exception of Matt Hamill). Controversy aside, Jones is fascinating to watch live because you get to see someone with who can stick to a game plan and improvise when necessary. In the rematch with Alexander Gustafsson, there was no doubt that Jon Jones lost the first fight due to lack of preparation and being surprised by Gustafsson’s attacks. Early on, Jones established a takedown threat by constantly shooting in to get into the clinch position and used the exit to hit Gustafsson on the way out. Even though Gustafsson was able to corner Jones multiple times, he was limited in his attacks due to the fear of the takedown and the clinch. Jones was able to neutralize Gustafsson in the boxing range by throwing a high volume of kicks and constantly making Gustafson uncomfortable. In the first fight, Jones was constantly pivoting and moving around to meet Gustafson, and he was eating punches while doing so. We can see through Jon Jones how well Greg Jackson and Mike Winklejohn scout their opponents since the same opportunities that were there for Gustafsson in the first fight simply weren’t there in the rematch.

In his most recent fight against Anthony Smith, Jones looked even more relaxed as he dispatched Anthony Smith with ease. Jones came at Smith with that left leg probing from all angles, attacking from the clinch and softening up his body, and eventually taking Smith down and punishing him even more. The left leg alone was able to do so much damage since constantly kicking at Smith’s lead leg caused him to abandon his southpaw stance, giving Jones only one side to worry about. Jones never had to really worry about Smith’s weapons, and his biggest threat was himself. In the 4th round, Jones kneed Smith while he was downed, and if Smith took the DQ win, there isn’t much that he could’ve done. Perhaps the only way Jones loses is by breaking the rules, which he is prone to. It almost came to fruition this fight, but we might not have to wait for long before he does it again. Jon’s biggest worry is him breaking that fine line of legal and illegal moves that he constantly does.

The most egregious of these offenses is definitely the eye poke, and he uses this as much to hurt opponents as he does to disincentive them from rushing forward. Since he’s always given a warning for the first few times, Jones comfortably pokes a couple of times to hurt the vision of his opponents, and by then the opponents are more wary of getting caught. Even if Jones doesn’t go through the act of poking the eyes, the damage is done and now the opponent is scared to rush in for fear of long-term damage to their vision, and Jones is free to pick apart his opponents at range. With such an unheard-of reach, no one else can really mimic that kind of tactic except for Jones, and unless he’s punished early and at the first sign of such offense, he’ll continue to do it over and over again. With all these tools, how does Thiago Santos stack up?

Thiago Santos is on a 4-fight win streak and is coming off a highlight reel performance against Jan Błachowicz. No longer having to cut down to make the 185-pound limit, Santos feels rejuvenated and ready to go the full five rounds when he faces off against Jones. Given that Santos comes from a Muay Thai background, it’s fair to say that his best path to victory is on the feet. In his most recent fight against Błachowicz, Santos showed consistency in his kicking game and committed to setting up his counters, despite building a reputation as a forward-moving brawler. Oblique kicks, low kicks, body kicks, everything was on the menu. Despite having his kicks caught and missing early with his counter hooks, Santos didn’t lose his composure and made sure that kept his pace steady. In the third round, Błachowicz did a quick stance switch from orthodox to southpaw to try and catch Santos with an uppercut, but this led to Santos catching him clean with a left hook. Vicious hammer strikes from the top gave Santos the victory and a winning ticket to the Jon Jones sweepstakes.

Before this fight, Santos put a beating on Jimi Manuwa before knocking him out in the second round. His left hook was on display and it was used to hurt Manuwa multiple times, dropping him twice in the first round and was the blow that ended the fight itself. Despite the power in his strikes, the 6’2” Santos has a 76” reach, almost 8” less than Jones. And that’s not the only extent of his problems. In both fights against Błachowicz and Manuwa, Santos absorbed plenty of damage from both men before he emerged victorious. Against Błachowicz, Santos was troubled by the alternating kicks and punches that was thrown his way, particularly the hook and left kick. When he faced off against Manuwa, Santos was driven to the clinch multiple times and was hit cleanly by Manuwa off the break with elbows. These are some of Jones’ specialties, and he can do it for 25 minutes. The other thing to be wary of is the fact that Jones is constantly moving and making you think, all while you’re absorbing strikes from different angles and have to constantly think about the threat of the takedown. We all know what Jones can do to win, but is there is a path for Santos?  You bet there is!

