Paul's Preview: UFC 242 Khabib vs Poirier (Patreon)

The UFC returns to Abu Dhabi for the third time in its promotional history, and the main event is headlined by lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov facing off against interim lightweight champion Dustin Poirier. Perhaps it’s due to Nurmagomedov’s religion (it most definitely is), but the UFC is banking on Khabib defending his title successfully so they can return soon for another outing in the region. Playing spoiler to that fantasy will be Dustin Poirier, who has looked impressive in his recent run at lightweight and is coming off a great win over featherweight king Max Holloway. Poirier has a pretty big hill to climb in the form of Khabib, a grinding wrestler who is not only unbeaten but has looked scarier in each outing. Does Poirier have the tools necessary to dethrone the champ? Or will Khabib steamroll Poirier like the 27 others before him? To understand this matchup, let’s take a closer look at these two combatants and what they bring to the table.  

Dustin Poirier started off his UFC career with a promising 4 fight win streak, but when slotted in the main event against Chan Sung Jung, he got outclassed in every aspect of the fight. It started a pattern for Poirier where he would win due to toughness and brawling, but his technical deficiencies would cost him against top level competition. The 5’9” Poirier was getting tired of cutting down to featherweight, so he moved up to lightweight and was having a decent win streak until he ran (literally) into Michael Johnson. Getting knocked out by Johnson might have been the best thing that happened to Poirier. Poirier had a bad habit of rushing in with his left straight from his southpaw stance, famously leaving his chin wide up in the air. He had moments where he rectified this briefly from fight to fight, but they didn’t always stick. Against McGregor, he made sure to bring his right hand up immediately after he set off a combination to make sure he blocked McGregor’s left straight. However, he left his temples exposed and got clipped by repeated left hooks and got finished in the first round. Against Joe Duffy, Poirier would leap in and get hammered to the body with uppercuts, slowing him down significantly (although Poirier would eek out a decision). Poirier was on a 4-fight win streak when he faced off against Michael Johnson, and despite stance switching and catching Johnson clean, Poirier’s old habit of rushing in proved to be his downfall. While throwing a left straight down the middle, Johnson stepped back and caught Poirier clean with a right straight and left hook, knocking him out cold and changing Poirier for the better. Poirier had to do some soul searching, and since that fight he’s gone 5-0-1, winning fights against former champs Anthony Pettis, Eddie Alvarez, Justin Gaethje (WSOF still counts), and current featherweight champion Max Holloway. The biggest adjustment that Poirier made was to his jab.

Immediately after the Johnson fight, Poirier got matched up against Jim Miller and he showed everyone a crisp, powerful jab that had been used only seldom before. With a 72” reach, Poirier doesn’t have the longest range in the division, but he’s able to make it work by emphasizing other attributes. By pressuring opponents with good timing, Poirier could now focus on setting his left straight properly, and mixing in feints meant that opponents overreacted, giving Poirier great opportunities to counter. It also helps that Poirier stands southpaw, giving him the open stance he needs to operate more freely. Jim Miller was expecting a brawl but got hit with the jab all night and countered every time he swung at air. Poirier was always a decent kicker, but these were often set up haphazardly without a larger striking strategy in place. Once Poirier added in his jabs on a more consistent basis, it allowed him to mix in kicks more fluidly since his opponents would be expecting the jabs, only to be met with low and high kicks. Poirier will double up on the jab, feint a left straight, and throw a low kick to an opponent who’s already shelled up expecting a punch. This kind of combination striking was nowhere in Poirier’s arsenal beforehand, but it has now become a staple and makes him a well-rounded threat. Improvements to Poirier’s game would be incomplete without mentioning his improvements to defense. Poirier is still a brawler at heart and will welcome exchanges if he feels that he’s closing in on victory. To ensure that a situation like the Johnson fight doesn’t happen again, Poirier committed to moving his head off-line (either by slipping or moving slightly back) and using the shoulder roll more frequently. These two defensive moves give Poirier the visibility he needs to counter effectively, but still absorb strikes on his shoulders and forearms if necessary.       

