Beware of El Cucuy (Patreon)

By Paul

After beating Dustin Poirier, Khabib Nurmagomedov cemented himself as the undisputed UFC lightweight champion. A perfect 28-0, he has never tasted defeated, let alone a split decision. He rattled off an impressive 9 fight win streak in the UFC before finally getting a shot at the vacant title against Al Iaquinta. His first defense came against Conor McGregor in a fight that was so one-sided that the Irishman hasn’t been seen in action since. He followed that performance up by thrashing a much-improved Poirier, stifling his striking before submitting him in the third round. Justin Gaethje recently finished Donald Cerrone in under a round and wants a shot at the title. McGregor recently expressed interest in coming back to fighting, and both Kevin Lee and Tyron Woodley have stated that they want to challenge Nurmagomedov (the former wanting to move back down to lightweight, and the latter proposing a catchweight). However, there is one name above all that should get next shot at Nurmagomedov: Tony Ferguson.

Simply put, no one else has the resume that Ferguson has at lightweight. The last time Ferguson tasted defeat was in 2012 against Michael Johnson, a fight in which his arm got broken in round 2. Afterwards, he went on a 12-fight win streak, with 8 of those resulting in fight of the night or performance of the night bonuses. You might be asking why Ferguson and Nurmagomedov haven’t faced off yet, and the answer is a bit more complicated. Ferguson and Nurmagomedov have been slated to face each other on five separate occasions and every single time, a cancellation has occurred. Whether it was due to a last-minute injury or a bad weight cut, the two have not faced off against each other in the cage. It’s come to the point that many feel that the fight itself is cursed and will never be made, but that would be absolutely tragic. Jimmy Smith (former Bellator and UFC commentator) described it best: “Khabib is the bull in the china shop, but Tony is the snake in the grass.” The things that Nurmagomedov does best present interesting challenges for Ferguson, but the same can be said for the other. Sam Yang did a great job breaking down the strengths of Nurmagomedov in our Fight Study episode for UFC 242 (if you haven’t listened to it, shame on you), so I won’t rehash those points. Instead, I want to focus on the things that make Ferguson such a unique challenge for Nurmagomedov, as well as what we should be looking out for in a potential fight between them.

Ferguson is a threat in all ranges of combat, and he has sharpened up a few of his tools with such precision that he’s almost always one or two steps away from finishing the fight at any given time. Compounding this problem for many opponents is the sheer size of Ferguson. Standing at 5’11” with a 76” reach, many fighters have difficulty breaking through the jabs and straights from Ferguson, and it doesn’t help that his constant pressure and stance switching have them reacting more than attacking. With Kevin Lee now moving up to welterweight (for the moment at least), Ferguson has the longest reach in the 155-pound weight class, and he knows how to use it. No matter what anyone says, size is important (especially when skills are equal). Max Holloway is one of the best fighters on the planet, and at featherweight he looks untouchable. When he moved up to lightweight to fight Dustin Poirier in a rematch, he found that his usual volume striking wasn’t as effective against a more filled-out Poirier, and he lacked the power to truly hurt him.  Despite (or because) of Ferguson’s unique fighting style and rhythm, many of his opponents have found it difficult to time their own attacks and implement their game plans. It’s not just the fact that Ferguson pumps out the jab frequently and feints well, it’s also that his pacing, head movement, and footwork are overwhelming.

At first glance, Ferguson looks all over the place with no real sense of direction. He moves his head erratically, leads with uppercuts, throws kicks without setup, and eats a shot or two for having his opposite hand hanging low. This usually leads to him requiring a feeling out process that lasts around 4-5 minutes, but after he’s done calibrating his attacks are ready to break you down.

One would be remiss to talk about Ferguson and not mention his excellent use of stance switching and kicking versatility. There are some fighters that can make stance switching look effortless and smooth, like TJ Dillashaw and Max Holloway, but Ferguson is not one of them. In fact, Ferguson commits a lot of technical mistakes by sometimes lunging past his opponents or pressuring without the fleet footed movements necessary to corner them. Don’t even get me started on his terrible habit of sticking his chin out in the open when he throws hooks and uppercuts. What eventually saves him is his endless cardio and ability to constantly stay on the attack with variety. Even the most defensive savvy striker or powerhouse wrestler will have their reaction time slowed down as the fight goes on, but Ferguson somehow finds a way to build up his pace as the minutes go by. The more you try to defend and counter, the more Ferguson will utilize his bag of unorthodox moves that you probably haven’t trained for (or at least not in that sequence). It’s not uncommon to see Ferguson mix in jabs, hooks, upward elbows followed by snapping down his opponents’ neck to go for a D’arce choke. Ferguson’s ability to throw surprisingly accurate jabs and straights from both the orthodox and southpaw stance gives his opponents fits since they can’t commit to one side to slip out to and counter. Adding to the pressure, Ferguson’s not afraid to throw a barrage of kicks at your legs and midsection, slowing down the bounce in your steps and draining your gas tank. His low kicks especially come in useful since it pins you in place while he starts slicing you up with elbows, which he will throw from any angle he possibly can.