Now, just because a path is present doesn’t mean that Santos will walk it successfully. He will have to combine elements from different fighters and their specialties in order to pull it off, but it’s not impossible. One of the ways that Jones probes distance is with his front kicks, and many opponents don’t punish him for it. When Badr Hari fought Semmy Schilt the first time, he made sure to check Schilt’s kicks with a cross check. A cross check is performed with the lead leg, and it checks the round kick whenever it’s thrown. The benefit for Santos is that when he settles his foot down, he will be closer to Jones, giving him the distance needed to land one of his left hooks without having to cover as much distance. Gustafsson showed that it is possible to cut off the cage against Jones, although the threat of the takedown kept him from pushing his offense further. In addition, Gustafsson found a way to counter Jones’ kicks by withdrawing his lead leg and blitzing forward. This can also give Santos another opportunity to engage Jones on his terms. If Santos feels that he’s fast enough, he can try to parry Jones’ outside hand and blitz forward, ala Machida. If Santos prefers a slightly more tactical approach, he can use the same method of smothering hands that Daniel Cormier does to keep Jones from engaging in the clinch and throwing strikes off the break. Since Santos has shown a willingness to kick, he should be throwing them on a consistent basis to keep Jones from utilizing his mobility.

Even awkward low kicks thrown in a less than perfect fashion can slow down a fighter, and both Quinton Jackson and Daniel Cormier had some success with this. Santos is a much more prolific kicker than both, and he should not be shy about using them. Since it’s almost inevitable that Santos will get clinched at some point, it makes sense to develop some weapons against Jones in this range. In order to give himself the best chance, Santos will want to make sure that his hands aren’t tied up by Jones, so making sure that he breaks those grips quickly is going to be key. Second, Santos can’t let Jones dig his forehead under his jaw, since this is a position where Jones can start hammering away at the body with knees and hooks off the break before engaging and repeating the dance all over again. Perhaps a well-timed head placement (not headbutt!) could discourage Jones from coming in too quickly and trying to tie up. Henry Cejudo is the master of this technique and uses it quite well when opponents rush in on him, and Evander Holyfield frustrated Mike Tyson with it as well. With all that said, none of this will be easy. Jones is damn near perfect in the octagon, and his skills combined with his penchant for bending the rules can’t be denied. Santos is going to have to be either very aggressive and catch Jones early to win or follow a perfect game plan down to every single detail.

Amanda Nunes vs. Holly Holm

The co-main event will determine if Amanda Nunes can cement herself as the female pound for pound great, or if Holly Holm can rise to the occasion again and dethrone a champion that no one thinks is possible. After losing to Cat Zingano in 2014, Amanda Nunes has been on a tear, winning eight fights straight and defeating the likes of Cris Cyborg, Ronda Rousey, Miesha Tate, and Valentina Shevchenko (twice). Nunes has gone through a murderer’s row of challengers and champions and is making a case for being one of the greatest female fighters ever.  Outside the two Shevchenko matches, she has finished all her recent opponents, with her most recent win being over Cyborg at just 51 seconds. She has very fast hands and even her looping punches get to the opponent quicker than their straight punches. It’s very stylistically similar to Deontay Wilder, although her reach isn’t anything special. Since Cyborg was never challenged in a fight, it was hard to believe your eyes when she got finished. Nunes has been challenged, so it wouldn’t have been a shock if you saw her lose. When Nunes rushed Cyborg, not showing the usual respect that other opponents have, Cyborg got into brawl mode and the composure that she showed in her previous fights went out the window. Standing at 5’8” with a 69” reach, Nunes has fine-tuned her left hook into right straight combination with an aggression that most opponents aren’t ready for. Despite not throwing as many feints or working in combination punching, this works well since Nunes’ right hand is often powerful enough to hurt opponents while they’re backing up. Cyborg, Tate, and Rousey all found this out the hard way after getting tagged with it early in the first round. Despite her power and aggression, Nunes footwork and overall striking game has some glaring holes that can be taken advantage of.

