Paul's Preview: UFC 241 (Patreon)

When it comes to the UFC heavyweight division, there is a huge discrepancy between the elite and the rest of the division. Outside of a few prospects, some fearsome strikers, and a handful of aging legends, the heavyweight division isn’t the UFC’s strongest. However, at the top of the heap sits Daniel Cormier, one of the best ever to grace the Octagon, and right behind him is Stipe Miocic, the only fighter to have successfully defended the heavyweight title three consecutive times. Both these men will square off in a rematch, and there’s a lot at stake. Cormier wants to prove that he doesn’t need to have a win over Jon Jones to be a legitimate champion, two wins over Miocic more than cements his spot as one of the best heavyweights in MMA history. Miocic wants to prove that his knockout loss was a fluke and he’s much better than that first round finish indicates. Also on the card, Nate Diaz returns from a near 3 year layoff in a potential barnburner against Anthony Pettis. These two strikers couldn’t be more different, so that clash of styles will prove to be interesting. Finally, rounding out the PPV card, Yoel Romero looks to rebound from his loss against Robert Whittaker by stopping the undefeated Paulo Costa. Let’s start from the top.

Daniel Cormier vs Stipe Miocic

When it comes to Cormier, it can be argued that he was born at the wrong time. If Cormier was just a few years younger, he might have been able to go up even further in his wrestling career by not having to meet Cael Sanderson. If Cormier was born just a bit later, he might be able to seriously give Jon Jones enough trouble to knock him off before he became the phenom that he is. As it stands, Cormier has 10 losses in his amateur wrestling record and 6 of those losses are to Sanderson. In MMA, Cormier has losses only to Jon Jones, and technically it’s just one on his record since the second fight against Jones was ruled a no-contest. At heavyweight, Cormier doesn’t have the same burden of needing to avenge his loss, and he’s done quite well in the weight class. Going in to his first fight with Miocic, Cormier was fresh off a win over Volkan Oezdemir. Despite being a completely different fighter from Miocic, a lot of the same tools that Cormier used to beat Oezdemir were present in his victory over Miocic. Given that Cormier is only 5’11” with a 73” reach, he’s usually going to be the undersized fighter at both light heavyweight and heavyweight. This could have been a problem since his shorter reach and orthodox stance would mean that he can’t initiate grappling exchanges to utilize his world class wrestling, but Cormier got around this limitation quite nicely.

Against both Oezdemir and Miocic, Cormier stuck both his hands out like a Muay Thai fighter (or prime George Foreman if you prefer a boxing example) and swatted away at the jabs and straights that came his way. This wasn’t the prettiest of defenses, but it absolutely stifled the offense of both fighters. If they wanted to try and get around this defense by swinging with hooks and uppercuts, Cormier could time these to initiate a single leg takedown or blitz down the center with his own jabs and straights. A pure hand fight situation also gives Cormier a chance to get a better read on his taller opponents and sense what they were going to do next. A previous opponent of Cormier, Anthony Johnson, made a career out of knocking men out senseless and preventing them from taking him down. Johnson had a lot of success with his takedown defense by utilizing a similar strategy, keeping his hands out to ensure that he always had a feel for his opponents so that he can sense the shift in their weight before they went for a takedown (if this sounds familiar, Conor McGregor does this as well). Phil Davis found this out the hard way when got battered on the feet and couldn’t score a takedown against Johnson. Cormier survived Johnson’s scary power by engaging him in the hand fighting before tiring him out and taking him down multiple times. Cormier doesn’t simply shoot repeatedly and hope he gets it right, he makes sure that you’re distracted with his punches and clinch attempts before he goes for the real thing.

Speaking of clinches, Cormier utilizes the clinch beautifully and it’s one of the areas where he truly shines. Even if the opponent can get an underhook in against Cormier, he will pummel for better position and use the scramble as an opportunity to connect with punches. One of his favorite moves is to get the collar tie with his left arm and as you disengage, he can use his right hand to sneak in a hook or an uppercut. If the punches don’t hurt you, Cormier can use this moment to dive in for a single leg.  It doesn’t matter whether you keep battling for the clinch or land strikes of your own, Cormier is looking for these moments so he can initiate his best phase of combat. Even Jon Jones was repeatedly hurt by these in their first matchup, and only after adjusting by holding on to Cormier’s wrist and targeting his midsection was he able to take over. The punch that knocked out Miocic the first time came from a collar tie into a hook, and Oezdemir was taken down from this position as well. Cormier is heading into this fight off a dominant victory over Derrick Lewis, but Miocic has been away from fighting, pining for a rematch while tending to his new family. Does Miocic have the tools to win?

