Paul's Preview: Cerrone vs. Gaethje (Patreon)

The UFC heads up north to Vancouver for Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Gaethje, where the winner is guaranteed nothing, but it makes for a very exciting main event. Come on, the UFC recently announced a BMF belt for the Masvidal vs. Diaz winner, but one can make a very compelling argument that these two gentlemen are worthy contenders for that title as well. The book has been written on both Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone and Justin Gaethje for quite some time, but they do dig into their bag of tricks occasionally to surprise us. Gaethje is riding a modest 2 fight win streak and is finally over the .500 mark in his UFC career. Meanwhile, Cerrone is coming off a loss against Tony Ferguson in a fight where he was looking progressively worse as the rounds wore on. It’s very likely that if Gaethje is able to secure a win over Cowboy, he can be placed on a short list for the next shot at the title (especially if its last minute), but if Cerrone pulls off a win, he jumps right back into contention and can ask for someone in the top 5. Let’s revisit the styles, tactics, and weaknesses of these two individuals and see how they stack up.

Cowboy has been in the UFC since 2010, racking up an impressive 22 wins in the promotion alone. After the Gaethje fight, he will have competed in 50 MMA fights total, not counting his Muay Thai and boxing records. That is an incredible feat no matter which way you slice it, and Cerrone has truly seen it all. A 6’1” lightweight with a 73” reach, Cowboy has fought the best at lightweight and welterweight in the past 12 years. He hasn’t always come out victorious, but for the most part he’s handled himself pretty well and has won more than he has lost. At his best, Cerrone is one of MMA’s first all around complete fighter that can hurt you at all ranges. He can lob low kicks mixed in with punches to the head and body, all while shooting in offensive takedowns of his own to pull off a slick submission. He is version 2.0 of the complete MMA fighter, meaning he can analyze and break down your style’s strengths and weaknesses in real time during the fight… but he’s going to need a minute or two to process before implementation. Version 3.0 is where you can adjust for all those things, but in seconds and mid-combination (Cerrone isn’t quite there yet, unfortunately). Cowboy is still dangerous at range, where he can pick you apart with low/body/high kicks if you recklessly drive in without a solid game plan. His recent work of focusing on hitting the opponents in the midsection has paid off since even the most durable of fighters are seen panting and wheezing in the middle of round 2, where Cerrone can now tee off with impunity. Even if he gets surprised and taken down, his long legs and defensive wrestling helps him scramble back up or try for slick triangles and armbar attempts to dissuade you from further attacks.

As stated previously, Cerrone’s fights against both Alex Hernandez and Al Iaquinta show you that given enough time, he can adjust and beat you with experience. Once Cowboy took Hernandez down, he used the break to analyze Hernandez’s striking while scoring points on the ground. Cerrone does a good job of adjusting to his opponent’s game plans, but he needs some time to process and break it down. At lightweight, explosive forward pressure is what gives Cerrone problems, and it’s what Gaethje is all about (more on him later). The reach of Cerrone isn’t the longest at lightweight, but his snapping jab combined with low kicks are a problem for anyone at 155. Working with Brandon Gibson, his striking and composure has gotten a lot sharper, and it’s noticeable. There were a few times in the Iaquinta fight when Donald would come forward and throw combination punches, but he made sure to pivot out immediately instead of sticking around and getting into exchanges. This is going to come in handy against someone as relentless as Gaethje, since a longer, more drawn out fight can give Cowboy more things to worry about and try to analyze, possibly overdoing it. What might give Cerrone issues is his notorious slow start, although he hasn’t had that issue as much in recent times. Gaethje is usually aggressive from the get-go and will not hesitate to throw the first and last punch. Cerrone is still durable and able to survive most sluggish starts, and once he finds his rhythm, he’s hard to slow down. Cowboy piles on low kicks to make movement difficult for you, a game plan he has in common with Gaethje. He can also mix in straight punches to the eye to shut down your visibility and keep you from lunging at him. If you do shoot in for a takedown, Cerrone loves throwing that intercepting knee to the midsection to take the wind out of your sails and keep you from getting too close. Everyone thinks they’re tough until they’re hobbling and can’t see straight, then mostly they’re looking for a way out. Not so for Justin Gaethje.

