Fight Study 86 – UFC 257 (transcript) (Patreon)

UFC 257 was the first PPV of 2021, and the promotion delivered. In the main event, Dustin Poirier defeated Conor McGregor by KO at 2 minutes and 32 seconds in round 2. In the co-main event, UFC newcomer and former Bellator lightweight champion Michael Chandler TKO’ed Dan Hooker at 2 minutes and 30 seconds in round 1. It’s hard to top the masterpiece that was Max Holloway vs Calvin Kattar on last week’s UFC, but the four lightweights tried their hardest. In fact, both Poirier and Chandler made history. Poirier became the first fighter to knock out McGregor in MMA, and Chandler became the first to TKO Dan Hooker with punches to the head. The fights themselves weren’t very long and are worth the viewing if you can find them floating online. 

In the main event, Poirier even scored and picked up a win over McGregor. As soon as the fight started, McGregor pulled off a similar game plan from his Cerrone match-up and lead with his left straight. The attack didn’t seem to surprise Poirier, who returned fire with an inside low kick of his own. Poirier began to throw more kicks when he realized McGregor wasn’t checking them properly. Like the great Fedor Emilianenko before him, Poirier then lead with an overhand from his rear side and went straight for a takedown. This was used repeatedly to take down Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira back in the PRIDE FC days, and it’s good to see that it’s still an effective technique. Early on, McGregor’s ability to get back up to his feet remains high, and he was able to wall walk and frame Poirier and return to the clinch. The shoulder strikes that did wonders against Cerrone showed up again when both fighters utilized them to varying degrees of success. So far, there’s been more grappling in the McGregor-Poirier rematch than the first fight, and it’s clearly by design. Poirier is no longer the hothead brawler who swings hooks, he’ll use the clinch and time his takedowns to keep his opponents on edge. When it came to pure punching exchanges, McGregor had his moments. Sharp jabs and quick straights found their mark repeatedly, and Poirier got caught clean with several of them. Towards the end of the first round, it was clear that McGregor was the better fighter at range, more than doubling Poirier’s # of significant strikes. It’s easy to score the first round for the Irishman, but the end was just around the corner. 

In the second round, McGregor seemed to have slowed down a bit. Not so much because he was gassed, but the low and calf kicks hampered his movements. Poirier threw an outside low kick in the first 10 seconds of the 2nd round and it buckled the lead leg of McGregor, causing him to stumble a bit. That seemed to be the story of the fight, McGregor finding success with his hands while Poirier kept landing leg kicks. When Poirier did have success with punches, it was when he changed levels first to draw out McGregor’s reaction and then unloaded with punches. McGregor used to be able to read these movements better by keeping his lead hand out and on his opponent’s shoulder, feeling out the changes in their weight and pressure to sense when a takedown was coming or if they were getting ready to retreat. This time around, none of that was present. McGregor kept his hands closer to his jaw at all times, like a boxer anticipating punches to his head. This led him to being less prepared for attacks to his legs and chasing Poirier instead of pressuring him. When he did extend his hands to parry, it was with his rear hand. This can be done successfully, Israel Adesanya and Alexander Volkanovski constantly use their rear hands to parry and counter with jabs. The only difference is that they mix in low kicks of their own to keep their opponents off-balance and pre-occupied so they don’t see the jab coming. McGregor didn’t do much of that and got leg kicked by Poirier instead.

If anyone has any doubts about how effective the low and calf kicks are, hopefully this fight erases any. There’s no one perfect technique, but constantly kicking out the legs keeps opponents from setting up their base, and over time they’re unable to put any weight on their lead leg. McGregor was no longer the fluid striker that can glide out of danger, he was a sitting duck whenever Poirier charged in and reduced to swinging first instead of leading properly with a jab. This lack of mobility spelled the end for McGregor. Poirier faked a level change before landing with a right hand, a punch he was finding success with later in the fight. Poirier knew that McGregor couldn’t properly defend and poured on with combination punches. This overwhelmed McGregor and finished him against the fence. The emphatic finish was by far the best of his career.      

Poirier’s career has come full circle. After his finish, he told McGregor that, “Your coach was right. I can’t forget the first fight, but I can forgive myself and I have.” It’s easy for fighters to get caught up in emotions before and after they compete, but rarely do they learn from them. It’s evident that Poirier took his loss against McGregor and others and learned. He changed weight classes, added more to his offensive arsenal, and committed to improving his defensive flaws. That kind of improvement is what can make a dangerous fighter a champion, which Poirier has already done (even at an interim level). With Nurmagomedov no longer actively competing, it’s very possible that Poirier can emerge as the top dog in the division. There are fighters like Charles Oliveira or Rafael Dos Anjos that might give Poirier stylistic issues, but he stands a good chance against anyone in the top ten. Whoever they match Poirier up with in the future is in for a long night. Or a short one, depending on how long it takes for Poirier to beat them.

For McGregor, his title ambitions are a bit murkier. Granted, he lost to Poirier, but he’s now 1-2 in his last 3 fights, 1-4 if you count his boxing match against Floyd Mayweather Jr. The fact that this record comes in five years doesn’t bode well for his future. Fighters like Dominick Cruz insist that ring rust isn’t real, but it’s not entirely true. Inactivity affects every fighter differently, and everything must be considered for a successful comeback, including the opponent. While being away from competition, McGregor never had to deal with the new calf kick tactic of modern MMA. It’s not that it didn’t exist while he was competing, he never got matched up with someone that could exploit that weakness. This might be a good time for him to try and get back to his feet with a match-up against Nate Diaz. Both are coming off losses and are 1-1. It’s a story that writes itself since both have rabid followings and the match-up doesn’t tie up anyone in the top 5 of the division. It would be surprising if the UFC wasn’t already actively looking into this fight. McGregor claims that he wants another fight after he regroups, but who knows how much of his future is actually in fighting? For the most part, he’s accomplished everything he can in his career, short of a successful title defense. It might be hard for him to find motivation with plenty of money in the bank and a growing family to tend to. If anyone can walk away from the sport without a second thought about his finances, it’s McGregor.

