Paul's Preview: Weidman vs. Reyes (Patreon)

• Related episode: Is the UFC Killing Fighters like Chris Weidman? 

“I was winning until I lost” is a saying that athletes will utter to inject some humor in an interview, usually right after the match is over. We often all get a chuckle out of this, and there are usually shades of truth in those words. No one exemplifies this statement more than Chris Weidman. He is 1-4 in his past five fights, a far cry from the dominant champ that crushed Anderson Silva back to back and looked poised to replicate Silva’s long line of title defenses. Fast forward to 2019 and Weidman has decided to stop draining himself down to middleweight and will try his hand at the less populated light heavyweight division. Constant injuries have kept him from gaining momentum in the division, and his body might have finally decided that it can no longer perform at an elite level while diminishing itself. Weidman has been talked about before on Southpaw, he actually has an entire episode dedicated to him. Granted, it was one where we spoke at length about his misfortunes, but Sam and I dug deep into his career and tried to see if he was truly as good as advertised or if decades of damage have destroyed his body. Hoping to jump start his recent skid, Weidman will take on the surging Dominick Reyes, widely considered to be a future challenger for Jon Jones (or at least a perennial contender). Reyes has looked impressive thus far in the UFC, and its important to note that he’s only 5 fights and already headlining a card. Can Weidman get a fresh start at 205, or will Reyes continue his unbeaten streak right to a title shot against Jon Jones? Let’s break down this action, starting with the former middleweight champ.

Weidman debuted in 2011 in the UFC, but Matt Serra has been saying since 2010 that Weidman is the future champ of the middleweight division. Weidman took on André Galvão at ADCC in 2009 with only a year of formal training (competing as a blue belt, no less). His wrestling base allowed him to aggressively pursue submissions and threw Galvão around, despite losing a decision. This was an early sign of the promise that young Weidman showed, and 2 years later he was under the bright lights of the octagon.  After winning 5 fights straight in the UFC, Weidman was given a shot against Silva, and his coaches (Serra and Ray Longo) got to work by putting together a solid game plan. The team noticed Silva rolls with punches and pulls away from strikes as his main defense, which isn’t uncommon among strikers. Silva does this to get opportunities when his opponents overreact or bite down on what they think are opportunities (the mark of an excellent counter striker), only to get hit with a jab or kick. However, this leaves him prone to double and triple jabs, as well as any follow up strikes and feints. Being a counter striker, Silva doesn’t do this best work on the lead, and it’s been exploited by others in the past. Patrick Cote was the first to make Silva look human, forcing him to move forward on offense and show that his striking arsenal is limited when he’s leading. Others like Travis Lutter, Dan Henderson, and Chael Sonnen all showed that Silva can be taken down and held down for decent stretches during the fight, but Silva’s ability to defend positions and go for sneaky submissions while off his back should be accounted for. With all that in mind, Weidman got down to the business of shocking the world (twice). The 6’2” Weidman used his wrestling to keep Silva guessing by dipping low constantly (mixing in attempts with real ones) and utilized disciplined ring craft to never give ground. His constant feints and lack of willingness to lunge in frustrated Silva to the point where he resorted to taunting Weidman, his go-to move to try and lure out aggression. The only bright spots that Silva showed were the low kicks that he hammered Weidman with, but that was fixed in the rematch. Weidman kept resetting his position every time and never gave Silva a chance to create the space that he needs to work with. A disciplined jab and right straight was the difference in their offensive tools, since both Weidman and Silva have a 78” reach. The second fight was identical to the first, except for Weidman checking leg kicks. One of those checks broke Silva’s shin, ending the fight on a TKO. Things were off to a great start.

After defeating Silva for the second time (his first title defense) Weidman was matched up with Lyoto Machida, another excellent counter striker. Weidman took advantage of Machida’s need for creating space for his counters (stemming from his karate background). Weidman did an excellent job of cutting off the ring and forcing Machida into his power strikes, and his feints always make counter strikers wary. Weidman kept the pressure on Machida for most of the fight and made sure his foot was always on the outside of Machida. Kicking against Weidman was dangerous for Machida because it could lead to attempted takedowns, so Chris was able to kick far more liberally, even feinting kicks to step in closer. When Weidman actually started going for serious takedowns in round 3, Machida was worn down and his sense of timing was off. Machida came back in the 4th and 5th to try and rally, but clever hand fighting from Weidman made sure he wasn’t out of the fight and it seriously hampered Machida’s ability to generate meaningful offense. The disciplined footwork of Weidman is his foundation, and when he starts to get sloppy in this aspect, it’s usually around the time that he starts to lose the fight. Anyways, Weidman beat Machida and continued his tour of beating up Brazilian fighters, taking on the legendary Vitor Belfort. Defending his belt for the third time and against another Brazilian, Weidman showed he can withstand early blitzes and still find a way to win. It didn’t display his entire skill set, but Belfort is still a dangerous fighter that had beaten 3 guys straight (all finishes) for the title shot. Despite a horrible start where Weidman charged Belfort, guns blazing and almost got finished, he soon regained his composure and started jabbing again. Once Belfort tired after his initial flurry, Weidman was able to implement a superior grappling plan. Soon, a takedown and mount sealed the deal where Chris finished with strikes on the ground. Weidman looked unstoppable, and if he could beat the other young American in the division (Luke Rockhold), he could cement himself as one of the greatest middleweights ever. This was not to be.