Even though she was able to quickly batter Cyborg, Tate, and Rousey, Shevchenko showed that Nunes can be dealt with if you can use slick movement and counter striking to expose the fact that Nunes squares up after throwing her strikes, and over time these strikes can become predictable. In the matchup, Nunes was cautious about getting caught in the counters of Shevchenko, especially since their first encounter ended up with Shevchenko winning the last round after taking advantage of a failed trip takedown. Knowing that Shevchenko can keep the same pace for all five rounds, Nunes was much more cautious in her approach and wary of the clinch, since this is one the areas that Shevchenko did performed well in by throwing in knees every time they engaged. Shevchenko’s southpaw stance also gave Nunes an additional worry since the straight was coming in quicker than she could counter. It’s clear that whenever Shevchenko moved laterally and hit her with spinning kicks and left straights, Nunes was left trying to time her strikes and had to settle for leg kicking (which was racking up points). Arguably, Shevchenko was the last opponent to give Nunes some real trouble (before she dropped to her more natural weight class at flyweight), and there’s quite a few similarities with Holly Holm.    

Despite going 2-4 in her last 6 fights, Holm recently won a featherweight bout against a debuting Megan Anderson so… she gets to face Nunes for the title. Hey, if you thought the heavyweight division was thin, you haven’t seen the women’s bantamweight. After handily out-striking Megan Anderson to a decision, Holm is being given a chance to shake up her former division by handing Nunes a loss. And you know what? She might be able to pull it off. Much of what gave Nunes problems against Shevchenko are present in Holm. Standing at 5’8” with a 70” reach, Holm is much bigger than Shevchenko and is a much more natural fit at 145 pounds than 135. The most success that Nunes had against Shevchenko were the kicks, something that Holm should welcome cautiously. Holm’s low line kicks did a number against Ronda Rousey, and it should be something she should implement often. In fact, some slight tweaks to the same game plan she used against Ronda Rousey would be perfect to use against Amanda Nunes.

Much of her success came by playing smooth technician to Rousey’s aggressive strikes, once you added in the constant lateral movements, oblique kicks, counter left straights, ring cutting, and quick disengagements from the clinch, the fight was effectively a matter of time before Rousey got finished. Nunes is more willing to trade kicks with Holm, so that’s going to be an added dimension of game planning that Holm will have to account for. However, the trips to takedowns aren’t going to be nearly as worrisome as Rousey, and Holm has proven that she’s strong enough to stave off takedowns by constantly jamming her arms between Rousey’s hips to prevent the throws from happening, and it allowed Holm to throw some right check hooks off the break. By the time the first round was ending, Rousey was exhausted from chasing Holm and was eating left straights whenever she charged in. Mixing in some kicks to throw off Rousey’s defense sealed the deal as a head kick in round 2 knocked out Rousey. This kind of strategy is the perfect kind to utilize against Nunes, and Holm has shown she can do it.

As mentioned earlier, this is going to require that Holm minds her p’s and q’s for the entire fight. Despite the aggressive nature of Nunes, she’s shown patience in the Shevchenko and Raquel Pennington fight, and has no problem going the distance. In order to chip away at that gas tank, Holms should start by hammer kicks and hooks to the body early and often to strike some fatigue. By constantly moving laterally and creating collisions against Nunes, Holm can damage Nunes by using her own aggression against her, since Nunes’ momentum will create a greater force that she will have to absorb while moving forward. To limit Nunes’ own kicking game, constantly mixing in oblique kicks, round kicks, and front kicks can keep her guessing and trying to time her punches. This can give Holm a chance to strike Nunes with an elbow, creating another range in which she can hurt her opponent without overcommitting. Even with all her skills and game planning acumen, Holm hasn’t looked the same since her near flawless performance against Rousey, and Nunes can still end Holm’s night with that right straight. Cyborg was able to eat the majority of the left straights from Holm in order to deliver her own counter rights, and she didn’t mind taking some initial damage on the way in. It’ll honestly depend on which Holly Holm shows up, but we should have an entertaining striking battle for as long as it lasts.