All these improvements were on full display in his most recent fights. Poirier’s fights against Pettis showed that he can mix in an aggressive pressure game with smothering grappling, not giving Pettis the space he needs to create damage while at range. Poirier kept dominant position on the ground and made sure to always stay on top of Pettis, smashing him on top while avoiding submissions from arguably Pettis’s best position, his guard. Justin Gaethje hammered Poirier’s lead leg over and over again with the low kick, but Poirier made this a part of his plan by shooting the left straight every time Gaethje was on one leg. This eventually resulted in a beautiful counter left hand catching Gaethje right on button and setting up a TKO finish. In both Alvarez fights, Poirier made sure to constantly move back every time Alvarez pressured him forward and jabbed on the retreat to keep Alvarez at bay. By adding in kicks at the end of his jabs, Alvarez’s short reach was limited even further, and his usual endless gas tank was being sapped away. In his interim lightweight title fight against Holloway, Poirier’s use of high guard and shoulder roll kept him safe and allowed him to survive the sheer volume of Holloway. By constantly shifting his weight and moving around when blocking, Holloway was never given the stationary target he needed to start piling on damage. It didn’t help that Holloway’s shots were absorbed mostly on Poirier’s elbows, shoulders, and forehead, damaging his hands and keeping him from landing anything significant. On the flipside, Poirier’s naturally bigger frame and power shots connected cleanly on a frustrated Holloway and wobbled him on many occasions. Holloway is used to being the one throwing the jabs, so it was a different experience for him to be on the receiving end of so many of them. This clearly gave him pause, since Poirier soon followed up his jabs with check hooks and left straights. This played out for 5 rounds and Poirier was crowned the interim lightweight champion. To become undisputed champion, he’s going to have to face off and beat Khabib Nurmagomedov.

In 27 fights, no one has been able to come up with an answer to Khabib. A product of a lifetime of wrestling in the Caucasus region, Khabib is also well-versed in judo and sambo, winning two world championships in the latter. Since making his UFC debut in 2011, he has won 11 fights in a row, losing only a single round during that stretch. This is an insane statistic and if you consider the killers that he’s faced during that run, it makes the feat all the more impressive. Despite racking up victory after victory, Khabib was only given a title shot after 9 straight wins, and even then, it was for the vacant title. Khabib had a dominant performance against Al Iaquinta, but critics and commentators said the fight “exposed” his limited striking, and that he would get destroyed against McGregor. When Khabib did face off against the Irishman, the fight wasn’t even close. Khabib more than held his own in the striking exchanges, and the battle on the mat was completely one-sided. Khabib’s striking is his most frequent criticism, but is it actually that bad?

When you consider that Khabib is using his stand up striking to set up his takedowns, his stance, footwork, and the types of strikes he uses makes complete sense. Comparing him to other famous Russian MMA fighters of yore, Khabib’s punches and kicks aren’t too far off from guys like Igor Vovchanchyn and Fedor Emelianenko. Both Vovchanchyn and Emelianenko weren’t textbook examples of perfect striking, but when you consider that their backgrounds were also in sambo, you start to see a pattern. Since sambo blends striking, wrestling, throws, and submissions, their stance needs to be different from the likes of boxing and muay Thai (the main two striking bases in MMA). The hooks and straights might not be picture perfect, but they serve as an important tool for them to use in closing the distance and getting the clinch. Hooks in particular are thrown in an unorthodox fashion (with the wrists turned all the way forward, like you’re checking the time on a wristwatch), but they generate a lot of power quickly and gives you an opportunity to grab your opponent immediately after. Khabib will also mix in well timed uppercuts to get his opponents to bolt upright since they tend to stay low and ready to sprawl. He showed this against both Rafael dos Anjos and Iaquinta, and even displayed a pretty decent jabbing arsenal against the latter. Iaquinta attempted to stifle potential takedowns by keeping a very low stance, but this resulted in him eating countless jabs and getting bloodied up.  

As mentioned before, Khabib’s most recent fight against McGregor showed an improved striking game and where he was able to out-strike McGregor. Although he kept his lead hand low against Iaquinta, Khabib was more disciplined about bringing his jabbing hand forward against McGregor. This also gave McGregor problems since Khabib started mixing in shoulder feints with his jabs, and he could never quite tell when a jab or a right straight was coming forward. By adding in takedown attempts, McGregor was on full alert for the wrestling, but couldn’t help but get clipped by Khabib’s striking. This sequence dropped McGregor in the second round, and it was around this time that the MMA world finally realized what GSP and others grappler-based fighters knew: the threat of a takedown can make the so-so wrestler into a credible striking threat. Daniel Cormier also doesn’t have the best textbook striking, but with his hands out reaching for his opponents jabs and straights, he can get close enough to stifle their offense and be in range for the clinch. This was harder to execute against the southpaw McGregor, but Khabib was able to use it to get a collar tie and unload with elbows and uppercuts. Khabib also did a great job of timing McGregor’s left hand, and as soon as he saw it being thrown, Khabib was ducking in on McGregor’s hips and working for a takedown.

