Preview: Woodley vs. Covington (Patreon)

Back when Tyron Woodley was still the UFC welterweight champion, there was one opponent that everyone wanted him to fight: Colby Covington. As fight fans, we get spoiled with compelling match-ups, but this fight never materialized. Injuries, contract disputes, and delayed surgeries to both Woodley and Covington kept them from facing each other. A lot has changed since Woodley’s days as champion. Kamaru Usman dispatched both Woodley and Covington to become the undisputed king at 170 pounds, leaving open a contender bout between the former champ and the former interim champ. Even though there isn’t a title on the line, this fight is still a grudge match with genuine bad blood. No one likes losing, especially to someone that’s been berating you for close to three years.

Woodley finds himself on the heels of back-to-back losses, an unfamiliar territory. It’s undeniable that the former welterweight champion has slowed down a bit and he hasn’t made the adjustments to compensate for his decrease in speed. Woodley has knocked both Darren Till and Stephen Thompson down, but since then, he has been on the losing side of striking exchanges. Despite having the credentials to get inducted into the UFC Hall of Fame, Woodley’s current performances doesn’t make the case for a title bout. However, Woodley’s wrestling and knockout power still make him a threat in the division.

Woodley has a bad habit of putting his back against the fence, but he still does pressure effectively from time to time. His level changes are quick, which throw off his opponent’s timing. When it comes to takedowns, Woodley prefers to shoot when his opponents are in the center of the cage. This could explain why Woodley places his back against the fence since opponents might not fear Woodley’s wrestling from that direction. If Woodley does attempt a takedown, an opponent is denied the opportunity to wall-walk and will have to try another method to get back to their feet. Woodley was able to out-strike Stephen Thompson by fighting on the backfoot. When Woodley had him pinned on the ground, it was away from the fence so that Thompson couldn’t use the cage to work his way back up.

(Even though Thompson is the more seasoned striker, Woodley’s ability to threaten the takedown allowed him to be patient and set up the right hand.)

His last victory over Darren Till showcased Woodley’s counter-striking. Woodley moved back towards the fence to get Till to come forward. When Till took the bait, Woodley punched into the clinch so he could attempt single and double legs. Even though Woodley didn’t secure any takedowns, Till’s fear of getting beaten on the ground kept him from landing any meaningful strikes. It was odd seeing the 5’9” Woodley controlling the striking range against the 6’ Till, but keep in mind that they both have the same 74" reach. Knowing that he was down one round, Till threw caution aside and tried to land a 1-2, only to begin his demise.

(Till led with the jab in an attempt to connect with his southpaw straight. Woodley’s right hand was able to sneak through and dropped Till, which was soon followed by ground and pound.)

Woodley has four successful title defenses and wins over some of the best in the division. Yet, he’s lost a step or two in the past few years. Colby Covington, however, has not deteriorated—as far as we know. Covington’s MAGA-chud personality is as grating as it is infuriating, but as a fighter, he’s talented. The southpaw Covington has better than average striking, and it’s built off his wrestling-heavy arsenal. Against Robbie Lawler, Rafael Dos Anjos, and Demian Maia, Covington showed a disciplined jabbing game with a good understanding of how to set up his straights. His wrestling and reliable gas tank give Covington the confidence to move forward and throw strikes, mixing in kicks and punches without the worry of a takedown. A neat combination of his is the left high kick, right hook to jab, and overhand left. Even if the strikes don’t land, it gives Covington opportunities to attempt grappling exchanges from close range.

(The right high kick kept Dos Anjos’s hands high, which gave Covington the chance to enter in with hooks. Even though they didn’t do a lot of damage, Covington used the punches to dive in toward Dos Anjos’s legs and take his back.)

In his most recent title fight, Covington started strong and had Usman hurt. By focusing on combinations, Covington kept Usman’s head from shifting, which made him vulnerable to follow-up strikes. Since Usman’s takedowns come mostly from clinch exchanges, Covington made sure to throw as many kicks as possible to hamper Usman’s mobility and to keep him at range. For a wrestler, Covington throws a high volume of kicks which he’s able to transition into takedowns. Usman’s wrestling savvy prevented all of Covington's takedowns, but Covington still found his moments to win in exchanges.

(Early on, Covington pumped out the jabs to set up his rear kick. Immediately after, Covington threw a left straight and finished with a low kick. The activity level stayed consistent for most of the fight.)

Covington doesn’t have the physicality to finish opponents with ground and pound. Instead, he relies on his conditioning to tire out his opponents and diminish their chances of a comeback. After throwing flashy strikes (such as spinning kicks or elbows), Covington’s opponents move back with limited space to sprawl. Covington can keep his pace high for the first 15 minutes, but he does taper off a bit in the fourth and fifth rounds. If he’s going to wilt, odds are it’s going to be later on in the fight.

For Woodley to win, he’s going to have to start leading again. The good news is that Woodley has a good track record against southpaws, with Till, Thompson, and Lawler all getting dropped by his right straight. Pressuring Covington with feints and level changes aren’t going to be enough, the wrestling threat of Woodley might be a wash against another All-American wrestler. Since everyone knows how powerful the right hand can be, adding a left hook could give Woodley another weapon to hurt Covington. Covington is two inches taller at 5’11”, but he has the shorter reach at 72.” Woodley can also start targeting Covington’s midsection, something that Usman did early which visibly tired Covington during the championship rounds. Whether it was with front kicks or uppercuts, Usman made sure to land something to the body at least once every minute. Woodley’s kicks aren’t anything to sneeze at, he TKO’ed Carlos Condit with repeated leg kicks. Bringing these back will allow Woodley to give Covington another threat to worry about. There’s no reason for him to hold back now, there’s no championship on the line nor is there a future guaranteed title shot for the winner. Well, maybe there is for Covington.

Speaking of Covington, he has the advantage of studying 10 rounds of how to beat Woodley. Both Usman and Burns backed Woodley up to the fence where they boxed him up, kicked his legs, and clinched him until they were able to secure takedowns. Usman overwhelmed Woodley with pressure and pace, as well as taking him down during strategic moments of the fight and poured on the ground and pound. Burns used the same playbook to replicate the same results. During moments where Woodley hesitated, Burns picked Woodley apart with kicks, straight punches, and left hooks. When Woodley moved forward, Burns changed levels and took him down. It’s not a stretch of the imagination to think that Covington can do the same.

Woodley is in the twilight of his career. At 38, his chances of becoming a champion again become harder by the day. He’s a betting underdog going into this fight, but perhaps for one night he can show the same versatility he did as a top contender, along with some veteran savvy, and once again shock the world.