Ferguson’s penchant for throwing front kicks is also evident in all his fights, but especially in the Rafael Dos Anjos and Kevin Lee match-ups. Despite knowing that his opponents would like nothing more than to grab and leg and take him down, Ferguson constantly threw the kicks, openly daring them to try and snatch a leg so he can hammer in some punches and scramble back up. By the time his opponents realize they’re fatiguing way faster than anticipated, Ferguson begins to get creative.

You can’t ever watch a Ferguson fight and expect the same performance, rinse and repeat. Ferguson is the kind of fighter that will go for an Imanari roll in the first 30 seconds of a fight just to see if it would be an effective takedown entry, which probably surprised the hell out of Edson Barboza. One of his go-to moves when in trouble is to literally roll around to give himself time and space to recover, while throwing jabs and hooks to maintain some distance. There is not a single MMA coach working today that would consider this a sound game plan, but Ferguson somehow manages to make it work. His unpredictability in these kinds of situations also makes him incredibly hard to plan against. If Deadpool ever became a UFC fighter, Ferguson would be a close approximation of what he would fight like. Against Pettis and Cerrone (his two most recent match-ups), Ferguson kept the fight standing and gave them no chance at setting up an effective counter game. The jabs came faster than expected and caused cuts and swelling in both Pettis and Cerrone, and Ferguson added to this problem by throwing elbows constantly to try and open them up even more. As mentioned earlier, the longer a fight drags on, the better the timing of Ferguson’s gets. Kevin Lee had a great first round against Ferguson, but once he started to accumulate damage to the body (courtesy of Ferguson’s front kicks and jabs), he faded quickly before getting submitted in the third round. Despite being taken down and fighting off his back, Ferguson didn’t resort to his high usage of granby rolls and sweeps to get up, he was comfortable in hunting for the submission. Lando Vannata also came dangerously close to finishing Ferguson in the first round, but constant pressure from Ferguson and his commitment to his D’arce choke cinched the fight for him.

Speaking of submissions, Ferguson’s frequent utilization of the D’arce choke makes him a danger on the feet as much as he is on the ground. The snap into a front headlock is often thought of as a transition move, something to keep your opponents in place while you throw some knees. In boxing, it’s common to see guys like Vasyl Lomachenko grab his opponents’ neck and force it down under his forearm while he shifts to the opponent’s non-dominant side, where he can throw some strikes without any worry of immediate retaliation. Ferguson will often instead use the snap down to attempt a D’arce choke and force his opponents to react, often getting even the most collected fighters to panic. Don’t forget that Josh Barnett is leaps and bounds better than Ben Rothwell when it comes to pure submission grappling, but Rothwell was still able to catch Barnett with a 10-finger guillotine choke and be the first (and so far, only) fighter to submit him. Whether Ferguson gets the submission or not, he’s setting the tempo and letting his opponents know that any time they crouch low, they are in danger of getting caught in this move. At it’s best, this can finish the opponent or create opportunities for Ferguson to take his opponent down and force them to turtle up. If the opponent does fight out of the snap down, they now must deal with uppercuts and hooks as they get up, usually eating a punch or two as a result. Hell, Ferguson will also throw in a spinning elbow or two to keep you guessing. Given his 10th Planet jiu jitsu lineage, Ferguson is no stranger to funky grappling moves and will not hesitate to go for sweeps and submissions if he feels you’re trying to stall. By constantly going for submissions, he is creating openings for scrambles and sweeps so he can either get back to his feet or reverse position and put you on all 4’s. Ferguson has faced off against a lot of different wrestlers and even though he’s been taken down several times, he has a solid 75% takedown defense stat. What’s impressive about that number is that if you count the times that Ferguson could have sprawled and defended the takedown instead of attempting a submission and scramble out, his takedown defense percentage would probably be in the high 90’s.

With all this being said, Ferguson isn’t without his faults. He’s hittable on the feet and has been dropped by guys like Kevin Lee, Anthony Pettis, and Lando Vannata. Ferguson can be taken down and held as long as you constantly improve position and keep him from locking onto your wrists. Given all the wars he’s been in, he’s prone to getting cut up himself and who knows how long before another injury occurs. His lack of ring awareness at times lets him give up positioning in the cage that he shouldn’t, especially if he moves straight into fence (where Nurmagomedov does his best work). Ferguson is also guilty of trying different moves and combinations mid-fight at the cost of racking up points and sticking to the overall fight strategy. So far, only one person has found a way to beat him in the UFC, so Ferguson must be doing something right. Nurmagomedov might very well still bulldoze over Ferguson and keep his perfect record intact, but the tools that Ferguson brings and all his intangibles provide such an interesting clash of styles that it would be a travesty if we never got to see these two match up. Hopefully the MMA gods are gracious and can grant us this fight soon (and without any hiccups).