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In early 2018, Stipe Miocic was sitting on top of the heavyweight throne. He had beaten a who’s who of heavyweights, getting close to the conversation of greatest of all time in the division. Despite being on a roll, Miocic found himself as the underdog against the challenger, Francis Ngannou. At the time, none of Ngannou’s UFC fights had gone to a decision, with his latest three wins coming by knockout in under two minutes each. Despite the hype, the fight was a dominant victory for Miocic. Fast forward to 2021, and things are the same. Miocic is coming off a trilogy against Daniel Cormier in which he won two out of three, cementing himself again as the best UFC heavyweight (possibly of all time). Ngannou is again on a hot streak, with four victories all coming in under 3 minutes COMBINED. 40 UFC pay-per-views later, they find themselves in a rematch with similar circumstances. Even though they’ve both had multiple fights since their first match-up, similar questions remain. Can Miocic’s chin hold up against a blitz from Ngannou? How will Ngannou’s gas tank fare in the 4th and 5th rounds? Have the title fights and training camps damaged Miocic beyond repair? Has Ngannou’s takedown defense improved enough to keep him standing? How much of Miocic’s vision is still intact? These questions will all be answered in a few days, but Miocic’s most recent fights against Cormier and his victory over Ngannou could hold some answers.

Despite his recent successes (and already holding a win over Ngannou), Miocic enters the UFC 260 main event as a betting underdog. That’s a shame because his performance against Cormier shows that he is a fighter that can learn from his mistakes. Against his better judgment, Miocic engaged in prolonged hand-fighting with Cormier the first time around (and large chunks of the rematch). This neutralized Miocic's boxing and Cormier was able to land his jabs and straights. This was a departure from his usual feint-heavy style. Miocic can usually get opponents to react because many of his jabs come from the elbow, hiding its trajectory and making it difficult to see if it’s a real strike or just an arm flick. Shoulder and hip feints hide his real strikes and it’s more than enough against most opponents. Against Mark Hunt, Miocic was able to feint and cause hesitation before changing levels. This led to Hunt keeping his lead hand low to defend against single and double leg takedowns, only to eat jabs and straights instead.

Much of that wasn’t present in the first fight against Cormier. When Miocic finished off his combinations with the right straight, he was left vulnerable to overhands and jabs. Miocic seemed content hand-fighting and only landed the occasional straights and hooks around Cormier's arms. In the second fight, Miocic started finishing off his punches with a left hook to the body (albeit in the fourth round). Left body kicks, low kicks, hooks, and uppercuts to the midsection should've been something Miocic did from the get-go, but better late than never. In their third fight, Miocic opted not to engage in hand fighting with Cormier. Instead, he would slide back and enter the striking range with kicks to the lead leg and jabs to the body.

This was evident in the statistics. In the first fight, Miocic threw 62% of strikes to the head, 25% to the body, and 12% to the legs. In the rematch, Miocic threw 69% of strikes to the head, 21% to the body, and only 8% to the legs. In the final match-up, Miocic threw 58% to the head, 26% to the body, and 14% to the legs. I know that’s a lot of numbers to remember, but the point is that Miocic focused less on headhunting and was better about dispersing attacks evenly throughout instead of exclusively aiming for one area.

It was also good to see Miocic move laterally to get Cormier to come towards him. Instead of chasing Cormier with 1-2’s, Miocic waited until Cormier pressed forward to set up his punches. This helped Miocic dictate the pace as well as add more impact to his strikes since Cormier is the one coming in. Miocic used a similar set up to dismantle Roy Nelson when they met, and it’s a key part of how he was able to land 137 significant strikes in that fight.

Cormier had the wrestling advantage, but Miocic was able to nullify much of the takedown attempts by improving his position in the clinch. This was a massive upgrade from the first two matches. In those fights, Cormier threw his arm over Miocic's shoulder and grabbed the back of his neck. When Miocic lowered his head to escape the clinch, Cormier would throw a right uppercut as a parting gift. Cormier's entire striking system is built off of utilizing his wrestling game with collar ties and clinches baked in. Even Jon Jones had trouble against Cormier early on in the clinch.

In the third fight, Miocic took a page out of the book of Max Holloway and made sure to secure a right underhook and either control the wrist or bicep right away. This didn’t create any exciting moments, but it allowed Miocic to run out the clock while denying Cormier the chance to clasp his hands together for a takedown or break free to throw uppercuts. At times, Miocic would frame Cormier’s head instead of bicep or wrist control, pushing his weight down on Cormier and forcing him to carry all 240 pounds on his neck. This had the serendipitous side effect of tiring Cormier further.

Speaking of tiring Cormier, Miocic made it a point to target his body, specifically the midsection. Cormier stayed vigilant of any possible hooks thrown from Miocic’s lead hand. He kept his elbows close by to tuck them in if Miocic’s left hooks started flying. To adjust for this defensive measure, Miocic would move in one direction, feinting with a hook, only to land jabs and right-hand leads to Cormier’s body. Cormier was caught off-guard several times and seemed to have trouble timing Miocic’s attacks. Compounding matters, Miocic threw more leg kicks. This disrupted Cormier’s balance and kept him from planting his feet to throw power strikes. Out of the 17 kicks that Miocic threw, he landed 17 of them. That’s also the highest number of kicks he’s ever thrown in a single fight.