People tend to forget how good Miocic is, and his short fight against Cormier didn’t show his full potential. Even though he couldn’t get a lot of his offense going, it’s important to note how well-rounded Miocic is, and how outside of Junior Dos Santos, Miocic might be the best boxer in the division. Unlike Dos Santos who uses his jabs at different levels and speed, Miocic prefers to stand orthodox and throw off his opponents by feinting frequently and mixing in his 1-2’s to do most of the damage. Against Francis Ngannou, Miocic pumped his shoulders and stepped in to convince Ngannou that a straight was coming down the pipe, only to stop halfway and jab instead. Sometimes he opted to flick the jab to distract Ngannou, and other times he would step in and throw his legs into the jab to legitimately hurt him. That’s the key to Miocic’s jab, you don’t know when and where it’s going or how powerful it’s going to be. Thrown off-rhythm, the jab is a nightmare for counter-strikers and many of them have been undone by this very basic move. It could also serve as a way for Miocic to give Cormier fits in the rematch. Even though Cormier’s hands out defense blocked most of the jabs, if Miocic is able to mix in jabs to the body and double/triple jabs, it could force Cormier to decide if he wants to lower his hands or fall into his bad habit of leaning out to his right, where he’s vulnerable. Jones was able to catch Cormier with a head kick in their second fight, and Oezdemir was able to catch Cormier with some left hands this way. Perhaps Miocic can surprise Cormier by finishing his punches with a left hook, something he hasn’t shown an affinity for in the past but can now bring out to surprise the champ.

At some point, both fighters are going to get into clinch position, and despite Cormier’s accomplishments as a wrestler and fighter, Miocic is no slouch and has the size to trouble Cormier. Jones found trouble in the clinch battle against Cormier, but he found that in addition to controlling Cormier’s wrists, he could use his taller frame to lean on Cormier and hammer in some strikes while keeping his hips far away. Jones also wedged his head under Cormier’s chin and hurt his body with knees, all while landing elbows on Cormier’s free side. This is by no means an easy task but given that Miocic is 6’4” and has an 80” reach, he should be able to pull off a similar strategy. Kicks are also going to be important for both fighters, and it was surprisingly Cormier who threw more of them in their matchup. Since Miocic was so reliant on pumping on the jab, it gave Cormier ample opportunity to land low kicks flush while moving his head off center, and it should be something that Miocic’s camp addresses. The low line kicks gave Cormier problems in both his fights against Jones, and he addressed this by withdrawing his lead leg when he saw them coming. Miocic can use this time to blitz down the center or throw rear straight kicks, just to give Cormier something else to worry about.

Cormier has proven that he can hang with the best (and become the best) in the division, and Miocic is truly an elite fighter that has the tools to become the champion again. Cormier can win this fight by utilizing a similar strategy to their first one, especially if Miocic hasn’t fixed his habit of leaving his chin out after getting into striking exchanges. Miocic hasn’t really shown a varied skill set when it comes to striking, but his limited tools are more than enough to get the job done. While Cormier has nothing left to prove, another victory here can put his stamp as one of the best ever in the heavyweight division. A tough, gritty victory over Cormier can also cement Miocic as the next generation of heavyweights who can rule the division in a long title reign. Time will tell how we view these two titans.

Anthony Pettis vs Nate Diaz

Anthony Pettis was at one point considered to be the best in the division and the future of the sport. Standing at 5’10” with a 73” reach, he utilizes a flashy kicking game that he pairs up with slick groundwork to make life difficult for you at different phases of combat. Stay out at range and you’ll get pieced up. Go in for a takedown and you can find yourself at the wrong end of a submission from guard. However, Rafael Dos Anjos put a stop on the hype train and wrote out the blueprint for every other competent wrestler to utilize against Pettis. Despite his blink-and-you’ll-miss type kicks to the body and head, Pettis never really developed the punches to really complement his kicks. Compounding this problem is that Pettis never developed a great wrestling game to stop the takedowns or keep himself from getting crowded against fence. When Pettis has his hips shut down either on the ground or backed up with nowhere to move, he becomes much less of a threat and easier to read. Even in a losing effort, Gilbert Melendez showed that by holding onto the hips of Pettis, he was able to expose the limited tools that Pettis has at this range. Dustin Poirier and Eddie Alvarez did a combination of what Dos Anjos and Melendez did by jabbing Pettis and pressuring him towards the fence, shooting in for a takedown, and keeping him down and scoring points. The key to success is to repeat this strategy and not stay down for too long, since this is where Pettis can snatch up a triangle or armbar out of nowhere. Michael Chiesa and Ben Henderson are excellent grapplers but both got submitted from the bottom by Pettis, showing that he only needs a moment to cinch a victory. I said earlier that it’s a shame that Pettis never really developed the punches to complement his kicking game, but it doesn’t mean that he can’t hurt you with them. Although he lacks the slick combination work that someone like Max Holloway or Dustin Poirier have, he can still crack and catch you off guard if you become complacent. This is how Tony Ferguson got dropped and had to use every trick he knew to escape danger, and how Stephen Thompson got knocked out cold by a superman punch. Perhaps sensing that his best days are behind him, Pettis has moved up to welterweight and seems interested in fun matchups. He’s given his wish by getting Nate Diaz in his return fight.

