Paul's Preview: Lawler vs. Covington (Patreon)

Back in May of 2002, twenty-year-old Robbie Lawler made his debut at UFC 37. To give you a sense of how long ago that was, every other competitor on that card has retired and moved on, except for B.J. Penn (although an argument can be made that he should’ve been retired years ago). In 2002, Colby Covington was gearing up for his high school as a freshman while Lawler went 3-0 in the UFC, damn near killing Tiki Ghosn on the same card as Tito Ortiz vs Ken Shamrock. Lawler has been fighting for a long time, and despite his recent slump he’s still a dangerous welterweight who’s just a few wins away from another title shot. Standing in Lawler’s way is Colby Covington, a former teammate from his time at American Top Team, who’s also a grinding wrestler that seems to have cardio for days. It’s true that Covington’s personality leaves a lot to be desired, but his wrestling has given many of his opponents fits and has led to a 6-fight win streak. Let’s take a closer look and see how this fight might possibly play out.

Robbie Lawler has experienced an overall resurgence of sorts since re-entering the UFC after the Strikeforce merger. Standing at 5’11” with a 74” reach, nothing suggests that Lawler is a powerhouse fighter that has a ton of size and reach on his opponents. What makes Lawler such a nightmare to fight against is that no matter who he’s facing, he can turn on the violence at the drop of a hat. The moment Lawler senses that you might be hurt, he will not hesitate to swarm in on you with a bit of the old ultraviolence. Lawler hasn’t really changed who he is as a fighter, he’s just become more refined and selective with his strikes. Some of Lawler’s staples have carried over from his days at the Miletich team, including his southpaw stance, love of the right hook, and a willingness to get into brawls even if he’s winning the striking exchanges. During his most recent fights, Lawler has shown a more patient approach where he will carefully gauge the distance and work through a game plan that has been set by his team. In his first title fight against Johny Hendricks, Lawler spent the majority of the match focused on defending the takedown and aiming almost exclusively for Hendricks’ head. In the rematch, Lawler did a fantastic job of mixing in body strikes (with punches and kicks), which paid dividends as the fight wore on and he was the fresher fighter between the two. The rematch was so close that many in the media actually scored the fight for Hendricks, but Lawler’s ability to stay less tired probably won him the fight on the judge’s scorecard. What was also notable in the rematch with Hendricks was Lawler’s ability to defend the takedowns on a consistent basis. Before Ben Askren, Hendricks was the most accomplished wrestler that Lawler had faced in the UFC. Hendricks was able to land only 29% of his takedowns (5 out of 17), and once he got the fight to the ground he couldn’t do much of anything. While defending the double and single legs, Lawler hammered Hendricks to the body, sapping him of energy and racking up points on the judge’s scorecards. After winning the title, Lawler went out to defend his title against Rory MacDonald and Carlos Condit.

Some of Lawler’s favorite moves are enough to give anyone trouble, especially coming from such a heavy-handed southpaw. Lawler’s right hook into left straight is timed beautifully, and it was best displayed in his title fight against MacDonald. Lawler hooks off his opponent’s jabs, which gives him the chance to smother their offense while coming in with some of his own strikes. By adding in body kicks and left straights, the opponent is left guessing as to which strike is going to follow, often getting hit with one or the other. Lawler has also become very adept at feinting and almost sliding in and out of position, making it harder for his opponents to time him and try to come up with their own attacks. When you look at Lawler purely by his skillset and fighting style, it’s hard to imagine that this was the same guy that was getting into wild brawls and getting dropped by a jab from Nick Diaz. Lawler redefined himself as a savvy striker that can mix in straight punches, hooks, slick head movement, and excellent take down defense instead of the vicious brawler that limited much of his early career. Despite his longevity and reign as a champion not so long ago, there are still some bad habits of his that are still present, even today.

Although Lawler is billed as a striker, there is one move more than others that give him serious problems: low kicks. Going back to his first loss against Pete Spratt, the record books will show that he lost via TKO due to a hip injury, but the fight itself was distinct in that it showed a glaring weakness in Lawler’s striking: his lack of defense to the low kicks. Despite swarming in on Spratt and even slamming him down, Lawler ate kick after kick until he had difficulty standing. As his career went on, other fighters noticed this habit and have taken advantage. Melvin Manhoef almost took Lawler’s leg clean off during their matchup in the Strikeforce days, and both Hendricks and Rafael Dos Anjos had a lot of success whenever they threw low kicks. Since Lawler relies so heavily on head movement, it means that his legs are often planted and ripe for getting punted. Dos Anjos in particular had a field day in their 5-round fight, since both were southpaws and Dos Anjos could kick Lawler’s lead leg and body with fewer repercussions. Lawler also has a habit of relying too much on his offensive tools that he sometimes doesn’t recognize his opponents next moves until it’s too late. Rory MacDonald was able to get Lawler to drop his hands to protect his body from a kick before going upstairs, and Hendricks was able to keep Lawler at the end of his combinations just to land a kick at the end. Ben Askren doesn’t have the best striking (in fact, it’s quite bad), but he was able to close the distance against Lawler to initiate a grappling exchange. This does lead to some potential issues against Colby Covington.

