The Streak and WTF Happened to Tony Ferguson (Bonus) (Patreon)

Tony Ferguson debuted in the UFC on June 4, 2011, winning The Ultimate Fighter 13 with a knockout over Ramsey Nijem. Ferguson followed that up with victories over Aaron Riley and Yves Edwards. Then he faced Michael Johnson, who dropped Tony Ferguson and beat him up for three rounds. Johnson and Ferguson fought in 2012, now consider where they both are today. As impressive as Tony Ferguson's streak has been, it spanned seven years and over a lot of accumulated damage.

Ferguson after Johnson made quick work of Mike Rio and Katsunori Kikuno. Then Ferguson fought Danny Castillo to a split decision victory, but Ferguson was taken down several times and even mounted. Ferguson is indeed a submission specialist but being able to get submissions is not the same as being able to maintain position. Damian Maia and other elite grapplers can do both; Tony Ferguson was never good at both. Much of this misconception came from Joe Rogan's hyperbole surrounding Ferguson's ground game. Ferguson's grappling instructor Eddie Bravo was also a submission specialist who was not equally skilled at battling for position. 10th Planet MMA fighters, in general, have had a weakness in this area.

Against Abel Trujillo, Trujillo, not known for his striking prowess, dropped Ferguson and got multiple takedowns. Eventually, Trujillo tired and was finished by Ferguson. Against Gleison Tibau and Josh Thomson is when Ferguson took it up a notch. He did what he was supposed to, get takedowns, and win exchanges. However, these were aging veterans near their retirements.

Edson Barboza was Tony Ferguson's first real test against another top prospect in the division. If you recall, this is the fight where Barboza took an illegal upkick that rocked him in the first round. Barboza was finished in round two by a choke, but Ferguson took a lot of damage in this fight. After this fight, Ferguson fought a debuting Lando Vanata. Vanata who has a sub 50 win percentage in the UFC, was not only able to drop Ferguson but nearly finish him in the first round. Ferguson took an incredible amount of damage. Vanata was hurting Ferguson at the start of round two, but since this was a short-notice fight for Vanata, his pace slowed, and this was all Ferguson needed to lock in a choke.

Ferguson was at his peak against former champion Rafael dos Anjos. Again, we need to put this in context to explain Ferguson's current decline. The fight was in Mexico City, which is known for its altitude. RDA had just left King's MMA and was training himself. A lack of a competent corner was apparent in this fight. RDA also had a challenging weight cut, which is why he left the division. The fight was competitive, with RDA winning the first, but by round five, Ferguson had taken over, and RDA looked like he didn't want to be there.

Ferguson now had an interim title fight against another short-notice opponent, Kevin Lee. By now, you shouldn't be surprised to hear Ferguson was again dropped, taken down, and mounted. It was obvious in the broadcast that Kevin Lee had an active staph infection on his chest, and by the second round, Kevin Lee was gassed. Though Kevin Lee started round three with an emphatic slam takedown, eventually Tony Ferguson slapped on a triangle choke on a slowing Kevin Lee. Tiring out in fights has become a pattern for Lee, who has great potential but an inconsistent career.

In April of 2018, Tony Ferguson completely tore his left knee. After reconstructive surgery, rather than going to physical therapy, Ferguson rehabbed his knee himself and fought Anthony Pettis in October of the same year. The fight was a bloody affair with Tony Ferguson once again getting dropped. Are you keeping count? Mind you, this is ONLY his OFFICIAL UFC bouts. We've previously covered the career decline of Anthony Pettis here. 

Pettis was another opponent who fought Ferguson on short-notice, a pattern that's benefited Ferguson's 12-fight win streak. In an interview with Ariel Helwani, Pettis said he only took the fight because he was drinking a lot during that period of his career and was drunk when he got the call.

The fight between Ferguson and Pettis was halted due to Pettis breaking his hand and his corner wisely deciding their fighter should not continue.

If Ferguson's fight with RDA was his peak, then against Kevin Lee, he was already on his downtrend. Not long after this fight, Ferguson had a very public mental health crisis that had his wife putting a restraining order on him. However, Ferguson has had a history of mental health issues that dates back to 2011, when he was removed from a flight due to another mental health episode. How long this has been an issue is unclear but it appears to have started before he made getting punched in the face a profession.

By March of 2019, Tony Ferguson was not cleared to compete in MMA. By June of 2019, he was fighting Donald Cerrone. Though Ferguson won, his performance decline from RDA continued. Having a competitive back-and-forth fight with a shopworn Donald Cerrone who was nowhere near a title shot was not a good sign. Much like the Pettis fight, this fight was also stopped due to injury, as Cerrone could no longer see after trying to blow his nose. For fans unfamiliar, when your nose is bloodied in a fight, your corner will tell you not to blow your nose as that will cause inflammation and your eye to swell. This is what happened to Cerrone.

Much of the hype around Tony Ferguson came from his streak and his friendship with Joe Rogan and Eddie Bravo, two of the most famous figures in MMA. Brendan Schaub has made a lucrative career just by being their buddy.

Ferguson fought for the interim belt again, this time against Justin Gaethje. Much was made by Rogan about how close Ferguson came to winning the fight with an uppercut, but beyond that singular punch, Gaethje beat Ferguson up from pillar to post. What was most frightening is how the fight was stopped, not because of a KO or a flurry of punches, but from how Ferguson reacted to a jab. The referee jumped in due to cumulative damage and to prevent any permanent damage.

In December of 2020, Tony Ferguson fought a surging Charles Oliveira, who is on a possible veteran to championship run. Oliveira beat Ferguson in every facet of the game and nearly broke Ferguson's arm at the end of round one. In my opinion, this version of Charles Oliveira would beat the Tony Ferguson who beat RDA, because Ferguson has always gotten hurt on the feet, been susceptible to takedowns, and having his guard passed. Ferguson also took an incredible amount of damage in this fight, which is also a pattern. The damage is taking a toll, and Ferguson himself is slowing down and become durable. Something also to factor is how fighters not only age but their styles can also age. Stance switching and feints threw off a lot of fighters, but it is becoming the norm in contemporary MMA.

Ferguson didn't all of a sudden fall off; it's been happening since his war with RDA. Perhaps we didn't notice, but that was the first time Ferguson fought for 25 minutes. Even though he didn't ever get close to being finished, that's still more damage than he's taken in any previous fight. Against Vanata, he took 26 punches to the head; against RDA, he took 84. In his fights against Lee, Pettis, and Cerrone, he didn't put on an MMA clinic as he did against Josh Thomson. Instead, he showed guts and determination. He was winning but looking worse and worse. His technical flaws that were there since entering the octagon also never disappeared. Since he was supposed to fight Khabib Nurmagomedov so many times, we associate Ferguson with Nurmagomedov and assume both are equally dominant, but they are not. One could say Ferguson excelled despite his limitations and personal issues, but now unlike before, he can no longer come back from taking a massive amount of damage and being positionally dominated. Perhaps it's time to finally have that rematch with Donald Cerrone, but hopefully, it won't be at Bare Knuckle FC.