In the co-main event, Michael Chandler made quick work of Dan Hooker. Despite being oversized by quite a bit, Chandler didn’t let it faze him. Chandler started by pressing forward and pressuring Hooker towards the fence. By squatting low, Chandler made himself an even smaller target. Even if Hooker is known for his leg kicks, it’s hard to throw anything effectively while on your heels moving backward. When Hooker did throw kicks, Chandler responded by retreating back or letting the kick land and moving his leg in the same direction, taking some of the sting off it. Chandler’s movements and sudden attacks are reminiscent of a prime Tyron Woodley, right down to rapid level changes and lead straights to the body. Being shorter fighters in a division where the average height is around 5’10” or so, the stockier athletes find success by dipping low and aiming their strikes towards an opponent’s midsection. This forces their opponents to lower themselves or bring their hands down to protect their body, leaving their heads open for attacks. This strategy paid off handsomely for Chandler. Constant attacks to the body combined with pressuring Hooker backward left him vulnerable to the lead left hook. The hook landed perfectly, dropping Hooker and setting up the TKO finish.   

Michael Chandler is on cloud 9, but let’s be careful here. We’ve seen former champions have great debuts in the UFC, only to fizzle out in following matches. Will Brooks had back to back wins over Michael Chandler and made his UFC debut shortly after, winning his UFC debut as well. Right after that, he lost three fights in a row and then got cut by the promotion. More recently, Ben Askren “won” his UFC debut against Robbie Lawler, only to lose spectacularly against Jorge Masvidal and Demian Maia. Expectations should be tempered for what he can accomplish in a crowded division, but nevertheless, he did have an impressive performance.

A common criticism of Chandler was that his competition in Bellator was never that stiff, and the fact that he got knocked out by an active featherweight didn’t seem like a good sign. Let’s not forget that at the lower weights, there are strong competitors in all major promotions. Eddie Alvarez, Justin Gaethje, Anthony Pettis, and Ben Henderson were all champions in other promotions before wearing UFC gold around their waist. If anything, this makes it seem feasible that current Bellator featherweight champion, Patrício Freire, could transition over to the UFC and give Alexander Volkanovski a run for his money. Chandler is now in a prime position to fight just one more top contender before competing for a title. Allegedly, Oliveira turned down the match-up with Chandler, citing not enough time to make the lightweight limit. He’s also hinted that he feels that he’s done enough to be next in line for a title, so he might not be willing to budge. After all, why risk a title shot for someone that’s 1-0 in the UFC? Justin Gaethje is coming off a loss, but he might consider a fight against Chandler as a way to jump back immediately into title contention with a victory. Gaethje also didn’t take too much damage from his last fight, so he might still be competition ready.

Hooker took a big gamble in fighting Chandler, and unfortunately, it didn’t pay off. Although he’s now lost two in a row, that doesn’t mean it’s the end. After a lengthy time off to recover, there’s another fighter in the weight class that could prove to be an interesting match-up. We all know that Tony Ferguson is always looking for a dance partner. Ferguson is also 0-2 in his last two fights, but he’s still a big name in the division and could prove to be a good measuring stick for where Hooker stands among his contemporaries. A loss for either fighter could send them tumbling out of the top ten, but at least we can get a bigger report of where everyone stands in the rankings.

Finally, we have some more clarity in the division. Charles Oliveira beat Tony Ferguson to establish himself as a clear title contender. However, he’s going to have to figure out how to stand out even further after this UFC card. Before UFC 257, Justin Gaethje was ranked at #1, Poirier at 2, Oliveira at 3, McGregor at 4, Ferguson at 5, and Hooker at 6. There’s bound to be some shakeup in the division now. Poirier just beat the #4 ranked lightweight and has a win over Gaethje that’s still pretty recent. Chandler’s quick finish over the #6 ranked Hooker catapults him to the top five, with McGregor and/or Ferguson getting bumped down. This could be the perfect time for the UFC to host a mini-tournament with some combination of Poirier, Gaethje, Oliveira, and Chandler, but that would be indulging in fantasy matchmaking.

It seems at this point, Nurmagomedov isn’t going to come out of retirement to defend his title. If that’s the case, the UFC should move forward in crowning another champion. If by some miracle Nurmagomedov does come back, he can get an immediate title shot since he never lost the belt. Nurmagomedov specifically gave up the title so he wouldn’t tie up the division, but the UFC seems to have done that anyway. That’s odd, considering they had no problem putting together a new title match between top contenders when Henry Cejudo retired and gave up his bantamweight title. It could be that Nurmagomedov is too much a draw for the UFC to simply let him walk away without a few more paydays, or maybe they don’t like the fact that he simply retired while still at the top. Either way, this is entirely the UFC’s fault. They waited so long until they gave him a title shot, and by the time he became champion he was already planning an exit from the sport. If the UFC keeps up their games with the lightweights, we might be stuck in this mess for quite some time. For the sake of all the fighters, let’s hope we see a new champion before 2022 starts.