Paul's Preview: Deontay Wilder vs Luis Ortiz II (Patreon)

During the late 70’s and early 80’s, boxing fans were treated to a great period of time when Roberto Duran, Marvin Hagler, Sugar Ray Leonard, and Tommy Hearns all fought each other to determine who was the best middleweight in the world. Aptly dubbed the “Four Kings” by author George Kimball, all four men engaged in a series of matches spanning close to decade, totaling 9 fights while delivering instant classics like Leonard vs Hagler, Duran vs Leonard, Hearns vs Hagler, and so on. This was also before pay-per-views became the norm for watching high profile fights, and when perfect records were an indication of inferior opponents who showed no real challenge. The heavyweight division of boxing never had such a competitive period, but we are getting closer to possibly witnessing an era where the best big men face off against each other during the peak of their athletic abilities (or at least before significant decline). Tyson Fury, Deontay Wilder, and Anthony Joshua were widely considered the holy trinity of heavyweight boxing, each holding a legitimate claim to being “the baddest man on the planet.” However, this pecking order was thrown for a loop in the past 18 months when opponents that were suppose to be cakewalks proved tougher than they originally appeared. Anthony Joshua was TKO’ed by Andy Ruiz Jr. in June of this year, causing him to lose the WBA (Super), IBF, WBO, and IBO heavyweight titles. Not only did the loss cost him the titles, it derailed talks of a fight between the winner of Wilder vs. Fury II. Speaking of both men, Fury also nearly lost his most recent fight against Otto Wallin when cuts suffered in the third and fifth seriously impaired his vision and a doctor’s stoppage looked imminent. Fury however survived long enough to get the fight to a decision and win on the judges’ scorecards. Although it looked like all things were set for a rematch between Wilder and Fury, Luis Ortiz made his case for a rematch with Wilder first by rattling off three straight wins and used his connections to a mutual advisor, Al Haymon, to get this fight scheduled in November.

Even though Wilder vs. Ortiz II doesn’t have the same star power as a rematch would Fury have, it is an exciting matchup and has all the ingredients for an amazing fight. Wilder is poised to make his tenth title defense of his WBC heavyweight belt, a title he hasn’t lost since winning it in 2015. A quick glance at his record suggests that he is nigh invincible, a closer look at his fights shows a fighter with flaws that can be taken advantage of. Wilder’s most recent knockout over Dominic Breazeale doesn’t really tell us much other than that he has devastating power. To really see some of the technical deficiencies in Wilder’s game, look no further than his matches with Fury, Gerald Washington, and Ortiz himself. The fight against Fury happened early December 2018, so it’s still fresh in the minds of many boxing fans. What we saw was a masterclass in boxing fundamentals and that even if you can’t knock out Wilder he can be beaten in convincing fashion. Fury is no doubt one of the best heavyweight boxers of all time, and his win over Wladimir Klitschko showed that you should never judge a book by its flabby cover. Even though he looks as unathletic as they come, Fury can keep a blistering pace for 12 rounds, all while bouncing around and jabbing you to death (taking full advantage of his 85” reach). Fury’s sporadic movements might seem like wasted energy, but there’s no denying that his upper body feints, dips, and pivots are enough for even the best trained boxers to have difficulty in landing clean hits. It was clear from the get-go that Wilder was having trouble striking against Fury, and he would overcommit his punches and end up swinging at a target that wasn’t there. Wilder’s defense was limited to a double forearm guard or moving his head straight back.

This flaw was picked up by Washington as well. Washington was a late replacement for Andrzej Wawrzyk and wasn’t given much of a chance. However, he did notice that Wilder would avoid his jab by jerking his head back and out of place, making him the perfect target for the follow up straight. By feinting often and doing the stutter jab, Washington was able to catch Wilder clean on some exchanges and genuinely give the champion some trouble whenever he leaned back and bit on the feints at the moment he saw Washington’s shoulder move.

Going back to Fury, he made excellent use of his jabs throughout their fight. His volume selection is always impressive, but the power and variance of Fury’s jab is what really sets him apart. Much like Nick Diaz, Fury can hit you with punches that range from soft to stiff and powerful. Sometimes they come at a pawing pace, other times it’s thrown with speed to hurt you. CompuBox statistics showed that Fury out-struck Wilder in 9 out of the 12 rounds. Wilder picked up boxing relatively late in his life so it’s not surprising to see him lack a lot of the finesse you see in his peers. However, what he lacks in technical skill, he more than makes up for in power.

