Paul's Preview: Max Holloway vs Frankie Edgar (Patreon)

When it comes to featherweights, few have rattled off the body count that Max Holloway has. Outside of a handful of guys in the division, Holloway has fought everyone and more often than not he has come out with a “W.” Surprisingly, Frankie Edgar and Max Holloway have never crossed paths (despite being slated for fights in the past), but they’ll look to rectify that at UFC 240. This will be roughly the 3rd time that a matchup between the two has been scheduled, so let’s hope the MMA gods let us finally see this go down. Although Holloway’s most recent fight resulted in a decision loss against Dustin Poirier, Holloway has been damn near untouchable at featherweight. He’ll be putting his title on the line against Frankie Edgar, a former lightweight champion and perennial contender for the featherweight title. Even though this might seem like a gigantic size mismatch, Frankie Edgar has done a fantastic job against anyone not named Jose Aldo or Brian Ortega. Can Edgar finally win the title in his third shot for the belt, or will Holloway remain the featherweight king?

Max Holloway is one of the tallest fighters in the division at 5’11”, but his reach is surprisingly short (69”). Even with this limitation, he has managed to showcase one of the best striking acumen in all of MMA. One of the things that even casual observers will notice is his constant use of the jab. Much like other notable fighters like Robert Whittaker and Nate Diaz, Holloway uses the jab to probe, blind, hurt, block, and eventually frustrate you into making mistakes. What’s important to note is that unlike many of his opponents, Holloway’s pace is simply overwhelming and it doesn’t give you time to adjust and adapt. When Holloway jabs, you can be sure that a right straight is soon to follow. In addition to making your life miserable with this simple 1-2, Holloway loves throwing hooks, and will often mix in hooks off the jab to the body or head, and he’s not shy about doubling up on those either. All this seems like standard stuff that most fighters should be able to do well, but what makes Holloway so special are the other little things that he does to make this simple toolkit work to their maximum efficiency.

Before TJ Dillashaw really came into his own (pre-EPO scandal) and while Dominick Cruz was out nursing multiple injuries, Holloway became the de facto king of stance switching. Holloway is completely comfortable fighting you from either side, and what’s scary is that he’s effective at both. There are things that he favors from one stance (jabs in orthodox, straights in southpaw), but he can move smoothly with very little tells. He can do this by making sure that he switches while in motion and adding in false directions. By faking going one way and switching stances, his opponents are left having to adjust to a now new stance, but Holloway is already setting up another strike or feint. This kind of work rate was seen beautifully in his fights against Cub Swanson, Anthony Pettis, and Jose Aldo. This kind of footwork also means that opponents now have a new power strike that the need to avoid, and it’s what has caused so many to get caught off guard. Even if you’re thinking of stalking Max simply by moving forward, good luck. Holloway does a great job of staying disciplined and rarely moves straight back, opting instead to take at most 2-3 steps behind before circling off laterally, usually hitting you with a counter as you continue to move in. It’s not that Holloway is faster than you, but he’s thinking quicker and getting you overthink and react to traps that he’s already set. If fighting is a marathon, you’re at mile 7 while Holloway is at mile 9, taunting you to catch up. Speaking of traps, one of the best ones that Holloway sets up aren’t the ones that actually hurt you.

Feinting is an art of its own, but if done sloppily it makes you look like a cheap imitation of a what slick fighter looks like. Holloway is the genuine article and his fights two fights against Aldo were brilliant demonstrations of this. Aldo is at his best when he’s bombarding opponents with power strikes and leg kicks, but in order to do so he’s operating on a hair trigger at all times. Holloway took advantage of this by advancing forward with his lead leg turned slightly outwards in a more squared stance, ready to absorb the kicks. Holloway knew he would have to be on extreme alert early in the rounds since this is when Aldo is at his most dangerous, and he was correct. Because he was constantly feinting and getting Aldo to overreact, it also meant that Holloway was draining the gas tank of Aldo on his terms. By the end of the second round in both fights, Aldo was visibly winded and was slowing down. It wasn’t simply because he exploded so often, but because Holloway constantly kept him moving and getting him to bite on almost all his feints. In fact, his best moments in the Brian Ortega fight and Dustin Poirier rematch came when he got both fighters to overreact so he can sneak in his own counters. By feinting punches to the head, Holloway is also able to sneak in an obscene amount of body shots, which also does a neat trick of tiring out opponents even quicker. With all these tools working out for Holloway, what does Frankie Edgar bring to the table?