Nate Diaz is a fighter’s fighter, someone that other combatants will tune in to watch. His flippant demeanor, take-no-shit attitude, and willingness to scrap makes him a fan favorite. After spending nearly 3 years away from the Octagon, a matchup with Pettis provided to be interesting enough for Diaz to come out of his self-imposed sabbatical and make some more money while reppin’ the 209. Diaz’s last two fights were against Conor McGregor, and he’s 1-1 against him. Those two matches alone were apparently enough to set up Diaz financially since he hasn’t had fights since, and he was also able to parlay his notoriety to lucrative sponsorship opportunities. Outside of the trash talk, the fights themselves showed an evolution in the fighting style of Nate Diaz. At 6’ with a 76” reach, Diaz is on the taller end of the lightweight division, but average as a welterweight. What has given him most of his victories is his stifling boxing, with his submission game a close second. Much like his older brother Nick, Nate Diaz likes to move forward while mixing in his high-volume boxing with taunts. The latter might seem like an odd offensive tactic, but it absolutely works in Diaz’s favor. Look at his matchup against Michael Johnson and you can visibly see Johnson getting frustrated and lunging for punches that he knows are too far, but he can’t help himself. Against McGregor, Diaz kept shrugging his shoulders and egging McGregor to keep coming, chipping away at his confidence and gas tank. Diaz isn’t scared of taking some damage to dish them out, and his constant use of jabs and hooks to the body overwhelm opponents if they choose to stand for extended periods of time. Against strikers like McGregor, Cerrone, and Johnson, Diaz constantly jabbed to block the vision and targeted the noses, hoping to make it harder to breathe. Paired with punches to the body to sap away at your gas tank, it’s only a matter of time before you start sucking wind and looking for a way out. When it comes to a fight between Pettis and Diaz, this fight becomes interesting for different reasons.

Although both Pettis and Diaz are billed as strikers with great grappling ability, they prefer different tools on the feet and on the ground. Pettis needs space to hurt you with kicks and fights at range, while Diaz looks to smother you with volume and would like nothing more than to start wailing on you with your back against the fence. On the ground, Pettis is a wizard off his back and can snatch up armbars, triangles, and guillotines if you get lazy, and Diaz prefers to tire you out on the feet so he can initiate the grappling offensively so he can finish you with a choke or an armbar. This fight is going to come down to range, and who can dictate it. Pettis has been stalked down before by other strikers, and in his fight against Tony Ferguson, he was pedaling back for most of the fight while Ferguson mixed in stance switching, jabs from southpaw, and rear kicks to constantly keep Pettis from establishing his own striking. Diaz isn’t Ferguson, but the principles are still there. Pettis wants to be the one on offense, constantly hunting down Diaz and keeping him at the end of his kicks. The shorter and more compact McGregor was able to hurt Diaz in his rematch by utilizing a more varied kicking game, and by timing his round kicks with Diaz’s jab, McGregor was able to follow up with his left straight. This also caused Diaz problems since he couldn’t stay heavy on his lead foot and it took the sting off his jabs. It’s no secret that the narrow stance of Diaz makes him vulnerable to low kicks, and almost everyone Diaz opponent has been able to land some on him (even in defeat). Pettis is going to have get started on kicking low early if he wants to stifle the mobility of Diaz. If he does get taken down, Pettis has a pretty good tripod sweep escape that he’s hit before, notably against Poirier. Diaz also got swept in a similar move against McGregor, so he isn’t bulletproof against sweeps either.  

