Southpaw Guide to Nurmagomedov vs Gaethje (transcript) (Patreon)

For years analysts have predicted that Justin Gaethje would be Khabib Nurmagomedov's toughest challenge. Even Gaethje himself proclaimed this. There were several legitimate reasons for people to not only believe Gaethje would be a tough task but that Gaethje had what it took to beat Nurmagomedov. 

Gaethje hit hard, was a great kicker, and seemingly impossible to takedown. The logic bias was this: since Nurmagomedov is perceived as a very poor striker, even a mediocre striker could knock Nurmagomedov out so long as he doesn't get taken down. Thinking Gaethje could beat Nurmagomedov had less to do with how good people thought Gaethje was and more to do with how little they thought of Nurmagomedov's MMA striking Stop Nurmagomedov's takedowns and he's a sitting duck. Many still believe this. Hell, many still think Nurmagomedov vs. Ferguson might still happen. 

With that said, Gaethje did have a lot of momentum coming into the Nurmagomedov fight based on how he defeated Tony Ferguson, which we covered in one of our recent bonus episodes where we detailed how Ferguson's decline started much earlier in his career along with his mental health issues. 

Also worth noting is that Nurmagomedov fought this fight with a broken foot.

Seemingly, everything was there for an upset yet that didn't happen. To understand why, I need to walk you through this fight.

As soon as referee Jason Herzog starts the fight, rather than touching gloves or taking the center of the cage, Nurmagomedov circles to his right to get Gaethje to turn and follow him. This is unusual because most fighters circle to their left as that's the more natural and easier direction to pivot and circle.

Nurmagomedov steps in and out to see Gaethje's reaction. Gaethje pushes off his back foot reacting to the feints ready to counter or step in.

Notice right away, as Nurmagomedov steps in, Gaethje stays low with his left hand down ready to grab an underhook, and his back leg light, ready to sprawl. Compare their two stances, Nurmagomedov is defensively sound whereas Gaethje is in a poor position other than to sprawl. Is the idea you can be this compromised and still outstrike Nurmagomedov?

Within the first 10 seconds, Nurmagomedov has his reads. Gaethje is reacting to every Nurmagomedov feint and constantly resetting his feet. Look at how far the two fighters are from one another, yet Gaethje still resets and circles away to his right. That speaks to how tense he is. Also, notice how now Gaethje is circling away from the direction Nurmagomedov is moving. Gaethje is circling to his right. If he goes to the left, he'll run into Nurmagomedov. This will become consistent as the fight progresses. By the end of the fight, it will become clear why setting this up was the first thing Nurmagomedov wanted to do. This was his first trap that would set everything else up.

See how Nurmagomedov walks forward and to the right. Part of why fighters move to their left is because it's more natural if you're orthodox to move towards your lead leg. Moving to the right while circling or coming forward is awkward. Yet Nurmagomedov is doing it very naturally. Something that's considered advanced even for many boxers.

This makes Gaethje reset his feet, back up, and circle to his right. Notice how when Gaethje moves to his right, he gets out of stance and essentially side shuffles upright, hands down, and both feet on the same line. When Nurmagomedov moves to his right, he maintains his stance and his guard. This says Gaethje can't move well this way. But most current MMA fighters can't.

It takes about 30 seconds for the first strike to be thrown by Gaethje. This is unusual for Gaethje who is a volume striker. It's a low calf kick that Nurmagomedov sees and tries to grab while lifting his leg. The reason for lifting his leg rather than the traditional check is so the kick will keep traveling upright into his hand. Gaethje will tense up even more after this knowing that Nurmagomedov is waiting for his kicks. This wasn't a hard read for Nurmagomedov since Gaethje kicks against the jab in all his fights.

Less than a minute into the fight and Nurmagomedov has now taken the lead and put Gaethje on the backfoot away from the center of the cage and his back to the fence. Notice their stances. Whether Nurmagomedov has poorer striking in a vacuum isn't important, what's important is who can strike and defend from these two positions? Nurmagomedov is in a textbook responsible stance whereas Gaethje has his face in front of his feet, his hands out of position, and posture broken. Gaethje doesn't throw one straight punch this whole fight because he's never in a position to throw straight punches. This posture also makes it easier for Nurmagomedov to snap him down or simply push his head down.

A minute in and Gaethje throws his second strike, another kick. The plan must be to kick from the outside while staying low. The problem with this is, he's so far away, it's easy for Nurmagomedov to avoid the kick. Gaethje puts so much into his strikes, he throws himself off balance.