Despite being troubled from time to time in his matches, and even flat out looking like he’s about to lose, Wilder is able to stay competitive in the fight due to the threat of his right hand alone. He didn’t get his nickname “The Bronze Bomber” by finishing fights with decision victories. It only takes one thunderous right hand to put your lights out, and all his opponents are in constant danger when facing off against him. Standing at 6’7” with an 83” reach, you realize that he’s not the biggest or the strongest among heavyweights, yet he’s able to finish so many of them. One of the reasons is due to the angle of his punches catching his opponents off guard. It comes at you so quickly after an awkwardly timed jab, and it’s arching motion isn’t the usual straight on punch that most fighters are used to defending. Most boxers are used to seeing their opponents in a certain stances and throwing from a certain range in order to maximize their power and distance. Even though Wilder’s footwork is atrocious and his hands are nowhere they should be, it doesn’t stop him from generating the power necessary to stop you in your tracks. So far, outside of Tyson Fury, no one has come close to putting an “L” on his record. This is where Luis Ortiz steps in.

Before their first match, Ortiz was seen as a serious test to Wilder, a southpaw with power that has the boxing smarts to make it competitive. Despite being labeled a cheater due to his failed drug test in 2017, Wilder had no problem accepting a fight with him the following year. Ortiz’s 6’4” frame isn’t that much smaller than Wilder, but his 78” reach definitely kept him on the receiving end of some punches. However, this doesn’t mean Ortiz didn’t have a few tricks up his sleeve. 2 years ago in the same arena, Wilder faced off against Artur Szpilka (another southpaw standing at 6’4” with a 76” reach, sound familiar?). Szpilka used his speed to duck under many of Wilder’s strikes and work his way on the inside with plenty of jabs all while hurting Wilder in the pocket.

Up until the ninth round, the punch stats for both fighters were pretty close, indicating that by no means was this an easy fight for either. Alas, Wilder was able to connect with a vicious right hand that kept Szpilka down on the canvas for quite some time. Ortiz presented a lot of the same problems in his fight with Wilder as well. Ortiz made sure to mind his P’s and Q’s and constantly keep his right foot on the outside, peppering Wilder with plenty of jabs to his lead side and head. When Wilder would bring his hands up to protect his head, a left straight would thud right into Wilder’s body, scoring points and sapping away at his energy. Since Wilder never fixed his original problem of simply just jerking his head back for his defense, it meant that Ortiz was able to take advantage of Wilder’s sloppy footwork and make sure he would have turn into him every time. Since this fight was taking place in the open stance (southpaw vs orthodox), it gave Ortiz the opportunity to smother Wilder’s lead hand with his own, setting up his left straight for down the middle.

The left would hurt Wilder badly in the 7th round, prompting the judges to score it 10-8 for Ortiz even without a knockdown. By now you can probably guess how the fight ended: Wilder still finds a way to land his vicious right hand and get the fight stopped. That’s more or less how it ended up playing out, with Ortiz being exhausted after 10 rounds and absorbing a barrage of punches before the fight was stopped. Has he learned his lessons from the first time around?

Wilder is the favorite heading into this fight, and with good reason. No matter how poorly the fight is going for him, he only needs one punch to end it. Even if you have the perfect fight against Wilder, a poorly timed slip or a lapse in concentration could result in you waking up by a flashlight from an athletic commission approved doctor asking if you know where you are right now. For Ortiz to win the fight, he’s going to have play the southpaw matador AND bull for a second time and make sure that he can replicate his game plan from the first time around, but perhaps utilize a few more feints (ala Fury). Wilder’s footwork and techniques have never been anything to write home about, and if you can outlast him and not get knocked out, you just might be lucky enough to win (or end up like Tyson Fury and lose at the hands of the judges.) A win for Wilder means that his very lucrative fight with Fury can proceed as scheduled, but an upset win by Ortiz means that another dark horse has emerged in the heavyweight division to lay claim as the best in the world. Heavyweight boxing is finally fun to watch again.