In trilogies where athletes are so evenly matched, it usually comes down to whoever can make the most adjustments and stay consistent with their strategy. Miocic proved to be the superior fighter in his series against Cormier, a future Hall of Famer in his own right. The last fight, in particular, is proof that he’s leagues above other contenders. However, it wasn’t the masterclass that his match-up against Francis Ngannou was.

Ngannou is a terrifying opponent that can end fights in under 30 seconds. He’s not just crushing tomato cans, he’s beating former world champions. He already forced one into retirement and kicked off a losing streak for another (Cain Velasquez and Junior dos Santos, respectively).

Knowing what kind of danger he possessed, Miocic still stood his ground and exchanged punches with Ngannou, but on his terms. When Ngannou swung with hooks, Miocic dipped under and grounded Ngannou. Part of the reason Miocic was able to take Ngannou down so easily was his ability to sense when Ngannou was feinting and when he was throwing with bad intentions. Ngannou’s jabs came from moving his body forward and throwing out the lead hand. It’s technically correct, but it’s easy to detect by looking at the feet. When Ngannou was trying to draw out Miocic with feints, he would simply flick out his wrist. This presented no danger for Miocic, who timed what he correctly assumed was the follow-up right hand. Miocic would either throw a counter right hand of his own or shoot in for a takedown right when Ngannou’s hips were wide open as he swung.

This didn’t mean that Miocic was in the clear. He still ate some uppercuts when Ngannou sensed that a takedown was coming, and his face showed signs of damage even though he only absorbed 17 strikes to the face. That number is important, considering that Ngannou threw 106 strikes. Most of them landed on Miocic’s shoulders, forearms, or just plain missed.

Remember that stat of how Miocic’s third fight against Cormier resulted in the highest number of leg kicks he’s ever thrown? Miocic’s fight against Ngannou is the runner-up, with Miocic landing 16 leg kicks. Any time Ngannou covered up expecting punches or a takedown, he ate a low kick and was forced to readjust. During this period, Miocic would circle out, making Ngannou chase him and waste energy.

Put it this way – Ngannou has absorbed 137 significant strikes across a dozen UFC fights. 70 of them were landed by Miocic in one title match. That means Miocic is responsible for over half of all significant strikes that have landed on Ngannou. Can he repeat this performance the second time around?

As posited earlier, it’s hard to say how this fight will unfold, since many of the same variables exist the second time around. It’s almost as if the first match-up never happened, so perhaps some of the same game plans can work in a rematch. Miocic shouldn’t get too comfortable. Curtis Blaydes thought he had Ngannou figured out in the rematch, only to lose even quicker the second time.

For Miocic, he should do his best to repeat many of the same strategies that worked the first time around. By feinting and jabbing early, Miocic can diffuse the hair-trigger on Ngannou’s counter punches. Ngannou hits harder than a car (allegedly), but it won’t mean much if he’s swinging at air. This will tire Ngannou out and leave him vulnerable to counters. Every missed strike by Ngannou is a chance for Miocic to punt out his lead leg or throw a right straight. Miocic’s ability to draw Cormier’s hands back to his ribcage only to attack down the center is a positive sign that he can get even the best to hesitate and make mistakes. When he’s moving and feinting well, Miocic can trade with anyone in the division. His ability to throw convincing feints allows him to slip in hard strikes and move out of danger (or at least defend himself properly).

Once he gets his striking game going, the wrestling should follow suit. There’s a good chance that Ngannou has been diligently working his takedown defense, but it’s hard to stay upright when you’re tricked into getting off balance. Even feinting with his hips to get Ngannou to raise his legs can set up an easy single-leg takedown for Miocic. He did this several times throughout the first fight, and once he got Ngannou down, it was tough for him to get back up.

For Ngannou, his best bet could be emulating the things that Cormier did well while adding in some flair. Cormier had success whenever he got Miocic to come towards him, and that’s going to be key. Miocic was the one that drew out the reactions from Ngannou the first time around, but this time Ngannou should focus on moving back and getting Miocic to be the aggressor. This is the same strategy that Wanderlei Silva used against Cung Le to draw him forward, only to blitz down the middle with hooks when Le took the bait. Ngannou has more power in his hands than Cormier and could flatline Miocic if he doesn’t stay cautious. Miocic has been dropped by the likes of Overeem, Struve, and Cormier, so there’s plenty of reason to believe that Ngannou can do the same.

Miocic has committed to throwing the left hook after his right straight, cleaning up some of his bad habits. This could be exploited by clinching up right before the hook lands, forcing Miocic to break off. It’s during this brief moment that Ngannou can time an uppercut or a hook, much like how Cormier did. Speaking of uppercuts, Ngannou should focus on throwing these to the body instead of the head. Miocic can move his head off-center and try to cover up when punches are thrown up top, but his midsection remains vulnerable. After absorbing a few strikes to the midsection, there’s a chance he lowers his arms to protect his body only to leave his head open. Ngannou can also use one of Miocic’s best weapons against him – the low kick. Cormier timed many of Miocic’s jabs and threw kicks to the leg, disrupting his balance and dissuading one of the best jabbers in the heavyweight division to stop what he was doing.

UFC 260 could be the title fight that cements Miocic as the greatest heavyweight in UFC history. Not only will he have wins over four UFC heavyweight champions, but he’ll also hold wins over two different K-1 champions. On the flipside, Ngannou could shut Miocic’s lights off quickly, setting up another trilogy in the heavyweight division. No matter who comes out on top, we will be witnessing fight history in the making.