Fight Study 88 – UFC 258 (transcript) (Patreon)

At UFC 258, which took place at the UFC APEX Arena in Las Vegas, one division saw a clear top dog emerge, while another got a bit messier. In the main event, Kamaru Usman defeated Gilbert Burns by TKO at 34 seconds in the third round. This was Usman’s third title defense, and with thirteen straight wins at 170 pounds, he now has surpassed former champion Georges St-Pierre for longest win streak in the welterweight division. That is elite company he’s in. With this win over Burns, he’s tied up with Tyron Woodley for total title defenses and has surpassed the number of title defenses that fan-favorite Robbie Lawler has. That’s no easy feat, and Usman did not have an easy path to the top.

The fight itself was an exciting affair, and it took place almost entirely on the feet. It was clear early on that both were training partners at one point in time. The fact that there was no real feeling out period and the ease of which Burns went right for the attack showed that he was comfortable exchanging strikes. This wasn’t the typical bum rush that you see when fighters are angry due to bad blood, this was a calculated decision by Burns. As expected, he put the pressure on Usman early and led with low kicks. This helped keep Usman from lunging forward and establishing his own attacks. After feinting with his hips and threatening level changes, Burns uncorked a right-hand lead that stumbled Usman. This got Burns to start swinging for the fences with hooks and uppercuts, hoping to end the fight early and take less damage. Perhaps a few more bursts could have sealed the deal. Maybe going for an ankle pick could have let him keep the advantage. Unfortunately for Burns, this was not to be. Usman soon timed a high kick and got Burns down to the floor. From there, he started kicking the legs of Burns and diving down with punches, something old school fight fans would recognize from the arsenal of Kazushi Sakuraba and Fedor Emilianenko, respectively. There weren’t any cartwheel passes, but these kicks from Usman bought him the time needed to shake off the cobwebs and regain his composure. Once Burns got back on the feet, he had some more moments of success when he timed a knee right as Usman was ducking in. This was discussed as a possible strategy in the fight preview since Usman does tend to dip his head down when he attempts to clinch, and Leon Edwards took advantage of it from time to time. Just because something works in spurts doesn’t mean you can build an entire game plan around it.

Usman did what he does best, clinch up and slow down the pace to his level. After throwing some short hooks to the ribs and landing his lead jab, Burns didn’t seem like the daunting task that he was when the fight first started. Don’t let the commentary team fool you into thinking that Usman’s work with Trevor Wittman alone is the reason he became more proficient with kicks, stance switches, and jabs. Usman has been doing these things since before he was champion. Look no further than his fights with Rafael dos Anjos and Demian Maia to see him use tools like throwing an ax kick to hide stance switches or leading with power jabs to keep the fight standing. You would think that commentators that get paid the big bucks would figure this out, but this is the UFC after all.

After a successful round 1 in the books for Burns, Usman knew he had to adjust. This is an expertise of his, as seen in both the Colby Covington and Jorge Masvidal fights. It’s not uncommon to see Usman get out-struck in the early rounds, only to figure out the proper changes needed and come back stronger. In Usman’s corner, head coach Trevor Wittman told him to get back to establishing his jab and striking first whenever he felt that Burns was loading up. He ended the break by stating, “You’re a champion because you jab. It’s cuz’ you jab, baby!” With a 76” reach, a 5” reach advantage over Burns’s 71”, Usman did just that.

In the second round, Usman has seen all of Burns’s striking strategy. He started to shift laterally, even mimicking the famous darting movements of former lightweight champion Eddie Alvarez and boxing world champion Miguel Cotto. Usman would start stepping towards his right, only to bounce off that foot and start moving left. Then, he would stop, feint moving back to his right, and launch a jab right to Burns’s face as he moved left again. This might seem simple, but executing it at a high level is extremely difficult. Cotto did this repeatedly against Antonio Margarito who had no answer for this, and neither did Burns. Usman was also reading Burns’s movements and timing his jabs whenever he stood still, getting ready to burst in with hooks. If he thought a kick was coming, Usman simply retreated or absorbed it so he could land a jab. Even the intercepting knee up the middle was getting timed by Usman, who used it as an opportunity to land some more jabs. Through all this, Usman kept stance switching and never let Burns get comfortable. Eventually, Burns was so preoccupied with the jab that he completely missed a right-hand lead by Usman that dropped him. By constantly switching his lead hand, Burns never got comfortable nor could he time proper counters. Usman was comfortable in both orthodox and southpaw, while Burns had to try and figure out which side the attacks would come from.