Gaethje now has 5 fights in the UFC and has racked up a performance or fight the night bonus in every single one. He has either won in devastating fashion or gone out on his shield, and he lives up to his nickname, The Highlight. Justin Gaethje, Cody Garbrandt, and Aaron Pico all reside on the same spectrum of fighters who have great wrestling but elect not to use it, sometimes to their extreme detriment. Although he used to use takedowns in WSOF, he hasn’t used them lately in his quest to become the most exciting LW in the UFC. Gaethje fights out of the orthodox stance, and at 5’11” with a 71” reach, he’s not going to be using Jon Jones’s game plan anytime soon.  Much like Nate Diaz against Conor McGregor, Gaethje opts to keep his hands high and get in close, pressuring you to back up and throw strikes at his forehead and forearms. This is similar to the typical swarmers that you see in boxing, such as GGG, Julio Cesar Chavez, Joe Frazier, and Marcos Maidana. Unlike most of the boxers just mentioned, Gaethje will rely exclusively on his iron head to hold up so he can get in close to swing in with hooks, uppercuts, and low kicks, usually thrown as a counter when the opponents are off balance from punching him. This style might be due to his short reach and poor eyesight, but it’s made for some exciting fights. Once he’s able to get close enough to you, he will initiate a clinch battle where he can hammer you with strikes and push you against the fence where you have no escape. He did this against Michael Johnson where he would force him to fight against his stiff arm and although he is at risk from getting low kicked himself, his pressure usually has opponents constantly backing up, and it’s hard to throw successful low kicks when you’re forced to move backwards.

Even though Gaethje has traditionally been non-stop action, his last fights against James Vick and Edson Barboza showed a different approach. Gaethje started very tentatively by feinting, moving in and out to pressure Vick, and threw body jabs to get Vick thinking about covering up his midsection. He showed some great feints against Poirier and Alvarez as well, but it was too few and far between, despite having success with them. He was having some trouble with Vick’s front kicks, but Gaethje was able to get him to constantly move and circle so he wouldn’t have time to set up those kicks. When he stayed out in the open, Gaethje ate a decent number of body kicks (another habit exploited by Barboza), but he doesn’t hang out back for long. Gaethje got into a leg kick battle with Barboza before crowding Barboza to the fence and unloading with punches and hooks to hurt him. This was also present in spurts in the Poirier fight, but against Barboza he really mixed in a lot of good punches and didn’t stay as predictable, even hanging back when he knew Barboza was still dangerous. He finished Barboza in typical Gaethje fashion, but it was over quicker than most have anticipated. Gaethje does a good job of using head movement in the first round to avoid as much damage as possible, but over time you see this fade and the Gaethje of WSOF re-emerges. Over time the leg kicks will kill your in and out movement, tire out your pivots, and essentially keep you in place so that Gaethje can swarm in and hurt you with punches.  So how are these two fighters going to approach this?

The game plans against both fighters have been written by many opponents before, and it seems silly to think if we’re going to see anything different out of both guys. If Gaethje would adopt a style similar to George Foreman/Daniel Cormier, he might have more success where he can check the hands and go for clinches. He’s less susceptible to taking strikes on a constant basis since opponents don’t want to risk getting in too close and getting into a clinch. If Cerrone could handle the forward pressure and become defensively better in the boxing range, he can deal some serious counter blows and be a nightmare matchup against anyone in the top 5. Tony Ferguson went kick for kick with Cerrone but tore him up with short hooks and elbows to the face, exposing a weakness that Nate Diaz exploited long ago.

When Iaquinta exploded to the pocket, he caught Cerrone by surprise and found a lot of success, but it was few and far between (and mostly limited to the second round). Don’t think for a second that Gaethje and his team didn’t notice this. Gaethje can exchange kicks with the best of them (as shown in the Barboza fight) and more than willing to eat a few shots to get in his own, not an ideal scenario for Cerrone. The fact that Gaethje has recently added in patience between rushes is good for him, and if he can throw in more feints to really draw out the kicks and strikes from Cerrone, all the better. For Gaethje, this fight is tailor made for him to pressure Cerrone and finish him in the later rounds, with the closest comparison being how Jorge Masvidal moved forward while checking kicks, feinting punches, catching body kicks and coming forward with hooks to finish Cerrone.

For Cerrone to win, the low line, teep, and front kicks would do wonders, the latter being used by James Vick against Gaethje before he got absolutely clobbered. Going low kick for low kick isn’t the best idea against Gaethje, but if Cerrone can withdraw his lead leg and counter with straight punches, it can damage Gaethje more than usual since he’ll be one leg. Whenever Gaethje throws his leg kicks as counters, they do wonders. When he throws them with little setup, he eats punches and gets put on wobbly legs. In fact, the most damaging blows against him are when he’s on one foot after he’s thrown the kicks. This was also a problem against both Michael Johnson and Poirier as well. Gaethje has a decent chin (despite all the wear and tear), but fatigue makes cowards of us all. Alvarez and Poirier took advantage of this by going high-low with punches to the head, body, and then head again to constantly keep Gaethje working. If Cerrone can focus on hammering Gaethje’s midsection with front kicks and hooks to the body, he can slow down the pace and force Gaethje into making sloppy mistakes. Cerrone’s offensive wrestling isn’t bad, and we rarely see anyone shooting in on Gaethje. It might make for a surprising move and can be attempted whenever Cerrone needs to gather his thoughts and formulate some next steps. It’s going to be interesting to see whether Cerrone’s old habits will cause him to lose again, or if Gaethje will continue his climb up the UFC lightweight rankings.