Paul's Preview: RDA vs. Edwards (Patreon)

Rafael Dos Anjos vs Leon Edwards

A technical striker that has a surprisingly good wrestling game. A southpaw who can stance switch at just the right moment. A fighter who willingly engages their opponents in their comfort zone in order to beat them at their own game. The above descriptions can summarize either Rafael Dos Anjos (RDA) or Leon Edwards, and it’s fascinating to see how many similarities they share. Having built up a career as a legitimate great in the lightweight division, RDA was tired of cutting down to the 155-pound limit and decided to try his hand at the welterweight division. After rattling off three straight wins, RDA ran into wrestling powerhouses Colby Covington and Kamaru Usman back to back, forcing him to address an area of his game that has cost him in the past. RDA rebounded nicely against Kevin Lee and looks to continue his climb back to the top at 170. In the other corner, Leon Edwards is on a 7-fight win streak, with his last two victories being over Cowboy Cerrone and Gunnar Nelson. Having been skipped over for a fight with Jorge Masvidal, Edwards got a consolation prize in the form of a matchup against RDA. These two will fight for a chance to shine a little bit brighter in the welterweight division, since the landscape is already so crowded with contenders who all have legitimate claims for the next title shot. Let’s delve further into the matchup.

RDA started out his career as a BJJ specialist, but in the past 5 years he has added a pressure-heavy counter-striking game along with an excellent offensive wrestling arsenal that has seen him take out some of the very best at lightweight and welterweight. When RDA was at Kings MMA gym, his head trainer Rafael Cordeiro instilled a unique movement pattern that combined the best parts of forward pressure while working off counters. Despite being 5’8” with a 70” reach, RDA made the most of his size limitations through vigilant preparation where he would be able to work off his strengths. By methodically backing his opponent into the fence with excellent ring craft and foot placement, RDA’s opponents are forced to either retreat off quickly to avoid being cornered or launch their own strikes to create the space needed for an escape. This played right into RDA’s game plan of having the opponent’s now open to his own counter punches, mostly to the body and legs. Knowing the importance of tiring out an opponent over the long haul, RDA’s beautiful hooks and knees to the body drains an opponent’s gas tank, and his low kicks inhibit any explosive movements. The hooks and kicks also serve as a great way for him to corner his opponents from shifting laterally, and it sets them up perfectly for a double leg against the cage. This was used to perfection against Anthony Pettis, and it was on display in his fight against Kevin Lee.

Speaking of Kevin Lee, one of the things that RDA has really done well is add in kicks to his pressure-but-counter style. Against both Kevin Lee and Robbie Lawler, RDA hammered both fighters lead legs and hurt them with kicks to the body. RDA wasn’t afraid to strike both Robbie’s open side and calves in order to keep him upright and constantly guessing. When Lawler’s legs were hurt was forced to open up his stance a bit more, RDA adjusted and just started throwing inside leg kicks, punting it just a bit more and making it harder for Lawler to come back with powerful strikes. The clinch is also an important area for RDA since this is one of the ways he can set up his takedowns or if he think he can score with elbows and uppercuts off the break. Although he’s not a powerful puncher at welterweight, RDA does a great job of timing his hooks into the clinch (often into the double collar tie) where he can wear you down with knees. This serves the dual purpose of keeping you from aggressively countering him while tiring you out by having to carry the entire upper body weight of RDA. If RDA feels that he’s hurt you enough, he can either unload strikes for a TKO or power through a takedown and submit you with a choke. This doesn’t mean that he doesn’t have any flaws, and the problem with having such a long career is that your opponents have a long library of fights to glean over and scout for a perfect counterplan. Can Leon Edwards come up with one?

Leon Edwards has built up quite the reputation as one of the most cerebral fighters in the welterweight division. Standing at a lean 6’2” with a 74” reach, he is perfectly sized at 170 and his striking is one of the best in the weight class. Having built up a reputation as one of the best fighters coming out of England (Edwards was the former BAMMA welterweight champion), Edwards fell victim to the Octagon jitters as he dropped a split decision to Cláudio Silva in his UFC debut. Since then, Edwards is 9-1 in the UFC, with his only loss being to current welterweight champion, Kamaru Usman. A striker that is comfortable both moving forwards and backwards, Edwards has an excellent game regardless of being on the offense or defense. Having one of the better jabs in the division, Edwards can set you up by feinting his 1-2 into a round kick from his southpaw side, and he’s helped tremendously by his constant feinting of hips and shoulders. Always minding his p’s and q’s, Edwards’ foot placement is always on point and any time you look at where his feet are, you’ll see that his right foot is almost always on the outside of his opponent’s left foot, a disciplined trait that you see in most southpaws. Edwards also plays the counter game extremely well, and just like Conor McGregor, he will find a way to sneak in his left straight whenever an opponent comes in sloppy and without their guard up. Edwards also has a pretty good grappling toolbox, especially when you consider that he hails from a country not known for its wrestlers. He addressed this concern by making sure to shore up his wrestling deficiencies by training at AKA whenever he’s stateside, and it’s done wonders.