And overreacts. Throughout the fight not only will Gaethje be 100 with his strike but also with every reaction, such as escaping.

On the other hand, Nurmagomedov doesn't bite on any of Gaethje's feints. Notice how Nurmagomedov doesn't compromise his stance or guard. This also looks like a feint for a takedown which Nurmagomedov would welcome.

From this position, Gaethe can only sprawl or throw looping hooks. Even kicks would be inefficient from here as it would leave him off balance. At least with punches, he can step through and switch stances if he loses balance, which Gaethje will constantly do throughout the fight.

Gaethje lands a kick but from so far away, his feet are out of position to follow up with anything else. With Nurmagomedov changing levels, rather than punch, Gaethje stiff-arms him. It's about all he can do.

From his crouched stance, and Nurmagomedov moving to his right, Gaethje only has the hooks, which throws him off balance while he's trying to turn with Nurmagomedov. Notice how Gaethje is now southpaw on one foot while punching. Gaethje is not used to punching while moving to his right. Notice how Nurmagomedov steps back and shoulder rolls but maintains his stance. Nurmagomedov will constantly keep Gaethje turning and punching on one foot.

Now that Nurmagomedov has the reads he needs, he gains confidence in crashing in on Gaethje. Knowing he can get an angle on him if he moves to his right, to get Gaethje to cross his feet, to push his head down, or tie him up. Notice how Gaethje is facing away from Nurmagomedov whereas Nurmagomedov is facing Gaethje, that's what it means to cut an angle.

Gaethje is missing most of his punches, which thrown at full power, is very tiring. He's also circling the entire perimeter of the cage. Gaethje is running a marathon while Nurmagomedov is walking a 5k.

Look at the difference in distance. Gaethje has to side shuffle a quarter of the cage for every two steps Nurmagomedov takes.

Since he can't circle forever unless he wants to gas himself, Gaethje has to stop. Which at this point, it's easy for Nurmagomedov to pop him with a jab while Gaethje is regaining his fighting stance. It's also the difference in circling in bad stance vs. cornering. Gaethje circled the perimeter whereas Nurmagomedov just met Gaethje at the corner he was going to be and popped him.

Look at how broken Gaethje's posture is. He's feinting a takedown but from that broken posture, Nurmagomedov would end up in a superior position even if Gaethje took the shot. These feints also don't sell if you never actually shoot.

Gaethje circles again to his right to get away from Nurmagomedov and to stop him from getting an angle on him.

When Gaethje stops, he's waiting for the jab. Which Nurmagomedov doesn't commit to.

Gaethje counters the jab with a kick, but the jab was only meant to draw out the kick. Nurmagomedov's real intent is the takedown.

Gaethje has to hustle to get out of the takedown attempt which Nurmagomedov isn't willing to chase just yet. Gaethje expended a lot of energy and has to take a breath whereas Nurmagomedov expended very little energy. Look at the distance between the two fighters now and the look on Gaethje's face. It's tense and Gaethje is constantly having to explode.

Gaethje is getting tied up whenever he's close, which is forcing him to backpedal and circle into Nurmagomedov's jabs.

There was an improvement in Gaethje's striking after he got corrective surgery for his eyes. However, he still has a habit of throwing automatic blind counters whenever he's touched. This is worsened by his crouched stance. Nurmagomedov doesn't need to hit him hard, just touch him, step back, and allow Gaethje to swing at air. Notice how Nurmagomedov has his eyes on Gaethje whereas Gaethje is looking at the ground. It's because Gaethje is punching with his head down.

Jab then draw out blind counters. Something Nurmagomedov said in the lead-up was how at this level, you don't try to break fighters, but try to break their bodies. He said he wouldn't try to break Gaethje's will but break the will of his body. This is what Nurmagomedov is doing here. Tiring Gaethje out.

Nurmagomedov throws his first front kick when Gaethje attempts to duck down. This kick seems like a mid-fight adjustment after figuring out Gaethje's strategy. Since Gaethje was ducking down, it doesn't take much to wind him.

Gaethje has to back straight up and take a big breath because the kick got him.

Before Gaethje can recover, he eats another jab.

Look at Gaethje's stance, feet, and hands after missing with a kick and immediately trying to back up. This is an accumulation from already being tense to begin with, while expending so much energy, and getting freaked out by Nurmagomedov getting to his blind spots. Isn't one of the most advanced parts of boxing the ability to cut angles and move into blind spots? Nurmagomedov seems to be better at this than Gaethje.