Jorge Masvidal vs Ben Askren

Ever since this fight was announced, fans have been anticipating the clash between the always entertaining Jorge Masvidal and the undefeated wrestling phenom that is Ben Askren. Both fighters are coming off finishes against people they were supposed to lose against. Robbie Lawler was going to stuff Askren’s takedowns and blast his face off, and Darren Till was already talked about being on his way to get redemption by knocking out Masvidal. With their paths now crossing, we can now see if Askren’s win over Lawler was a fluke, or if the experience of Masvidal will be simply too much for Askren to handle. When you take a look at the skillsets that both these guys bring to the table, it’s pretty clear what one wants to do, and there’s more than a decent chance that whichever way it goes, it’ll be anything but a closely contested fight. Let’s break down each fighter, starting with Jorge Masvidal.

Masvidal has always been a fighter’s fighter, someone you know comes to thrown down (if you can convince him that the contract is worth signing). After a very active 2017, Masvidal sat out for the entirety of 2018 due to contract disputes and what he considered to be a lack of meaningful matchups. Despite going just 2-2 in his last four fights, it’s worth noting that his losses were to Demian Maia and Stephen Thompson, both fighters who were in the top 5 during the time of the matchups. When you look at his most recent fight against Darren Till, it’s clear that Masvidal kept up his training during his off time and made sure that his experience would be the determining factor. Having built a reputation as a slow starter and methodical orthodox stance counter striker, there have been many fights that Masvidal feels like he’s won simply by relying on his defensive moves to keep him out of trouble while peppering in some slick counter punches, only to lose a close split decision. Starting with the Cowboy Cerrone fight, Masvidal has made sure to start out more aggressively and make sure that he gets his opponents attention, even if it doesn’t work to his favor (like in the Stephen Thompson fight). Against Till, Masvidal made sure his 5’11” frame and 74” reach wouldn’t be a factor by immediately starting the fight with an unintentional kick to the nuts. He then gets retaliated with a left straight by Till which puts on his ass. It was evident that the speed of Till was giving Masvidal issues, a fighter who is generally hard to land on, period. Over time it became evident that Till was focused on single shots while moving backwards for defense, and Masvidal found his opening. Knowing that he couldn’t get away with pure striking, Masvidal mixed in takedowns to get Till to lower his hands just long enough to start adding in punches up top. A quick shifting of his stance while stepping forward catches Till clean and knocks him out. However, this isn’t the only thing that Masvidal does well.   

Parrying kicks is one of Masvidal’s specialty, and this was on display in the Cowboy fight. Whenever Cerrone would throw a round kick, Masvidal would grab a hold of it, throw it across his body, and return fire with hooks and straights. Even someone of Thompson’s caliber wasn’t immune from this, which caused Thompson to abandon round kicks and focus on side and low line kicks almost exclusively. One of the reasons that he can get opponents to commit to throwing strikes that he can catch is his ability to manipulate the rhythm of the fight. Instead of simply trying to work off feinting and footwork alone, Masvidal does a great job of breaking his own offensive patterns and creating an off-beat for his opponents. Some fighters like Błachowicz do this with herky-jerky movements, but Masvidal makes it look smooth because of his timing. Against guys like Cowboy, Ross Pearson, and Jake Ellenberger, Masvidal was giving them all different looks in the offense department: throwing fast jabs and straights in one quick motion, then feinting, then jabbing slowly, and then quickly jabbing again and throwing a hook afterwards. It doesn’t matter if the jabs are powerful or not, they serve their ultimate purpose of dulling the opponents’ senses. JDS puts some serious power behind his jabs, but he doesn’t always land them with much frequency. Masvidal is constantly throwing them to set you up for an unseen shot in the near future. Now this may be all well and good, but isn’t Askren looking to tie up Masvidal and not box with him?

