Preview: Woodley vs. Burns (Patreon)

When Tyron Woodley heard the final bell at the end of five rounds in his title match against Kamaru Usman, he knew the writing was on the wall. For almost every second of the 25-minute fight, he was out-worked, out-pointed, and had no answer for Usman's offensive onslaught. That was over a year ago. Woodley has been out of action for close to 14 months, but it wasn't entirely his fault. A rematch with Robbie Lawler was slated to take place on June 29th, 2019, but Woodley was forced to withdraw due to a hand injury. Once he recovered, Woodley was matched against a surging Leon Edwards earlier this year. Then came the COVID-19 outbreak and the fight was canceled. Woodley wanted to get back to action sooner than later, all he needed was a dance partner. Enter Gilbert Burns.

While Woodley was out of action, Gilbert Burns compiled a 4-0 record and made his return to welterweight. In his last two fights, Burns took out dangerous grapplers Demian Maia and Gunnar Nelson. Burns has been in the UFC for roughly six years, but his notoriety mostly comes from Brazilian jiu-jitsu. In 2011, Burns achieved the highest prize in BJJ, a gold medal in the World Championships. He followed this up with another gold medal at the No-Gi World Championships in 2013. In 2015 he won a bronze medal at ADCC, but by then, his focus had already shifted to MMA. After going undefeated in the Brazilian MMA circuit, Burns made his UFC debut in 2014 as a welterweight before moving down to lightweight soon after. While at 155 pounds, Burns would alternate wins and losses, and it looked as if he would have trouble hanging with the top of the division. Since his return to welterweight, there's been a lot to like in his performances.

At 5'10" with a 71" reach, Burns isn't exactly a physical powerhouse. On the feet, he doesn't do anything in particular that stands out. He doesn't have one-punch knockout power or slick offensive striking. However, he's comfortable on the feet and has no problem standing and trading if necessary. (Think of him as a better Jake Shields.) Through working with Henri Hooft at Hard Knocks 365 has given Burns more confidence and a few more tools that he'll bring to his fight with Woodley.

Burns has a fast rear leg calf kick, which he used to hurt Alexey Kunchenko. Burns also has a much-improved right straight. But due to his lack in reach, Burns does most of his best work in the counters.

Against Nelson and Maia, Burns used his counter left hook against the southpaw jabs. Another favorite of his is the right kick, right straight combo, thrown in tandem as a double threat from the same side.

(Burns times a perfect left hook when his opponent's jab hangs out just too long in the open. A perfect counter to use on southpaws.)

(Burns will follow a right kick with a right punch, giving his opponents two attacks to worry about.)

The ground is where you might expect Burns to do his best work, but you'd be surprised when you look at his record. Out of 14 UFC fights, he has as many finishes with his punches as he does with his submissions (four and four). Perhaps the level of competition is harder to take down, or perhaps he's taken a page out of the Rafael Dos Anjos playbook and is learning to win on the feet. The answer could be a bit of both.

Burns also has an unusual takedown where he'll drop down to both knees before exploding up to finish. This used to be much more common in the past, with fighters like Mark Kerr, Tatsuya Kawajiri, and Carlos Newton—though you’ll also see Kevin Lee use it from time to time. It takes a bit more energy but does have the advantage of being so low that it can catch opponents by surprise. If Burns can't finish from there, he'll work his way back up to the feet and be in the clinch, ready for a trip takedown.

(It might not be pretty, but you can't deny that Burns has more success with these kinds of takedowns than others in his weight class.)

Burns might have improved, but there is no doubt that Woodley is his biggest test. The former welterweight champion might look like he's slowed down in his last fight, but this is still the man that dropped both Darren Till and Stephen Thompson. With four title defenses and a list of fallen contenders to his name, Woodley is still one of the most decorated welterweights and most likely a future UFC Hall of Famer. With explosive takedowns and legitimate knockout power, Woodley can end the fight in an instant—or play the long game and beat you on points.

(Look at the clock. This video is not sped up, that's just how fast Woodley can be when he's firing on all cylinders.)

When Woodley is on offense, his up and down movements are quick, and like a piston working overtime, his core is never in the same spot for long. He can explode with punches at any moment. Vitor Belfort had a similar offensive style early in his career. Still, Woodley has excellent wrestling as a secondary threat. But just like Burns, Woodley also has a peculiar habit when it comes to his takedowns. Instead of shooting to get his opponents towards the fence, Woodley prefers to take his opponents down towards the center. This could be why Woodley will place himself with his back against the fence (generally a bad idea and one that has cost him), daring opponents to approach him so he could meet them with punches or a takedown. If Woodley opts for the takedown, the opponent will have nowhere to wall-walk and work their way back up. You either get brutal ground and pound or a possible submission. Josh Koscheck thought he was in charge when he started stalking Woodley towards the fence, only to be met by a thunderous right hook to the temple.