For Diaz to win, he’s going to have to use a similar strategy that he utilized in the McGregor fights and against Cerrone. Given that Pettis stands orthodox to Diaz’s southpaw, this gives him a great opportunity to bury the lead jab of Pettis and force the fight to an open stance. Pettis opts for dipping out in order create space and keep kicking, but this also gives Diaz an opportunity to keep jabbing without the fear of an immediate counterattack. Add in constant feinting and body shots (including the sheer volume of punches) and this can tire out Pettis quickly if he opts to try and use speed to avoid punishment. Just when Pettis thinks he’s out of range, Diaz can smack him with a straight after a lazy jab. Look no further than both McGregor and Michael Johnson fights to see this in action. Also, if Diaz feels that Pettis isn’t attacking him enough, expect to see him put his forearms up to guard his face and move forward, Justin Gaethje style, in order to draw out the straights and hooks. This gives Diaz the opportunity to get in close and initiate the clinch, a position he does absolutely fantastic in. By slapping on a collar tie or letting his opponents get one, Diaz can start hammering the body. If the opponent reaches the arm out, Diaz can swat it away and throw a straight down the middle. If that path is blocked, Diaz will go around it by throwing hooks.

The fight is going to come down to what range this fight is fought at. At long range, this favors Pettis since he can utilize his kicking game and make life miserable for Diaz, and with such a long layoff it’s hard to say how good Diaz will look. It’s important for Pettis not to think of Diaz’s kicking game as nonexistent, he can throw kicks in as well since Diaz has no fear of being on his back. Even against Cerrone, Diaz started to pick up his lead leg as the fight wore on and came down hard on it to get in closer and hurt Cerrone with punches. Diaz is also willing to lose the first few exchanges if it means that he can get in close to hurt you and combined with his gas tank, he can be a nightmare for someone who fights at a high pace like Pettis. At close range, Diaz has the volume and conditioning to drag this out and overwhelm you, and this is the exact kind of game plan that Max Holloway utilized to beat Pettis (high volume, fast pace, multiple feints). No matter what, this matchup has all the potential to be fight of the night, and it’s good to see Nate Diaz back.  

Yoel Romero vs. Paulo Costa

Rounding out the main three fights, we have Cuban powerhouse Yoel Romero trying to stop the juggernaut that is Paulo Costa. In the UFC, Romero is essentially 9-Whittaker, with his only two losses coming to the current undisputed middleweight champion. Both fighters are similar in height and reach (6’ and 74” for Romero/6’ and 72” for Costa), but the thing that fans compare the most are the physiques. Before Costa made his UFC debut in 2017, Romero was considered the most chiseled in the weight class, almost as if he was created straight out of a video game. Outside of some physical comparisons, their fighting styles are very different. Costa is 28 years old and undefeated, seemingly peaking at just the right time in his career. Romero is 42 and has decades of wrestling wear and tear on his body, not to mention two brutal wars against Robert Whittaker. Costa feels that after blitzing through Johny Hendricks and Uriah Hall, he should get a step up in competition. He gets to face off against someone he's personally called out in Yoel Romero. On paper, this makes no sense. Romero is an incredibly gifted wrestler with one strike KO power, and Costa could build his record up with easier matchups. Perhaps Costa saw something in Romero’s performances, or he’s overestimating his own abilities. To understand Costa’s chances, let’s take a closer look at Romero.

One look at Romero should tell you that this is not a man to be fucked with. He’s built like a video game character, and unfortunately, he inherited some of their design flaws. Much like how a super strong fighter isn’t fast or built for endurance, Romero has struggled in the past if the fight starts going the distance. To work around this, Romero will pace himself in between bursts of activity, and his rests in between serve as a way for him to appear passive but in control. This also lets him explode from a southpaw position, not giving his opponents time to react. His flying knee against Chris Weidman and left cross against Luke Rockhold came as both opponents were lulled into a false sense of safety by the slow movements by Romero that directly preceded his explosion. Romero’s record shows that he rarely goes out there to blitz you in the first minute or so of the fight, he will go through long stretches of inactivity to convince you that it’s ok to let your guard down. Outside of his UFC debut, all of Romero’s finishes come in round 3. This means that he could very well be losing the entire fight, but in an instant, he can turn things around and win emphatically. What isn’t given enough credit is Romero’s fight IQ.

When the fight starts, Romero uses these initial moments to gather intel on your movements. By staying passive and observing, Romero can see what kind of strikes you prefer, what pace you’re working at, what range you need to be effective, and how you set up takedowns. He was getting taken down by Weidman, hooked by Rockhold, and kicked repeatedly by Machida, but that was just a recon mission. Romero will eventually pick up on these habits and just when you think you have a read on him, Romero will start to work in sudden bursts and not give you a chance to think things through. This worked supremely well until he ran into Robert Whittaker, who proved that he’s the champion for a reason (we’ll get into more on his strategy against Romero later). Can Paulo Costa replicate what Whittaker was able to do twice?

