Paul's Preview: Whittaker vs. Adesanya (Patreon)

A little over a year ago, Robert Whittaker hobbled his way out of the Octagon, absolutely battered and bruised at the hands (and feet) of Yoel Romero. Despite the controversial scoring of the fight, Whittaker walked away, still the champion of the middleweight division. Fast forward to October 2019, Whittaker finds himself on the brink of just his second title defense in the span of two years against interim champion, Israel Adesanya. It wasn’t supposed to be like this. Whittaker had steadily been fighting twice a year as a middleweight against a murderer’s row of contenders. Since winning the title in July 2017, Whittaker’s had two title defenses scrapped at the last minute due to medical conditions, taking away opportunities to cement himself as the next great middleweight champion. Instead, he has fought just one time, a rematch against Yoel Romero that left both men significantly worse for the wear. During Whittaker’s absence, Adesanya made quite the name for himself by staking himself as the next middleweight great. He rattled off 6 straight victories in the UFC, winning the interim championship belt in the process. Both fighters are undefeated as middleweights, and both have a legitimate claim to be the champion in the division. Luckily for us fans, we can see Whittaker and Adesanya square off and determine who is truly the best 185-pound fighter not just in Oceania, but in the world (sorry, Rafael Lovato Jr). Let’s do a deeper dive into the styles of these two, starting with the champion.

Despite his recent inactivity, it’s important to note how amazing Whittaker’s rise in the middleweight division has been. After going 2-2 as a welterweight, Whittaker decided to stop draining himself down to 170 pounds and has looked like a new man. At 6’ with a 73.5” reach, Whittaker doesn’t stand out size-wise, especially when you compare him to some of the other giants in the division. What Whittaker does have is an impeccable fight IQ matched with the skillset to execute. Normally an orthodox striker, Whittaker isn’t a stranger to the southpaw stance and will frequently switch in order to get the best angle for his attacks. Despite appearing vulnerable to lead jabs, Whittaker keeps his hands low on purpose to bait attacks from his opponents. If they attempt to punch or kick his head, he can shoulder roll out and come back with hooks and straights. If they shoot in on a takedown, his hands are already low and ready to defend. This comes in handy when facing off against well-regarded grapplers like Jacare Souza and Romero, with Whittaker defending 21 of 28 takedown attempts against Romero alone in their first fight. This low lead hand approach mixed in with forward pressure forces wrestlers to take shots that they normally wouldn’t, gassing them out and giving Whittaker opportunities to land power strikes mixed in with his usual jabs and sidekicks. This was on full display against Souza, who was visibly winded after the first round and got picked apart while standing. You might be asking, “If his hands are low, wouldn’t it still be vulnerable to blitz attacks? How is Whittaker able to keep guys from rushing in?” The answer: feinting.

Adesanya and Whittaker both have the uncanny ability of feinting extremely well, but they go about it in different ways. For Whittaker, his jabs come in at different intervals, speed, and level changes. Even though it’s just one type of strike, it’s enough to confuse even the best of fighters and throw them off their game. When Whittaker pumps his shoulder and steps forward, opponents are ready to counter. However, Whittaker will often take a half step/stutter step or extend his arms mid-way before retreating. The motions are repeated and mixed in with real jabs and the occasional left hook. He also doesn’t mind going low and peppering their midsections with body punches, and when their hands go low to protect, Whittaker will go back upstairs to their heads. When the opponents is convinced that the strike isn’t real and fail to react properly, Whittaker will pounce in with an attack and catch them off guard. It’s also interesting to note that Whittaker keeps his head slightly off to his left, dipped a bit lower than usual. This has his opponents convinced that a high kick is coming. By adding in front kicks, low line kicks, body kicks, hooks, and side kicks from this position, his opponents are befuddled and left scrambling to come up with a retreat or block the strikes. Rafael Natal, Brad Tavares, Souza, and Romero all fell for this trap time and time again. Such is the power of feinting and having multiple attacks at your disposal. In terms of fighters most like Adesanya that Whittaker has fought, Uriah Hall somewhat fits the bill. A striker that favors a slower pace and can throw a dynamic kick at a moment’s notice, Hall is notably hit or miss as a fighter. Against Whittaker, he served as little more than a heavy bag and was given an absolute clinic. Whittaker mixed in plenty of low and front kicks that had Hall reaching down to stop the attacks, giving Whittaker the perfect opportunities to turn up the volume with his jabs and straights. Not all of Whittaker’s attacks land cleanly, but they don’t have to. He is prone to brawling at times but has the durability to outlast his opponents. Whittaker is just consistently out-working you and forcing you to make decisions on the fly while he hangs back and calculates where you’re at your most vulnerable.            