Nurmagomedov fakes a shot then comes in with an uppercut. Gaethje doesn't bite on the shot but the uppercut keeps Gaethje upright, which is what Nurmagomedov really wanted.

Nurmagomedov drops down for the shot but Gaethje circles away. But that's the idea, keep Gaethje upright and on stilts before taking the shot.

Now the kicks are predictable and Nurmagomedov lands a front kick before Gaethje can land his leg kick.

After each front kick, Gaethje backs straight up and takes a breath. Look at Gaethje's feet as he backs up, look at his hands. He's hurt, not a lot, but hurt. Nurmagomedov notices it right away and marches forward without concern. Nurmagomedov isn't fearless, it's like knowing how to jaywalk when you know redlight means cars have to stop. Nurmagomedov knows how to read Gaethje's signals. Gaethje knows it also, look at his facial expression.

Gaethje eats another jab. One thing that strikes me is that even if he believes he has his man hurt, Nurmagomedov won't come in throwing haymakers. Always comes in behind his jab.

Gaethje's legs are tiring out, forcing him to stand his ground, ducking and throwing haymakers. This makes it easy for Nurmagomedov to time a stepping knee, which lands flush on the forehead as Gaethje ducks down.

Gaethje isn't on wobbly legs but Nurmagomedov felt how hard it hit. Nurmagomedov is now more willing to come forward and exchange. Look where Gaethje is after the exchange. Because previously at the end of exchanges, Nurmagomedov would drop down but this time he only pushes Gaethje's head down as Gaethje overreacts and pushes away at a shot that isn't there. Look at Nurmagomedov's right hand. Even though Gaethje can't hit from here, Nurmagomedov remains defensively sound.

Look how close Gaethje is to the fence now as compared to the first minute.

Gaethje circles to his right to escape the cage and eats a left hook from Nurmagomedov because he's out of position.

Look at their body language? Look at their eyes. After getting hit, Gaethje is still circling away but rather than having his eyes on Nurmagomedov, he has his eyes on the clock. Nurmagomedov walks to Gaethje, knowing Gaethje is looking at the clock. Never in this fight did Nurmagomedov look at the clock. With as many rounds as he's fought in sparring and in the cage, Nurmagomedov must also be excellent at reading body language.

Now Nurmagomedov can safely land his 1-2s.

With his back to the fence, Gaethje eats another front kick as he ducks. It's apparent he's not just ducking to only stuff takedowns, he's also trying to duck away from Nurmagomedov's punches.

A lot of the hooks that looked like they were landing on Nurmagomedov were really hooking his lead arm and whipping him off balance. This happens often in Nurmagomedov's fights because his opponents throw every punch so hard that when it catches his arm it pushes him off balance.

Nurmagomedov also stands with his weight slightly backward and his hands in front of him, so his face is usually further away than most MMA fighters who lean heavily on the front foot. This is why it catches his lead hand and not his face.

Much like in his fight with Michael Johnson.

Now that Nurmagomedov has a read on Gaethje's offense, it's easy for him to land his own kick against Gaethje's left punch.

Here Gaethje lands a glancing left hook, but since he has to circle while doing it and because of his stance, he's thrown off balance and has to punch on one foot. Why did he throw this off-balance punch? Because he was up against the fence and Gaethje recognizes that his back against the fence against Nurmagomedov means death.

Gaethje is slowing down and predictable and now it's easy for Nurmagomedov to simply walk up and tie Gaethje up.

Look at the energy Gaethje puts into escaping the tie-up. It's this constant overreaction that forces him to regain his balance, which only tires him out further.

Nurmagomedov catches Gaethje again as he was starting to duck.

After the kick, Gaethje again has to back up and escape. Look at Gaethje's feet and how close he is to the fence. He's only walking himself into the death zone with his hands and feet out of sorts because he's hurt and tired.

Look at Gaethje's feet while circling and punching. Look at Gaethje's backfoot and how close it is to the fence. This is the ideal opportunity to shoot because not only are Gaethje's legs crossed and his stance upright, but he's also circling which means all Nurmagomedov has to do is grab him and Gaethje will turn the corner for him.

Look where they end up and Gaethje's defense. This is perfect for Nurmagomedov to dump him and get grapevines on his legs.

To everyone's surprise, Gaethje offers up very little resistance from this point on. Look at Gaethje panting. This is still the first round but Gaethje is acting like it's the fourth or fifth. But I'd say he's expended four rounds of energy in this round.