Standing in the orthodox stance at 5’10” with a 70” reach, Khabib’s not the biggest in the division but he’s not the smallest either. His reach is on the shorter end, which makes it all the more important to get the fight to the ground. Everyone and their mom know that Khabib is a mauler on the ground, but that’s not giving enough credit to the rest of his game. Khabib doesn’t simply power guys down and use his strength the entire time. Instead, Khabib does an excellent job of setting up his strikes to get in range so he can duck in on an opponent’s hips or clinch them up so he can work them towards the fence. He doesn’t mind spending the entire round attempting to drag you down, have you work your way back up, only to repeat the process until you’re exhausted from the effort, in which case he can now throw you repeatedly and hold you in place with minimal resistance. A closer look at his fights shows that opponents do a decent job of scrambling up, executing granby rolls, and wall-walking their way back up against Khabib. However, the longer the fights go, the more it becomes clear that this starts to take a toll on the opponents. Khabib now knows that once he has the body lock on you, you will be too tired to work your way out or explode. Abel Trujillo did a great job of rolling out against Khabib, but as the fight wore on Khabib was able to spot the rolls before they happened and kept him in place.

Khabib minimizes his chance of getting guillotined on the way in by making sure that his single leg/high crotch takedowns are set up with his head on the outside. This also mitigates the chances of opponents retaliating with knees and uppercuts and sets up Khabib’s chain wrestling by giving him the option of using a trip, reaping the outside leg, running the pipe, or switching to a double leg. Perhaps due to his sambo background, Khabib is always wary of the submission threats when he attempts takedowns, but he has never seriously been put in danger by any submission. When it comes to submissions, Khabib doesn’t muscle them in immediately, hoping that he can emulate Frank Mir and end the fight quickly. Khabib methodically pressures you by obtaining the body lock, controlling position on the ground, taking out your wrists so you can’t balance properly, and riding out on your legs while piling on the strikes. If you happen to be smashed up against the fence on your back, Khabib will channel a vintage Fedor performance by standing upright and windmilling punches down. He doesn’t always go for this approach, but when he does you can audibly hear the strikes as they crash into the opponent’s body and head. Khabib will usually opt to pound you out on his knees while controlling your base and targets your head and body equally. This saps your gas tank and disorients you even if you’re able to find your way back up. Khabib has no problem repeating this process ad nauseam until the opponent is exhausted and primed for a submission. All of Khabib’s submission wins in the UFC came in rounds 3 or later. It’s going to be tough for Poirier to figure out the puzzle that is Khabib, but likewise, Khabib is going to have to find a way to work around Poirier’s improved striking and fight IQ. What kind of game plans can we expect from both fighters?

For Poirier, he’s going to have to stay at range and be diligent in his footwork. Khabib does his best when he’s pressured you towards the fence and smothers you in for a takedown, but out in the open he’s a lot more vulnerable. Even though higher volume presents more danger, Poirier is going to have to play with fire and pour on more strikes to keep Khabib at range. When he’s at the receiving end of jabs and straights, Khabib can get careless and eat some clean shots or shoot in wildly with no set up. Michael Johnson and Al Iaquinta were able to thwart most of Khabib’s takedowns in the center of the cage, but once they were pinned against the fence it was another story. By pairing excellent footwork with his educated jab, Poirier must constantly keep Khabib at the end of his strikes and keep him from closing the distance. Khabib likes to reach out to try and prevent the jabs and straights from connecting, but this is where Poirier can take a page out of Jose Aldo and Stipe Miocic’s playbooks and mix in feints and hooks to the body. Despite an improved jabbing game, Khabib will keep his lead hand low often enough that Poirier might be able to take advantage of it. Khabib is as durable as they come, but even his teammate Daniel Cormier was no match for consistent shots to the body. It won’t simply be enough to punch more, Poirier will also have to mix in intelligent feinting to keep Khabib guessing and double/triple his jabs (especially to the midsection). Once he’s able to connect with strikes, Poirier will have to get on his bike and pedal out of there especially since Khabib will be keen on setting up punches of his own. If Poirier is going to plant his feet and throw, it’ll be wise to do it with his lead foot out and possibly go for a clean left straight. This would allow Poirier to pivot out right after and follow up with strikes from Khabib’s blind side, a favorite of Manny Pacquiao.