Edgar is definitely the underdog in this fight, but it’s a position that he’s come to relish. Always undersized at lightweight, Edgar looks slightly more at home against featherweights (although there are always the rare exceptions like Holloway). Even though Holloway has a very good striking arsenal, Edgar is no slouch when it comes to attacks on the feet. Edgar is a workhorse who lives and dies by his discipline, and you see this in both his wins and losses. Standing at 5’6” with a 68” reach, he’ll have to make sure that he can get on the inside of Holloway if he wants to do any real damage. If there is one thing that you can count on Edgar to do, it’s following a game plan. Against fighters like Cub Swanson and Urijah Faber, Edgar was constantly on the move while mixing in his jabs and feints. This drew out counters pretty easily, and all Edgar had to do was wait for a strike, parry it off, and return with a punch of his own. One of the best things about getting an opponent to commit to a strike is that it exposes their hips for a takedown, and that’s exactly what Frankie wants. However, Edgar does not NEED to get the fight to the ground, he simply wants you to think that he does. Even if he’s not successful in completing a single or double leg takedown, Edgar now has incepted the idea in your mind that it’s a real possibility. Now he can get to work on adding in his favorite strikes.

If the opponent is able to successfully defend the takedown, Edgar will hammer with quick punches after releasing the legs/hips. At any point in the future, even simply dipping lower than usual will have opponents overreacting to a potential takedown. BJ Penn, Faber, Swanson, and Jeremy Stephens all got caught clean by various punches and kicks that Edgar set up with his level changes. A fairly common follow up to his level change is Edgar doubling or tripling up his jabs to the face and body, and it has worked in almost all his fights. Once you’re worried about the constant jabs, Edgar will also sneak in straights or overhands. Since the hip motion that Edgar uses for this is so similar to a takedown attempt, opponents often lower their bodies in a sprawl and get hit pretty clean by the straight or overhand. If you catch on to that combo, no worries, Edgar will mix in kicks to your lead leg to give you another limb to worry about. Once you think you have Edgar’s striking arsenal memorized, he’ll throw in hooks to the body to give you another variable. This is all before Edgar takes you down, and he’s a nightmare for a lot of fighters once the fight hits the canvas.

On the occasion that Edgar isn’t able to lure you into a double leg takedown, he does a fantastic job of incorporating the knee pick into his grappling game. It pairs nicely with his jab, and is a real threat since the opponent isn’t sure if its going for the head or shoulder to set up for the takedown. Against Faber and Penn, Edgar was able to use this consistently since it didn’t rely on the explosive power that you would normally need for a double leg takedown (and you can still score with a jab if the takedown fails). Against the fence, Edgar can work his way down to you legs, take you down, and hold you in place with stifling ground and pound. Having spent over a decade at the famed Ricardo Almeida camp and training regularly at Renzo Gracie’s, Edgar is no slouch on the ground and can defend submissions against the best of them. A prime BJ Penn threw everything he had against Edgar, and he was never in a real submission threat at any point in their fights. In his match against Yair Rodriguez, Edgar was able to avoid triangles and sweeps by constantly improving his position and hammering Rodriguez with ground and pound. Edgar constantly stayed heavy on the hips and poor Rodriguez never had a chance. All these tools are great, but Edgar is going up against one of the best in the division’s history, and someone who has beaten Aldo twice (something Edgar failed to accomplish). Can Edgar pull it off?

Holloway has looked vulnerable in spurts, and against some opponents he’s left his lead leg in orthodox stance out for far too long. Being reliant on the jab means that you’re sacrificing your lead leg to be punted out, and it’s something Edgar has demonstrated a knack for in the past. Edgar has shown against many opponents that he can dictate range pretty well, since he either has to stay all the way out to avoid getting picked apart or in your face so that his reach becomes viable. Even though Holloway is excellent at setting up feints, Edgar is also very good in this category. By mixing in his wrestling chops, Edgar presents a ground threat that none of Holloway’s recent opponents have shown (not even Brian Ortega). Holloway has an excellent takedown defense game by preventing you from clamping your hands together, but Edgar has shown that his knee picks don’t need this prerequisite. Even though Holloway can draw out attacks from you with jabs, it might not be as effective against someone who level changes as frequently as Edgar. Holloway does do a great job of constantly staying in motion and moving laterally, and the knock on Edgar has been that he does tend to attack in a straight line (this is what made him so vulnerable to Aldo’s pivots in both his fights). At UFC 240, we’ll get to see if the Max Holloway that lost to Dustin Poirier was a fluke, or if Edgar can finally be a champion in two different weight classes.