Paulo Costa burst onto the UFC and has finished all his opponents in 2 rounds or less. Standing in orthodox position, Costa constantly moves forward to hammer you with round kicks and hooks to the head and body. This has been his bread and butter, and although it seems simple enough to defend against, the sheer speed and power at which they come at has proven to be troublesome. Costa might have a limited striking arsenal, but the strikes he does have are pretty impressive. Against Hendricks, Costa kept moving forward and was able to cut off the lateral movement and keep Hendricks from circling out or shooting in. Once he was in position, Costa would swing in hooks and mix it up with his straight punches, keeping Hendricks at range to pepper him with kicks. Against Hall, forward pressure and hooks were the key to folding Hall, as he overwhelmed him with strikes to the body and head. While these were impressive, there were some glaring holes in Costa’s defense. Costa’s stance makes him susceptible to low kicks, and both Hendricks and Hall were able to kick him repeatedly with virtually no counterattack. Hall is no slouch on the feet either and hurt Costa with his lightning quick jab. Hall was even able to drop him briefly with a short left hook while in close range. When he was on the receiving end of the jabs, Costa was content covering up and staying in place, knowing that his turn to strike would be coming up. This kind of strategy could be suicide against someone like Romero, who would love nothing more than for you stay in place while he explodes.

For Costa to be successful, he can use a combination of the game plan that Robert Whittaker and Tim Kennedy used against Romero. Whittaker took advantage of the moments in the fight where Romero was inactive and jabbed up Romero with his hands and threw tons of rear front kicks/low line kicks. By constantly moving, feinting, and pressuring, Whittaker kept Romero from starting his offense and made sure that Romero was never given the “rest” that he’s accustomed to. For ten rounds, Whittaker had to mind his p’s and q’s to keep from getting finished, and he was nearly done for at various moments in the rematch. When he got taken down, Whittaker tied down Romero by grapevining his legs and varying between overhooks and underhooks to keep him from advancing. Whenever he was taken down, Whittaker got back to the fence and used it to walk himself back up to his feet. Costa should also look towards Tim Kennedy’s performance against Romero, where a blitz towards the end of round 2 almost ended Romero’s night. Kennedy faked a level change that got Romero to lower his base, and then blasted him with two uppercuts in a row to put him queer street. Romero can be hurt, it’s just not often that it happens.

A Romero victory will consist of leg kicks, using the cross guard with high elbows, blitzing Costa during times he covers up, and testing Costa’s ability on the ground. As mentioned before, Costa’s stance is well-suited for throwing hooks and round kicks, but the spacing between his legs makes it hard for him to check kicks. Romero is no stranger to the low-line kick as he used it to stifle and hurt Robert Whittaker in their first meeting. Speaking of hurting Whittaker, the second time they fought is when Romero really took to utilizing the high cross guard. Whenever Romero put his arms up high with his elbows flared out, Whittaker had a tough time connecting and hurt his hands at some point. This kept Whittaker from using the jab as he often does, and when he did, you could see that they were coming less and less frequently. For someone who throws as many hooks as Costa does, this strategy might prove helpful, although he will have to watch out for how vulnerable his body is. Costa also has a bad habit of simply covering up for defense and letting you go until it’s his turn to strike, and this is where Romero can do a lot of damage. If Costa isn’t ready for the full range of attacks that Romero is capable of, it can be a short night. There was a moment in the Machida fight (2:18 in the second round) where Romero throws a flying knee from the clinch, squats down immediately to get Machida to sprawl, and then is back southpaw stance to start fighting again. This entire sequence took two seconds and Machida barely reacted in time. This is the kind of explosive movement that Romero is capable of, and if he starts to shoot in for takedowns that could be serious trouble. On that topic, no one has been able to seriously keep Costa on his back for extended periods, so it’ll be interesting to see what kind of ground game Costa has. So far, it’s a mystery and we’ll have to assume that Romero has the advantage, but everything is possible in the fight game. Romero’s brutal ground and pound should not be taken lightly, as both Tim Kennedy and Lyoto Machida can attest. If Romero gets past Costa in convincing fashion, he can set up for a match against the winner of the Whittaker-Adesanya fight, hoping that the third time's the charm. If Costa emerges victorious, he can also make a case for a title shot, and we’ll see middleweight fighters 30 and under fight for the belt. The division can finally have new blood to mix things up!