Now, it’s true that Usman threw jabs with power, much like a prime Larry Holmes. He did all the proper mechanics of a proper jab. He didn’t lead with his head past his knee, he had a strong base on his back foot, and he lowered his base slightly to add more pop in the punch. What isn’t discussed as much is how well he was able to time them whenever Burns was slightly off-base. Whether it was after he moved his head off-center or was on one foot throwing a kick, Burns didn’t have the proper base to absorb the strikes, and they ended up doing much more damage than he expected. It’s one thing to see a strike and cover-up, it’s another to be off-balance with no defense prepared.

By the time the third round started, it was clear that Burns was in a rough spot. The stance switches and jabs were giving Burns a hard time. It all came crashing down when Usman switched from orthodox to southpaw so his power hand was now in front. This is one of the reasons why fighters like Michael Bisping never had a strong rear hand but had powerful jabs, it’s because they led with their strong hand forward. What should be noted is that Usman timed the jab perfectly when Burns was feinting with his hips, again being off balance and unable to absorb the strikes properly. Some follow up ground and pound sealed the deal for Usman, and he walked away as still the undisputed welterweight champion. What’s less clear is his future training situation.

A big deal has been made about the teammate vs. teammate angle (although ex-teammates is the more appropriate term), and the situation isn’t any clearer after the fight. Usman famously left Sanford MMA in the spring of 2020, but there wasn’t the typical bad blood that you see in most camp switches. It seems that things are still professional between all parties, and it could lead to Usman living in Florida and doing day to day training at Sanford while doing his camps in Colorado with Trevor Wittman. It’s still not determined, neither is a future challenger.

With the win over Burns, Usman is in a place where he’s cleared out any meaningful competition. As it stands, he has wins over half of the top ten ranked welterweights, and none of them were particularly close matches. Stephen Thompson might present a unique striking challenge, and Michael Chiesa could also prove to be tricky on the ground. However, both are still a few fights away from a title shot, so unless he opts for rematches against Masvidal, Covington, or Leon Edwards, Usman might find himself waiting for a clear cut challenger to emerge.

For Burns, he wants to get back into title contention immediately. Getting finished by strikes warrants some time off, and he definitely should take a few months off to heal and recalibrate. He gave Usman the toughest round of his career, and with some adjustments, it’s not out of the question that he could be champion in the future. While an immediate rematch probably isn’t in the cards, a fight against someone in the top five could help his case. Stephen Thompson is currently without a dance partner, and his build is similar enough to Usman that he could be an appealing match-up.

In the co-main event, Alexa Grasso defeated Maycee Barber by unanimous decision. On the Southpaw discord channel, this fight was much-hyped. There still isn’t a great appreciation for women’s MMA, especially at flyweight where Valentina Shevchenko is champion. This not only reeks of sexism, but there’s a lot of great MMA that gets missed. Fortunately, Southpaw is here to fix all that (or at least try to). Heading into this fight, Barber had been out for over a year due to a knee injury suffered in her previous fight against Roxanne Modafferi.  Grasso on the other hand was trying to break through her predicament of winning a fight and then losing one right after. Grasso’s last fight was a win over Ji Yeon Kim and if the pattern held, it looked as if Barber would be getting her hand raised.