Gaethje takes a deep breath as he stares at the clock.

Every fighter now knows not to post your hands against Nurmagomedov when you're on the ground or he'll snatch it up. But Gaethje isn't paying attention and only staring at the clock.

Even here, while he's being controlled and flattened onto the mat, Gaethje stares at the clock, almost trying to will time to go faster.

Gaethje is limp and inactive. Offering up no resistance.

Instead of fighting, Gaethje still stares at the clock. Still not paying attention to his hands, putting his right arm at risk for an armbar.

Nurmagomedov falls back for an armbar but transitions to what first appears like a triangle, only to end up with a bicep slicer. But notice Nurmagomedov's right arm, how he's weaved it to control both legs to prevent Gaethje from coming up. Pay attention to this.

Notice Gaethje's right hand clearing Nurmagomedov's leg to prevent the triangle. This is why Nurmagomedov keeps the leg weave to prevent Gaethje from getting up.

Nurmagomedov is only using the bicep slicer to keep Gaethje in place as he delivers hammer fists to the body. The same body he's been working over with front kicks. This isn't to score points or end the fight, this is to weaken Gaethje for round two.

Gaethje didn't look like this even after four rounds with Ferguson. He's taking gigantic breaths.

Trevor Wittman tells Gaethje to slow it down. Gaethje responds, "Thanks, but I gotta fucking keep it." Wittman tells Gaethje to keep it, to keep the feet. But not to get lazy and to keep kicking, that he was only a few kicks away from stopping Nurmagomedov. Make note of this.

Nurmagomedov keeps the kicks going, this time not to land but to keep Gaethje upright.

Gaethje is upright but now on stilts, no knee bend, and feet crossed. Nurmagomedov has been working towards this, to get Gaethje to be irresponsible. He's also jabbing Gaethje like he did Al Iaquinta. 

Wittman asked for more kicks and Gaethje listened. Nurmagomedov was anticipating this to be the advice as this is advice Wittman gives to Gaethje in every fight. Notice how close Gaethje is when throwing the kick this time and how upright he is.

Compare this to his early kicks where he was low and kicking from further away. 

Now Gaethje is just throwing the kick as he was told because if Nurmagomedov is on one leg, it's safe to do so now. Team Gaethje was wrong, however. With a broken foot, Nurmagomedov was already fighting on one leg, which they iced in-between rounds. But that doesn't mean Nurmagomedov has lost his intelligence. Just as Gaethje was waiting for this moment, so was Nurmagomedov.

Look how upright and high Gaethje is when he tries to sprawl. What happened to the low crouch and distance? Nurmagomedov melted it away.

Now Nurmagomedov is underneath Gaethje.

When Nurmagomedov dumps him, Gaethje gets to all fours to stand back up, not wanting to be mounted like before.

Nurmagomedov takes his back, which is where Nurmagomedov finished his last two opponents. Gaethje opts to give Nurmagomedov the mount again.

Nurmagomedov this time knows Gaethje will be lazy with his hands and nonresistant and pins Gaethje's left hand to step over for a mounted triangle-armbar.

This time Nurmagomedov doesn't weave the leg, allowing Gaethje to come up into the triangle. This is an adjustment from the first attempt. Since Gaethje is coming up, Gaethje doesn't try to clear the leg and goes to defend the armbar, which puts him into the triangle.

This is the opposite of what people expected. People expected Nurmagomedov's striking to be so bad, that Gaethje only had to be competent. But instead, Gaethje's submission fighting is so bad, Nurmagomedov only had to be competent. Don't get me wrong, Nurmagomedov is fantastic on the ground but he doesn't have to go full Matrix to beat Gaethje on the ground. It's more that Gaethje didn't do much, and the few things he did weren't so good. What was amazing was everything Nurmagomedov did before it got to the ground.

Gaethje tries to slam out of the triangle but Nurmagomedov hooks Gaethje's left leg, preventing the lift. They crash back down only making the choke worse.

At this point, Gaethje taps several times where Nurmagomedov stares at Herzog and yells at him, but Herzog reacts too late and by the time he breaks it up, Gaethje is already out.

Gaethje who has said he would rather die than tap, a fighter many people believed would never tap tapped. Then again, everyone Nurmagomedov puts in a submission taps. Perhaps it's that frightening to fight Nurmagomedov, especially on the ground.

After the fight, Nurmagomedov shushes his team and the audience, knowing Gaethje's parents are in attendance.