Against Adesanya, volume and pressure are going to be key. We saw in Whittaker’s last two fights that he can keep the pressure constant while mixing in feints with his attacks. Early on, a low-line side kick from Romero absolutely destroyed Whittaker’s lead leg and forced him to change game plans entirely. Whittaker continued moving forward, but now relied on his right front kick, often leading with it, countering with it, and just throwing it anytime Romero got too close. It might have been a dangerous strategy against such a decorated wrestler, but it did a great job of keeping Romero at a distance and allowed Whittaker the chance to land his patented left hook repeatedly. Mixing in high kicks and jabs, Romero was constantly forced backwards and attempted takedowns from too far out. Speaking of which, Whittaker’s takedown defense was on point and managed to stop 75% of them. It’s unlikely that Adesanya will be looking to shoot in on a double leg, but those numbers are impressive. Whittaker made sure to make it to the fence and wall walk up while making sure Romero couldn’t get in any under hooks, denying him any extended time on the mats.

Gastelum also had success against Adesanya despite being possible the smallest middleweight in the UFC roster. Despite having an 8” reach disadvantage, Gastelum was able to use angles to get inside of Adesanya and soften him up with jabs and hooks to the body. His darting side to side movement and forward pressure was able to offset the reach disadvantage and give Adesanya some serious problems, even wobbling and dropping him. Adesanya looks great on the offensive but doesn’t look nearly as scary when he’s forced backwards. He needs a lot of space to operate effectively and if you’re able to deny him the real estate, he becomes a lot more hittable. When it comes to takedowns, Whittaker hasn’t really displayed his full arsenal (despite being on the Australian national wrestling team). Against Hall, Whittaker was focused on position and scoring damage while on the ground, and he did a great job of using pressure to force Hall to give up side control while making sure that his own limbs were never compromised. Gastelum was able to score a clean takedown against Adesanya after he whiffed on a right straight and was able to get deep in on his hips. Gastelum was also not afraid to kick with Adesanya, scoring plenty of his own low kicks and even landing a high kick of his own. When he made it a brawl, Adesanya looked mortal and vulnerable. Whittaker can make a similar game plan built around the holes that Gastelum exposed, and he has all the tools to do so. However, this is Adesanya we’re talking about.

The UFC is no stranger to having great kickboxers in their promotion. Before Adesanya made his debut, Alistair Overeem, Mark Hunt, and Gohkan Saki all made their way to the Octagon. Unlike all those, Adesanya is the only one to have won a title, interim or not. After five impressive victories (including one over an aging but dangerous Anderson Silva), Adesanya was given an interim title shot against Gastelum when Whittaker was going through his second emergency medical procedure. One brutal championship match later, Adesanya emerged as the victor and the rightful next match for Whittaker. Standing at a gangly 6’4” with an 80” reach, he towers over most middleweights and is often looking down at his opponents (literally and figuratively). Even though his MMA career has been sporadic and in mostly regional promotions, his kickboxing record is an incredible 75-5-1. Although he has had to make modifications to his striking, a good portion of his strategies and moves have stayed the same. Regardless of his dismissive attitude of Jon Jones’s skills, both fighters share a lot of similarities, particularly when it comes to framing. Since Adesanya has such an absurd reach, it would be foolish of him to not take advantage of such physical gifts.  Much like Jones, he also uses his length and leverage to thrust his forearms on the opponents’ shoulders or neck to keep them from advancing. For all his bravado, it’s actual straight punches that do the most damage for Adesanya. With the longest reach in the division, it’s no surprise why he’ll want to keep you at range. When he caught Gastelum and Brunson, it was straight punches, not hooks. It’s important to note that he’s not just framing and standing in place, Adesanya will slip out on the opposite side and back to the center of the cage. Miocic was able to stop a lot of Daniel Cormier’s advances in their fights but got caught clean by the uppercuts and hooks because he failed to slip out.  When he’s slipped out and back in the middle of the octagon, Adesanya will also start utilizing his feints.