Ben Askren’s bread and butter is the ground game, and he absolutely needs to take this fight to the ground if he wants to have a chance at finishing the fight. Standing at 5’11” with a 72” reach, Askren isn’t exactly the biggest guy at welterweight, and he sure isn’t the most physically imposing. What Askren does best is get you into tie ups where he can use his unusual strength to tire you out from awkward positions while you carry his weight. Once he feels enough of your strength is diverted to one area, he will switch over to another tie up to get your legs. His style of chain wrestling is unique in that it doesn’t rely on explosive movements, rather it hinges on Askren’s ability to slow down your reactions to the point where everything comes to a slow halt, like having sand in your gears, and then he can methodically strikes you from positions that are hard to defend. It seems simple enough, but so far no one has been able to stop Askren from doing this over and over again. There have been a few that have come close, but it’s been few and far between. In April 2015, Askren faced off against Luis Santos who gave him one of his toughest fights to date. It was clear that Askren was having trouble taking down Santos and was eating strikes on his way in. Each attempt became more and more telegraphed before an eye poke from Askren to Santos ended the fight in a No Contest.

He then rattled off 5 straight wins, four in One Championship before making a successful debut by choking out Robbie Lawler by technical submission (controversy aside, that squeeze was incredibly tight).  Askren looked vulnerable in the early goings of the fight against Lawler, and he courted early disaster when a double leg takedown into a back-take attempt got him slammed right on his head. After surviving a vicious ground and pound, Askren was able to get Lawler into his half guard where he started to rebuild his base. Setting up his underhooks to stop the strikes, Askren got back to his knees where he was able to get back to his feet while tying up both of Lawler’s arms. Lawler sensed the danger and disengaged, bringing the fight back to striking range. Askren kept plodding forward, with no real footwork to speak of. He used his lead jab from orthodox position to tie up his opponents’ hands so he can establish a proper range for another tie up. The scary thing about Askren’s grappling is that whether he has you in overhooks or underhooks, he can build his next set up whether you decide to stay in the same position or pummel out. Lawler was constantly fighting off Askren’s overhooks and eventually succumbs to a double leg takedown. A sloppy attempt at getting back to his feet exposed his neck for Askren to sink in a bulldog choke. Despite the controversial win, there was no doubt that the fight proved that Askren is tough, but he can definitely be hurt on his feet. Does Masvidal have the tools to solve this issue?

For Masvidal to win, he’s going to have to dig deep through his bag of tricks in order to keep Askren from tying him up and find ways to scramble back quickly without exposing his limbs. One the key things that Masvidal will have to do is keep Askren from simply plodding forward and giving him the grappling exchanges he’s looking for. Boxing footwork is different from a wrestlering stance, and Masvidal would do well to remember that he should always control the inside lanes that Askren needs in order to close the distance. Masvidal’s constant use of jabs and rhythm manipulation would do wonders in getting Askren to overreact and shoot in without a real set up, and it could create opportunities for hooks and uppercuts down the line. Askren isn’t a prolific kicker, so at least that’s one less area for Masvidal to worry about.

It might seem counterintuitive but timing the kicks immediately after a sloppy takedown could serve as a deterrent as well as another way for Masvidal to rack up points. Calf kicks are notoriously hard to defend against, even for the quickest of wrestlers. Setting up low line kicks can also keep Askren at a distance and could cause him to shoot in early. Keep in mind that Masvidal’s own takedown defense isn’t bad at all, hovering around the 80% mark. He was able to handle most of the takedowns against Demian Maia, Rustam Khabilov, and Ben Henderson. Masvidal was able to get his back to the fence, defend the takedown, and reverse positions quite handily. Masvidal can use this position to try and damage Askren to the body, sneak in a few strikes off the clinch, and go back to jabbing and throwing hooks to Askren’s body. It’s been proven that even though Askren is a solid fighter, he can get tired if enough unsuccessful attempts are made on his end. Masvidal has fought enough grapplers and has made tons of mistakes against them. Whether it’s lingering too long with his lead leg in front or not scrambling off quick enough when they pass his guard, Masvidal’s lack of urgency has cost him in the past. We’ll see on Saturday night if he can correct his wrongs, or if his old demons catch up to him again in the form of the curly haired f**k, Ben Askren.