Against Gunnar Nelson, Edwards wasn’t afraid to engage in the clinch with someone who has such a distinct advantage in the grappling department. He will dig his head under the jaw of his opponents while clinching (a favorite of the AKA camp) as well as switch the placements of his hips so that he’s in the optimal position to come up and throw strikes from the opposite stance, especially the elbows. Edwards did this to both Cerrone and Nelson, establishing a threat at all ranges. Edwards also knees to the body very well while clinching and can hand fight with the best of them, and it reminds me of Josh Barnett’s performance against Roy Nelson where Barnett kept Nelson from getting any significant strikes off and frustrated him for the entire fight. Against Cerrone in particular, he knew all facets of his game and knew how to shut him down no matter where the fight went, showing that his attention to detail can last for 5 rounds.  He also showed great TDD against someone like Usman, who struggled in the first round to take down Edwards. Against Nelson, Edwards was willing to engage with the superior grappler on the mats by going for a takedown in round 3. It’s clear that whatever Edwards lacks in power and speed, he covers with discipline and solid technique. How would a matchup with RDA go?        

Moving forward, RDA is amazing. When pushed against the fence himself, RDA looks much more vulnerable. In his two losses at welterweight (and against other grapplers like Nurmagomedov and Guida), RDA has shown that he can be taken down when pressured moving back since he prioritizes stuffing the takedown while shifting his hips instead of keeping his opponents from clasping their hands, ala Max Holloway. RDA is at his best when pressure fighting while working body shots and low kicks off the counters, but he has shown vulnerability against stronger wrestlers. Although Edwards isn’t going to be blasting double legs from the opening bell, he has shown the ability to attack opponents at their weakest, and it just so happens that RDA’s has been exploited time and time again. If Edwards isn’t keen on going to the ground against RDA, he can take a closer look at RDA’s fights against Lawler and Lee to study some habits that can be taken advantage of. When facing off against another southpaw, RDA focused heavily on his kicks from range, but his head was left vulnerable to Lawler’s left straight when he got lazy coming up after throwing a 1-2. This is something that Edwards does very well, and he isn’t afraid of letting RDA come forward if it means he’ll get a chance to counter. Kevin Lee was also able to land some clean kicks to the body of RDA since the threat of takedowns always had RDA wary of having to defend a double leg if it came. If Edwards can establish solid clinch work against the fence into a takedown, he can drill down the threat to the back of RDA’s mind to set up some more strikes on the feet. Edwards also does a great job of constantly feinting, and this can draw out the counters early from RDA and expose him to extending body shots. Lateral movements into straight punches also caught RDA clean against Eddie Alvarez, and this is something Edwards can replicate. Having to pressure fighters while being ready on the counters is exhausting, but RDA has been more successful than not taking this approach. He can do this to Edwards just as well, since Edwards wouldn't be the first striker to be at the wrong end of RDA’s aggression.

Despite being undersized in the division, RDA has no problem against his bigger opponents. Making his welterweight debut against Tarec Saffiedine, the last Strikeforce welterweight champion. Perhaps due to his willingness to go to the ground against other strikers, RDA can throw kicks with impunity and does so often. Edwards is calculated in his approach, but when pressured and against the fence, he has been taken down and controlled, and can be vulnerable to this after the first round. RDA has made it no secret that he welcomes the clinch, an area of strength for Edwards. Since RDA is the shorter fighter, Edwards will have to go even lower to utilize his favorite forehead-to-jaw maneuver, a move that can give RDA the chance to grab a double collar tie. From here, it’ll be a toss up of who can score more elbows, hooks, and knees first, or who can do more damage with them. RDA has shown multiple times that he can go five full rounds at a high pace, although Edwards has done this as well against Cerrone. Can Edwards do the same with a workhorse like Dos Anjos? This fight is an intriguing matchup that feels like a good way to see if either is ready for a chance to move up in the welterweight division. No matter who wins, I would love to see the winner face off against another strong wrestler to see how they handle the matchup. For RDA, a victory will put him on a solid path towards getting his revenge matches against Covington and Usman. For Edwards a win will put his win streak at 8, making a solid case that he should have his next fight be for the title (whenever that is).