Wrestlers are a plenty in the welterweight division, but none have made themselves more of a villain than Colby Covington. There is nothing to suggest that Covington is a physical specimen. In fact, him and Lawler are identical in size, minus 2 inches of reach for Covington. What sets Covington apart from a lot of the other fighters at 170 is his pace. Outside of current champion Kamaru Usman, there is almost no one that can keep the level of grinding top pressure that Covington can. Fighters like Rafael Dos Anjos likes mixing in pressure striking to complement his ground game and Tyron Woodley has the knockout power to end the fight instantly, but they don’t rely on constantly needing to keep the fight on the ground. Standing in the southpaw stance, Covington likes to wade in slowly and methodically to pick you apart. Despite his wrestling heavy match against Rafael Dos Anjos where he won the interim title, Covington actually has decent striking. Even though he has a limited arsenal, he makes full use of his tools. With the knowledge that takedowns are in his back pocket, Covington is comfortable moving forward and mixing in his kicks and his punches, daring his opponents to shoot in on him. Some of his most frequent moves include the left high kick, right hook to jab, and overhand left. None of these by themselves are fight enders, but they are used to score points and to get his opponents worry less about the impending takedowns. Speaking of which, the takedowns is where Covington really shines.

Although Covington lacks the raw strength to brutalize opponents with ground and pound, his gas tank is well-known and allows him to try some flashier moves during his striking phase. After throwing spinning kicks or elbows, Covington knows that his opponents are on the back foot and easier to try force down since they aren’t in the best position to sprawl. There isn’t one singular takedown that opponents need to look out for, as Covington does a good job of chain wrestling and going for a variety of entries. Single leg, double leg, knee tap, or back takes are all on the table for Covington; he’s not picky about which method he uses. Once he has you on the ground, Covington stays busy with ground and pound, mixing in heavier punches with lighter ones to make sure he doesn’t burn himself out. Even though he’s not hurting you significantly with his ground and pound, he’s not tiring himself out either. Outside of a clean KO or a slick submission, it’s hard to see Covington losing a decision. Does this mean that Lawler has no chance?

Given almost two decades of experience, it would be foolish to count out Lawler. Although Lawler has habits that can be exploited, Covington hasn’t faced anyone like Lawler before. Covington has been rattled on his feet before by the likes of Dos Anjos and has looked awkward at times after striking exchanges. In fact, this might be the area where Covington is most vulnerable: post-strike. Much like many grapplers turned strikers before him, Covington has the habit of admiring his work and hanging out too long in the open. He’s been able to get away with it since many of his opponents fear the takedown and are hesitant to counter. The rumor has always been that Covington is avoiding matchups against other strong wrestlers since they can exploit this habit and won’t be worried about making the fight a grappling affair. Although Lawler isn’t on the same level when it comes to wrestling chops, his utilization of the butterfly guard is great, and gave both MacDonald and Hendricks fits whenever the fight went to the ground. Lawler is also great at sprawling on opponents and will make you pay if your takedown attempt is sloppy by hammering your body with elbows and throwing knees off the clinch break. The one area that Lawler can really push Covington is the striking exchanges when Covington throws a punch or a kick and stays within range for a second too long. Unless Covington starts following up his combinations with low kicks like there’s no tomorrow, Lawler won’t hesitate in coming forward to pressure Covington some more. This can create a situation where Covington attempts a takedown that Lawler is prepared to defend, or Covington moving straight back to the fence where Lawler can unload with hooks to the body and head. Covington also likes to attack in a straight line, and Lawler has shown the ability to dart in and out of tight spots to land straights, ala Eddie Alvarez and Miguel Cotto. Even though the hype that Covington self generates is cringeworthy, he’s genuinely a good fighter that relies on a solid understanding of basics that he combines with an excellent pace. Lawler is going to have to use all of his veteran savvy to remind the younger Covington that fighting is as much about experience as it is about youth.