Fight Study 76 – UFC 253 (transcript) (Patreon)

UFC 253 has come and gone, and both title fights didn’t make it past the second round. In the main event, Israel Adesanya beat Paulo Costa by TKO at 3:59 seconds in round 2. In the co-main event, Jan Błachowicz beat Dominick Reyes by TKO at 4:36 seconds also in the second round. Both title fights were exciting for as long as they lasted, and we got to see some excellent work from Adesanya and Błachowicz. Although their styles are completely different, both Adesanya and Błachowicz found success by keeping their respective opponents from moving effectively and utilizing their A game. Let’s start with breaking down the main event.

Adesanya walked into this fight as the middleweight champion, and he left without any signs of struggle. Despite the fight being billed as two equally skilled combatants, Adesanya looked like he was in a class of his own, with Costa just there to take lessons. Although both are strikers, they have different methods of winning on the feet. Adesanya is all about creating angles to attack and countering at just the right moments, whereas Costa does his best work when he’s marching forward and forcing opponents to respect his power.

Costa is an infighter by the purest definition. Whether he’s looking for clean strikes to the midsection or swinging hooks to your head, Costa loves nothing more than to get your back to the fence where he can unload with his punches and the occasional body kick. Although it’s favored by southpaws, using the round kick to stop an opponent in their tracks is quite effective. The goal is to keep an opponent from escaping out one side and trapping them in between your strikes. Costa throws round kicks from orthodox so he can get opponents to stay still long enough for his lead and rear hooks to do their magic. It might seem sloppy but take a closer look and you’ll see Costa mix in right straights and constant punches to the body to keep opponents guessing.

In this fight, Costa did almost none of that. It’s nice to see him exercise more patience, but his strategy of absorbing damage to stay fresh in the later rounds didn’t pan out. Even though it’s not ideal to take a strike to give one, staying on the outside and getting his leg kicked to oblivion isn’t helpful. Adesanya doesn’t exactly leave a lot of openings, and his feints are among the best in the division. For every leg kick that Costa landed, Adesanya returned with eight. If you’re not great with calculating numbers off the top of your head, we got you covered. Costa landed three out of five leg strikes, while Adesanya landed 26 out of 27. For head strikes, Adesanya landed 24 out of 51, while Costa barely mustered 2 out of 13. The only area where Costa seemed to have a slight advantage was body strikes, with 7 of 8 connecting, but Adesanya wasn’t far behind with 5 out 6 of his own. For someone who has the highest number of significant strikes thrown per minute in the division, Costa was content laying back and hoping to get Adesanya to rush in.  

Costa had moments of success. When he threw kicks with his lead leg, they connected to Adesanya’s midsection. One even whizzed past Adesanya’s head. The low kicks connected 60% of the time, so it definitely should have been something that was thrown more often. Robert Whittaker and Kelvin Gastelum had success by kicking Adesanya’s lead leg as he slid out the way. Even though Adesanya’s head is out of danger, his leg is vulnerable to kicks. Even though it’s proven to be a successful strategy, many don’t seem to keep up with the kicks to the trailing leg.

What seems to trouble Costa is when opponents start moving towards his left side. If he hasn’t cornered them against the cage, they can often take a step back and start moving towards Costa’s left and escape unharmed since he doesn’t have seem to have many tools to stop them in their tracks (other than the wheel kick). If the opponent can duck under the wheel kick or the hook, they can usually move out the way without any consequence. Adesanya did a great job of switching stances on his last step before having his back pinned against the fence, creating the needed open stance to dart out. His ability to change directions at the last second is reminiscent of prime Eddie Alvarez and Miguel Cotto.

Coverage of this fight wouldn’t be complete without talking about the jabs that Adesanya was able to land. The fight preview also covered how Costa’s hook heavy punches are vulnerable to the jabs, and he absorbed many of them. Uriah Hall was able to hurt Costa while moving backwards since Costa’s forward pressure created the collisions without any additional power required from Hall. Adesanya was more measured with his jabs and used them to further set up additional punches and kicks.