(Koscheck was so confident in his ability to control the fight that he threw a lazy right hand, only to be greeted immediately with a hook from Woodley that knocked him out cold.)

Woodley's back to the fence strategy combined with his power and wrestling makes him a scary challenge for anyone in the division. In his last win over Darren Till, Woodley moved back towards the fence to lure Till in, only to push off with strikes into the clinch where he could lower himself for takedowns. He wasn't successful keeping Till down, but Till was now worried.

Terrified of getting clipped with punches or getting taken down and beaten, Till gave no real offense in the first round and was picked apart by the 5'9" Woodley (both have the same reach of 74"). Till eventually launched his own offense in the second round, but Woodley countered with a timed right hand that dropped him. After some ground and pound to soften Till up, Woodley finished him with a D'Arce choke, the second of his career. The fight with Till best encapsulates everything that Woodley does best.

(When Till decides to commit to his attacks and steps in, Woodley moves his head slightly off-center and catches Till clean with his right hand. He was able to knock down Demian Maia in a similar fashion.)

Although Woodley comes from a long line of wrestlers that developed strong right hands (think Dan Henderson, Ryan Bader, Yoel Romero), Woodley has the distinction of being a UFC champion. As such, he is no stranger to five-round fights. Although many love to point out that Woodley is prone to gassing, this happens far less than is reported. Woodley is good at controlling his output. Much like Yoel Romero, Woodley will also take time between his offense to feint and appear busy, buying himself time and keeping his opponents on a hair-trigger. Since he prefers having his back towards the fence, there's less incentive for Woodley to chase and pressure opponents, giving the appearance of "stalling" to some fight fans. However, the last time he started pressing towards his opponents, Stephen Thompson landed straight punches to his midsection. Why play into someone else's game when yours is tried and true?

For Woodley to win, he's going to have to do what he does best: lure Burns to chase him and hit him with power. Burns has been hurt before on the feet, including a knockout loss to Dan Hooker. Although it wouldn't be the best idea to take Burns down and keep him there for extended periods of the fight, well-timed doubles and singles could score points and make Burns hesitant to engage, ala Darren Till. If Burns tries to implement a similar strategy to his teammate Kamaru Usman, Woodley should switch it up and go on the offensive. Burns does leave himself open whenever he throws kicks, leaving his chin up in the air. Burns is also susceptible to being pressured towards the fence himself, as almost all his opponents have been able to do so. Even the slower and older Demain Maia was able to take him down from the fence. Woodley also has a decent kicking game, as seen in the Carlos Condit fight. Perhaps because he mostly backs up now, kicks are no longer a staple of his game. But when he has kicked in the past, they’ve done serious damage. If he can time Burns's calf kicks with his own, it could throw Burns off balance and dissuade him from throwing any more.

Burns has a lot going against him, but he does have the advantage of working with a coach and teammate that has beaten Woodley. Usman was able to overwhelm Woodley with his pressure and pace, as well as taking Woodley down during strategic moments of the fight, hammering his midsection. Burns is the bigger submission threat on the ground, so it'll be in Woodley's best interest to work his way up as soon as possible instead of simply trying to defend punches and submissions. Against both Thompson and Usman, Woodley went for a guillotine choke only to have both men slip out and end up on top. This would be disaster against someone like Burns, who can take this momentary lapse in judgment to retaliate with a submission of his own.

On the feet, Burns can use low line sidekicks and front kicks to keep Woodley at a distance, as Usman and Thompson have previously done. Thompson also had a lot of success feinting and getting Woodley to swing at air. Burns can also try the same strategy that Rory MacDonald and Jake Shields employed: pounding Woodley with jabs and using feints to keep him from bursting forward, then following up with body shots and kicks.

Burns is the betting underdog and has never been in a five-round fight. Woodley has everything to lose and Burns has everything to gain in this fight. Perhaps Woodley is underestimating Burns and considers this an easy W and this is why he took this fight. Perhaps Woodley just needs the money. Either way, the pace of Woodley's fights have become somewhat predictable, and his previous victories were mostly against one-dimensional opponents. Lawler, Thompson, and Till only wanted to strike. Opponents like Demian Maia and Dong Hyun Kim prefer to take things to the ground. Against fighters that can do it all, Woodley has struggled. (Usman, MacDonald, Gastelum, and even Shields come to mind.) We also can't ignore the fact that Woodley is 38, the second oldest in the division (behind Maia, who is 42). Even though Woodley is the former champ, Burns might be catching him at just the right time and this could be a passing of the torch. We won’t know until we see what happens this Saturday.