Weidman was slated to face Rockhold, by far the most complete opponent he has faced so far. Weidman dominated the first round with excellent grappling and feinting on the feet. He seemed to tire in the second round and when he threw an ill-advised spinning kick (where was that disciplined footwork?), it was the beginning of the end. Weidman might not actually be a better fighter than Weidman, it’s just as likely that he just has better cardio and was able to last longer. This started the trend of Weidman starting strong and fading quickly after. The second round saw Weidman starting to tire and Rockhold utilizing his reach and check hook to hurt Weidman (same as Machida had in their fight). After some vicious ground and pound in the 3rd round that Weidman somehow survived, it wasn’t a guarantee that he could survive a 4th. Sure enough, he was finished.

Suffering his first career loss, Weidman drew Yoel Romero on the first UFC New York card, and in the first round, Weidman looked sublime. His single leg forced down Romero, making him get on all 4’s and relied on defensive wrestling to stay upright. This gave Weidman time to pound Romero on the feet by throwing feints and hard jabs whenever Romero wasn’t active. Romero also waits and waits before exploding on his opponents, which is a problem that Weidman saw in Belfort, only much more dangerous since Romero has the wrestling threat. Cardio issues crept up again for Weidman, and as the old saying goes, fatigue makes cowards of us all. Weidman and was thrown off by Romero’s simple retreats in a straight line, despite being able to handle competitive counter strikers in Silva and Machida. A flying knee in the third when Chris went for a long shot takedown ended the fight, but it was clear that Weidman was fading. Weidman tried to get back in the win column against Gegard Mousasi, and again he looked great in the beginning. His constant feints while Mousasi went for his counter right was giving Mousasi problems, especially mixed in with his high crotch single leg. Mousasi was forced into grappling exchanges and he did well in scrambles and got back up to his feet, but Weidman has a great passing game and mounted Mousasi a few times. When he couldn’t do any serious damage and got tired from the repeated takedowns, Weidman’s striking looked terrible. Maybe it’s because Mousasi is the first opponent of Weidman’s in a while that is orthodox, but it doesn’t explain why he threw panicked shots and was reckless with his right straights, despite throwing smart double rights in the past and never being off balance. This cost Weidman in round 2 when he got hit off balance and shot in for a lazy takedown. The confusion in rules saw Mousasi knee Weidman with a legal move, but one where Weidman thought was illegal. However, it was clear that he was winding down while Mousasi was gaining steam. Weidman’s patience and pressure were disappearing.

In a do or die moment, Weidman finally scored a victory over a then-surging Kelvin Gastelum. Weidman used superior grappling and submissions until he took down Gastelum and got an arm triangle in the third round. Despite a left straight that dropped him in the first round, it was a great performance by Weidman, and he didn’t panic in the third round when Gastelum started turning up the heat. It’s interesting that Weidman didn’t gas out during this fight, possibly due to Gastelum being small for the division so not that much energy was exerted in keeping him down. After a long layoff due to a thumb injury, Weidman returned against Jacare Souza for a possible shot at the title for the winner of this match. The fight was going Weidman’s way, until he lost. Somewhere along the line, Weidman lost his gas tank and can’t keep a consistent pace. Weidman was known for his disciplined striking, good ring craft, and excellent wrestling. After the 7-8 minute mark, he tires out quickly. Souza was able to make it a slugfest and kept attacking Weidman with hooks to the body and head, causing him to constantly switch between defending his head or his midsection. This greatly limited his mobility and couldn’t move as well as the fight wore on. Despite suffering a busted nose, Souza kept pressuring Weidman until he finished him in the third round. So much for a title shot. Weidman might be able to reinvent himself at light heavyweight, but his time in MMA might be limited overall. His tendency to over-train, damage taken to the head, years of weight cuts, and just general wear and tear might be too much. Weidman always has great strategies and game plans against opponents. He knows how to prepare specifically against certain fighters, but he can’t keep the pace going. This differs from Rockhold, who always has the same technical flaws (leaving his hands down after the left hook) that causes him to get clipped. It’s possible that this won’t be an issue at 205, but he’s going up against a killer.     