By the time the second round began, Costa was beginning to show signs of damage. Accumulated damage from the leg kicks hampered Costa’s mobility, keeping him in place while Adesanya unloaded combinations. Costa had trouble keeping up the pace and every time he got hit, it showed in his face. The jabs started landing easier and Costa had no answer. A final exchange where Costa swung and Adesanya answered back with a left hook wobbled Costa and dropped him. Adesanya pounced on Costa with some ground and pound and ended the fight. When the referee waved it off, Adesanya silenced his critics who said that the fight against Yoel Romero has exposed him. Adesanya is now a perfect 20-0 in his MMA career, and without a real threat to his title reign.

It might seem like he’s new to fight game, but if you count his kickboxing matches, this was Adesanya’s 100th win. He’s been in combat sports for a long time at a high level, so no one should be surprised that he’s as successful as he is. It’s hard to say where he’ll end up in MMA history when it’s all said and done, but he’s on his way to becoming one of the greatest middleweights in the division. Adesanya has the advantage of fighting at 185 pounds when all the wrestling and grappling based fighters are aging out or too battle-worn to be real threats on the ground. Other strikers always have a chance at catching him clean, but he seems to be improving his fight IQ, from match to match. It’s going to tough for any challenger to take the title away.

For Costa, he fought a fight that was definitely not in his element. It’s hard to say whether the movements really did keep him from advancing or he was exercising more caution so he wouldn’t gas out, but the patient approach didn’t do him any favors in this fight. We spoke before about how Costa absorbs the highest amount of significant strikes at middleweight, but he’s also the one that dishes out the most damage per minute. In this case, he showed none of the aggression but got all of the punishment. He’s still young enough to make adjustments and bounce back, but he should avoid the strategy that he utilized in this fight.

When it comes to future match-ups, Adesanya seems to have already called his shots. Trying to match Anderson Silva’s title reign is a tough task, but Adesanya is young and skilled enough to try and pull it off. If Jared Cannonier can get past Robert Whittaker, he might be next in line to try his luck at dethroning Adesanya. If Whittaker beats Cannonier, he could plead for a rematch and see if he can make the right adjustments for their second fight.

Costa is in a different spot altogether and should be matched up a bit more carefully. He took a lot of damage in this fight and might need someone who’s willing to strike with him, but can’t match his firepower. Derek Brunson is coming off a big win over Edmen Shahbazyan and is on a three-fight win streak. If Costa can manage to stop another veteran, he might find himself right in the title mix again. If Brunson can get a win over Costa, that’ll be four in a row with two of those wins coming over ranked opponents. It’s definitely something for the matchmakers to consider.

In the co-main event, Jan Błachowicz continued his spoiler campaign and defeated Dominick Reyes to become the undisputed light heavyweight champion. With Jon Jones vacating the belt, Błachowicz and Reyes were the next in line for a title shot. Reyes was coming off a close loss against Jones, and Błachowicz had racked up three wins in a row. At 37 years old, Błachowicz is the second oldest to ever hold the light heavyweight belt, younger than when Randy Couture won the title, but older than Daniel Cormier by a year when he beat Anthony Johnson in 2015. A further examination of Błachowicz’s career deserves a deeper dive in a future “Veteran to Champion” article, but for now it’s safe to say he’s had a hell of a year. In 14 months, Błachowicz went from coming off a knockout loss against Thiago Santos to becoming champion. His string of victories towards a title is reminiscent of another “Veteran to Champion” case study, Michael Bisping. Anyways, that’s enough teasing for a future project, let’s talk about this fight briefly.