As briefly touched upon during Whittaker’s portion, Adesanya also uses feints quite effectively, but takes a different approach. For every single actual strike, Adesanya will feint 5-6 times, with shoulder and hip feints being his favorites to utilize. Shoulder feints are commonplace in all striking sports, and they’re used quite effectively by many of the top MMA fighters right now, including other middleweights like Whittaker and Gastelum. Adesanya’s feints come in at a more rapid rather than stuttering pace, like Max Holloway or Alexander Volkanovski. In a nutshell, all you’re doing is faking movements with your shoulder and sliding forward with your feet to dull your opponents’ senses. By adding in hip feints to remind them of the threats to their lower extremities, Adesanya can put you on edge from the get-go without actually using up his gas tank. The threat of kicks alone are often enough to get people thinking twice of rushing in, Jose Aldo scared many of his challengers during his WEC days just by lifting his legs slightly above ground for a few seconds. Vitor Belfort was the first fighter in the UFC to really take advantage of feinting into strikes, but he also had blistering hand speed and knockout power. When he does actually throw kicks (usually round or low kicks), Adesanya will momentarily go southpaw afterwards to set up a pivot to the outside, a Vasyl Lomachenko favorite. This gives him dominant position to follow up with punches or frame off you if he feels a takedown coming. This also helps him land his flashier kicks, like the question mark kick. These kinds of strikes come after the opponent is already tired and not sensing any future attacks due to a fried central nervous system that’s unable to process so much information all at once. Adesanya does his best work when opponents fall for his feints and start their counterstriking, which leaves them vulnerable to Adesanya’s originally planned attacks. Because he doesn’t have that one-shot power that knocks people out cold, Adesanya relies on catching you when you’re off balance and not expecting to get hit.

The blueprint for an Adesanya victory is going to similar to what he did against Gastelum: keep him at range and guessing which attacks will be thrown. When Adesanya was kicking Gastelum in the body and legs, he was making sure that a longer fight would work in his favor. Mixing in jabs to his face and midsection also worked wonders and kept Gastelum from advancing too often, and there were more than just a few times when he got too lax and ate straight right hands after absorbing some kicks to the body. Romero also had success against Whittaker in the third round of their second fight when Whittaker missed on a left front kick and ate a right straight, dropping him and forcing him to dig deep the rest of the time frame. Whittaker also nearly got finished in the last round of that fight when he came up too soon after a wild left hook from Romero, only to eat the same left hook again and damn near get decapitated. Whittaker isn’t perfect and can be hit after executing his moves, and Adesanya has the sharpshooting skills to put him in danger if he stays in place too long.

He’s also well aware of Whittaker’s signature weapon, his left hook. Adesanya has talked about it openly, here’s his direct quote from his interview with Submission Radio: “He’s good with the left hook, and that’s one thing, no one’s ever… ah fuck it, no one ever makes him check the left hook. No one ever makes him check. I’ll give him the blueprint and I’ll still whoop his ass. No one ever makes him respect the left hook like that. No one ever makes him hesitate with the left hook. Fucking hell.” It’s possible that Adesanya and his coaches are planning on baiting him from a southpaw stance, having him throw his left hook and overextend so Adesanya can pull back on an angle, at which point he can score with his own hooks and straights. It also wouldn’t be a surprise to see Adesanya attempt to slap on a clinch after any failed striking attempts from Whittaker and make him pay for it with elbows and knees. The beauty of this fight is that both fighters are so good at feinting but utilize different methods. Whoever emerges victorious will not just be the middleweight champion but can make a strong claim as the best MMA striker in the world. That is until Max Holloway fights again.