As the fight started, Barber came out with a lot of energy. Channeling the same fighting style as Michelle Waterson, she kept pumping out her jab, shifting her shoulders, and throwing out the front kicks despite Grasso being at least 4 feet away. Grasso didn’t mind staying patient on the outside and landing with kicks whenever Barber closed the distance. Soon, both fighters found themselves in the clinch where Barber had the slight power advantage. Barber landed some good knees, but Grasso returned the favor. After Grasso found some space, she unloaded with a perfect 1-2 that caught Barber clean. No matter how often Barber pumped out her lead hand or muscled her way into the clinch, it was clear that there were some technical deficiencies. Barber had success again with her elbows, but she was close enough for Grasso to counter with straight punches and hooks of her own.

By staying so far on the outside, Grasso was able to see most of the attacks and either glide out the way or move her head slightly to avoid the attack entirely. When Barber did want to attack with a real strike, like her rear right hand, she paused and loaded up first, giving Grasso a chance to strike preemptively. This is the same problem that Darren Till had against Tyron Woodley. He feinted and waited and waited, and by the time he worked up the nerve to commit to an attack, Woodley had already started throwing his right hand. Grasso used the same principle to maximum effect. Barber tied up to regain her composure, but she didn’t find much solace there. On the break, Barber might find success with an elbow or even land an overhand. The problem was that Grasso returned fire immediately. Even when Grasso got her kick timed and was grounded, she immediately used upkicks to set up an armbar, transitioning nicely to top control before ending the round by taking Barber’s back.

Round 3 was a much better round for Barber, as she was able to land a trip takedown and unloaded with some strikes against the fence. The problem was that this came too late in the fight, and Grasso still had enough space and time to clinch up and recover. Grasso might be the one that’s moving up from strawweight, but the strength difference wasn’t too noticeable. Barber tried her best to swing for the fences, but it wasn’t enough. All three judges scored the fight 29-28 in Grasso’s favor. A look at the numbers backs up the verdict. Out of 165 total strikes thrown, Barber landed 50. Of those 50, 40 were significant strikes. That’s a lot of power punches. In contrast, Grasso threw 162 total strikes, and landed 95 of those. Her significant strike count? 38, just two less than Barber.

Grasso’s striking has always been her strong suit, but it was interesting to see how far along her grappling has come. It was a popular belief for a while that Grasso can be stymied on the ground if she starts throwing combination strikes. Barber found no refuge with her takedowns, only managing to sneak in a few strikes before getting back to her feet. With a two-fight win streak at hand, Grasso should find herself with a small bump up in the rankings. It’s too early to tell if she’s ready for anyone in the top ten, so someone like Antonina Shevchenko could be a stiff test.

For Barber, this puts her at 0-2 in her last two fights and does raise the question of how to handle her career from here on out. She’s clearly talented but the holes in her game are becoming more pronounced. It’s not as if they sprung up overnight. Against Gillian Robertson, she landed some decent jabs and straights, but her habit of simply moving her head off-line to avoid strikes got her clipped a few times. There were times when Robertson threw kicks and Barber reached down to try and grab her leg, only to come up short. Barber did this again when Grasso threw kicks, but Grasso followed up with punches right after, making Barber pay for that rookie mistake. In her match-up against Roxanne Modafferi, straight punches and feints were enough to get Barber to swing and get blasted down the center. Straight punches still seem to be a problem for Barber, and it’s something she’s going to have to find an answer for.

Two losses in a row aren’t the end of the world, but Barber and her coaches are going to have to address her shortcomings if she’s going to make a serious run for the title. She shouldn’t be dropped from the rankings just yet, but it’s going to be important to rebuild her confidence. She can’t write off this loss to an injury like her last fight, she’ll have to make a serious commitment to getting better. Both Barber and Grasso have long ways to go before getting a chance to fight for the title, and there isn’t a clear path for either of them.

UFC 258 was a decent follow up to their last PPV offering, especially when you consider all the action on the undercard. The next PPV event is a champion vs champion card where Israel Adesanya moves up to light heavyweight to face the current champion, Jan Błachowicz.