It’s almost a sure thing that at some point, Khabib will get this fight to the fence. Once he’s there, Khabib will work on setting up a single side underhook so he can start unloading with punches to the jaw and body while digging his forehead under the opponent’s chin. This is a go-to move for guys like Cormier and Cain Velasquez, and its effectiveness is well-documented. For Poirier, it’s going to be crucial for him to stop the opposite hand from striking him, and controlling the wrist is a good starting point. Holloway was able to build his takedown defense strategy simply by grabbing his opponents outside wrist and keeping it from connecting. It’s extremely hard to finish a takedown with one arm, and even attempting it leaves you open to counter while being off balance. If Poirier does find himself on the ground, it might be in his best interest to turtle from out in the open and work his way out. Nick Diaz did this repeatedly in his match up against GSP, and Trujillo did it against Khabib when his granby rolls stopped working. McGregor also did a decent job of controlling Khabib’s free hand and prevent some takedowns along the fence. Yes, McGregor also grabbed handfuls of Khabib’s shorts and dug his fingers into Khabib’s gloves, but the times that he did make an effort to keep Khabib from locking his hands or establishing two on one grip, he was able to stay upright.   

Although he fixed up a lot of his holes, some of Poirier’s bad habits are still present for Khabib to take advantage of. Despite having a disciplined jab and commitment to footwork, Poirier will still rush in from time to time, shifting his weight and momentarily crossing his feet. This got him caught against Alvarez and Holloway, with the latter dropping him briefly in the first round. If he elects to brawl and remain in one place, he can still get caught by clean combination striking or be vulnerable to a takedown. Gaethje would feint and start throwing hooks to stationary Poirier, and he landed some serious blows when he connected. This is something that Khabib can copy, and he’s got the clinch/grappling game to create problems after these striking exchanges. Also, Poirier’s commitment to the shoulder roll means that his midsection is exposed to jabs and straights to the body (which Holloway took advantage of) and Alvarez was able to land some clean uppercuts to Poirier’s midsection. Just as Poirier can take advantage of Khabib’s overextended hands, Khabib can take advantage of Poirier’s defensive flaws. Poirier’s top game is also great (as shown in the Pettis fight), but Pettis was able to reverse position multiple times when his back was taken and even hit a slick tripod sweep on Poirier. Granted that Pettis isn’t Khabib, it’ll be interesting to see what a mauler like Khabib is able to do if he’s given the same opportunities as Pettis on the ground.

Speaking of Khabib’s path to victory, it’s been quite a while since Poirier has fought someone who’s primarily a grappler. The last two real wrestlers that Poirier has fought were Justin Gaethje and Eddie Alvarez, and both are known more for their striking than their grappling. When Alvarez did shoot in for takedowns, he was able to get one on Poirier later in the fight when Poirier was getting lax with his defense. Hell, even Pettis was able to land a takedown against Poirier. The thing about Khabib’s takedowns are that they’re not blast doubles or lightning quick singles, they are the grinding type that are constant. A closer look at the stats show that Khabib has a 44% takedown rate, but once he gets you down, very rarely do opponents find their way back up. Against Alvarez, Poirier defended most of the takedowns by getting underhooks and spreading his base to keep Alvarez from closing his hands together. If Alvarez was already deep in on his attempt, Poirier would go for a guillotine/ten finger guillotine which got Alvarez to let go. Against a grinder like Khabib who shoots in with his head outside, this might not be a gamble that probably won’t pay off. Once he’s on top and able to establish a dominant position, Khabib should focus on hammering Poirier to the body since it can lead to fatigue as the rounds wear on. It’s something he’ll have to keep in mind especially if the fight goes the distance and the judges are looking to see who’s more tired. Poirier’s game plan is going to be movement heavy, so it makes all the sense in the world for Khabib to try and slow this down as much as possible. No matter who comes out the victor in the matchup, there is absolutely no question who should be next in line: Tony Ferguson. A match up between Poirier and Ferguson or Khabib and Ferguson before the end of the year would be the perfect Christmas gift. But first, let’s see how this shakes out.