Reyes came into this fight as the anointed one, declaring himself the people’s champion. Many pundits felt that as the younger, quicker fighter with the more modern skillset, he would have an easy time against Błachowicz. Instead, we saw all the improvements that Błachowicz made on full display. It could be that Reyes was conserving his energy for the later rounds, after all he did tire in rounds four and five against Jon Jones. However, that doesn’t explain the technical deficiencies he showed. Błachowicz used low kicks early to stop Reyes’s mobility, but Reyes returned the favor with body and inside low kicks of his own. What seemed to really trouble Reyes was Błachowicz’s right hand lead into lead left kick to the body, with the occasional hooks snuck in between for good measure. This is an underrated tool to use against southpaws, since their right side is open for attacks, making them vulnerable against strikes to the liver. Błachowicz did the same thing against Rockhold, and he was able to use it again on a different southpaw in Reyes. Every now and then Reyes would catch Błachowicz with 1-2’s, but he just couldn’t seem to get things going. Błachowicz didn’t buy into any of Reyes’s feints, and no matter how much Reyes pressured Błachowicz, it didn’t seem to make him back down. Compounding all this was Reyes’s inability to safely close the distance to hit Błachowicz with his own offense while looking out for his counters.

In the preview, we talked about how Błachowicz has managed to make his awkward style work for him, and it’s effective enough to thwart guys like Reyes. Błachowicz is hard to time and his strikes don’t have a predictable pattern. Opponents have to either be willing to wade in and hope to catch him with his hands down or try to pick him apart from a distance. In the second round, Reyes’s right side looked as if someone took a bat and swung at him. It was clear the kicks were in the back of his mind, it could have affected his mobility and decision making. Eventually, the forward blitz of Błachowicz proved to be too much. Reyes didn’t offer much in terms of counter, instead he shelled up his arms and retreated back. Błachowicz never attacked twice with the same combination, and he tried his best at timing them right after his kicks or finished his combinations with the lead left kick. Reyes’s defense of simply keeping his forearms up wasn’t enough to keep a right hand from sneaking through, and it seemed to have broken his nose. Feeling like the fight was slipping away from him, Reyes marched forward with attacks, right into Błachowicz’s counter game. After timing a lead right hand with his trademark left hook, Błachowicz dropped Reyes and finished him with ground and pound, becoming the new UFC light heavyweight champion.

Błachowicz has now added another title to his mantle, where he can place the UFC belt right next to his KSW one. Poland once again has a UFC champion to call their own, even if the division isn’t as deep as they would like. Błachowicz has had a remarkable career turnaround, and it’ll be interesting to see who the UFC decides should be his first title defense. An interesting possibility is Thiago Santos, who holds a knockout win over Błachowicz and also gave Jon Jones a tough fight in their match. Santos is currently slated to face Glover Teixeira in November, and a win there could help him cement himself as the clear cut next in line. Speaking of Teixeira, he’s also managed to rack up a four-fight win streak, so if he were to beat Santos, giving him a title shot wouldn’t be out of the question either.

For Reyes, he’s in a tougher spot. He’s lost two in a row, with this loss much more definitive than his Jon Jones loss. Reyes is still young and developing, and the loss exposed some flaws in his game. He definitely needs to work on finding ways to close the distance effectively and slipping away from strikes instead of covering up to retreat straight back. If the UFC wants to make sure Reyes develops properly, giving him someone slightly outside the top five might be for the best. He has years left in the sport so there’s no need to cram as many top five opponents as possible to get their money’s worth. Anthony Smith might be a good match-up. Smith can match Reyes in terms of height and reach, and he’s also coming off two losses in a row. Smith is also ranked #8 in the division, so Reyes is still getting someone in the top ten. That might be fun for as long as it lasts.     

If the UFC really wanted to get creative, they can set up a future champion vs champion match-up by pitting Adesanya against Błachowicz. If they can both defend their respective titles once more, the UFC has another super fight in the making. With Jones moving up to heavyweight, the 205-pound weight class might be slightly easier for Adesanya to try and take over. Błachowicz is skilled but doesn’t have the same wrestling threat or reach of Jones. Błachowicz can also aim for greatness by being the first person to beat Adesanya in MMA. After all, Adesanya has proved that he’s susceptible to left hooks, and who better than Błachowicz to try and exploit it? For the first time in a while, both weight classes are exciting, and the UFC might actually go through with a champion vs champion between the middleweights and light heavyweight. Time will tell, at least we’ll have plenty of other fights to discuss in the meantime.