Reyes has so far looked great in the division, and even though he’s coming off a hotly contested split decision win over Volkan Oezdemir, his momentum is still strong. Prior to the fight with Oezdemir, he put on a clinic against Ovince Saint Preux (OSP) and sent Jared Cannonier down to the middleweight division. The 6’4” Reyes doesn’t have a traditional fighting background, his roots are actually in football. After a pro career failed to materialize, Reyes tried his hands at professional fighting and has found the athletic success he couldn’t on the gridiron. Although his 77” reach isn’t astounding, his southpaw stance and disciplined footwork (paired with a lethal high kick and straight punch) draws a strong comparison to one of the most feared strikers in MMA history: Cro-Cop. This simple attack combination wasn’t invited by Cro-Cop, but he did show how effective it could be. Opponents are constantly playing a game of roulette by trying to decide if they have to defend against a high kick or a straight punch. The defenses to either are completely different, and if a wrong choice is made, it can change the course of the bout entirely. Just to fuck with the opponent, a body kick is thrown every now and then to remind them that the threat is there. Reyes also incorporates leg kicks from time to time, adding another defensive wrinkle that opponents must worry about. You might be wondering, “Why doesn’t every southpaw just do this? If it’s as scary as you say it is, it should be almost impossible to defend!” You’re absolutely correct, astute and good-looking reader. The reason that Reyes is able to get away with this is the same as Cro-Cop: they are really fast and show no tell. Other southpaws have attempted this in the past, but often aren’t quick enough to fool their opponents on their true intentions, or have used it too frequently and show predictable patterns. By throwing both the kick and the punches from the same side with the same hip/shoulder movement, opponents can’t tell what strike is coming. Add in some feints and a decent jab and you got yourself a dangerous striker. The first win of Reyes’ UFC career came when he faked a kick and threw a left straight down the center, dropping Joachim Christensen and stopping the fight. After two more first round finishes, Reyes got matched up against OSP, a seasoned veteran who was coming off a win against Tyson Pedro. Reyes never looked smoother.

Reyes’ athleticism and footwork allowed him to frustrate OSP and have him constantly shoot early and miss. Even though Reyes does not have a wrestling background, his quickness and commitment to staying at range kept him out of danger. The difference in footwork between the two were night and day. OSP had two left feet and constantly had a hard time moving fluidly, but Reyes stayed focused and made sure that his outside foot was always out of OSP’s foot, helping him punch OSP with his full range of motion and torque in his punches. His footwork allowed him to always be able to fire back and be prepared to defend the takedowns (favorite tactics of Cody Garbrandt and Stipe Miocic). Reyes channeled his inner Bruce Lee and threw tons of intercepting strikes, hitting OSP the same time OSP would throw. Also compounding his issues, OSP didn’t have as much of a reach advantage when faced with a similarly sized Reyes. A win gave Reyes a ticket to face off against Oezdemir, who was ranked #6 at the time in the light heavyweight rankings.  It was a VERY close fight, with both fighters having a legitimate claim to victory. In round 2, Reyes landed just two more strikes than Oezdemir, but the type of strike wasn’t listed. Reyes had the quantity, but Oezdemir had the quality. It might have been too much too soon, but in a division that’s short on talent, what’s a matchmaker to do? With very few contenders to go around, how about pulling from someone in another weight class? It didn’t work as well for Rockhold, but hey, it might work a second time around! That’s how we got to this match up.

For Weidman to win, he’s going to have to be able to give Reyes some real threats to be wary of. Reyes has a very good left kick and left straight, but Oezdemir had an answer for both. Oezdemir would try and catch the kicks to an overhand or use it for a takedown, something Weidman has done well in the past. Reyes is very good when it comes to utilizing strikes from his left side, but his right sided strikes aren’t as great. When pressured, he doesn’t seem to react as well and prefers to be one on the lead. This is a bit alarming since fighters who don’t like getting pressured tend to have a very hard time fixing this problem in the long run. We saw how effective Weidman can be on the lead foot, using constant pressure against the likes of Silva, Romero, Souza, and Machida. Honestly, this isn’t even a question of skill or tactics. As covered extensively above in his career breakdown, Weidman doesn’t suffer from a lack of talent, it’s gas tank and damage issue. Has he truly broken down beyond repair? If he still tires at the 7-minute mark of a 5-round fight, it could spell trouble. Reyes is a good fighter and is talented enough to challenge for the belt. However, there is nothing in his skillset that should theoretically trouble Weidman. This fight will give us a lot more clarity into how much longer Weidman has in the fight game.

The key for a Reyes victory is simple enough: keep Weidman on the outside and piece him up with kicks and left straights. Although Weidman has a long history of beating southpaws, This will be the first time in a long time that he will be outsized. Reyes is taller and has comparable reach, and his speed is absolutely going to give the slower Weidman issues in the beginning. If Reyes can add a right hook and roundhouse kick to his arsenal, he could be the light heavyweight Conor McGregor. Even though Weidman is the better wrestler between the two, Reyes shouldn’t be afraid of throwing leg and body kicks to make sure that Weidman is aware of threats at all ranges. This will also give Reyes a chance to have Weidman overreact and shoot in early, similar to what OSP did. The earlier he can get Weidman shooting in and missing, the better. The left straight to the body can also work a treat, since Souza was able to show that hammering shots to the midsection will slow Weidman down, and eventually lead to an opening up top. Reyes shouldn’t try to engage Weidman in grappling exchanges, and he did a pretty solid job of stay disconnected through the entirety of the Oezdemir fight (which might have made it boring at times). This will serve him well against Weidman, a fighter who will be undoubtedly looking for any reason to get in close and attempt takedowns. No matter who wins on Saturday, fight fans get to see an interesting story develop: the final descent of Weidman’s career or the fight that solidifies Reyes as the next contender for Jon Jones.