Can Cruz Beat Vera? (Patreon)

By Sam

We have a UFC bantamweight fight between Marlon Vera and Dominic Cruz, and the question isn't: who's going to win? The question is: can Cruz beat Vera?

Vera is the heavy favorite, he's the younger fighter by seven years, and he has the longer reach, especially with his legs. Though they can both fight from both sides, Vera offers more versatility when it comes offense. Cruz is the better defensive fighter, but Vera is more durable. Vera also hits harder. Cruz only has one way to win, which is by decision. In a five-round fight, this becomes more difficult, not because Cruz will gas out but because he will slow down. The other challenge for Cruz will be avoiding damage for five rounds. But Cruz's one path to victory is also a very realistic one. In nearly all his fights, his opponents have had more ways to win, but Cruz's one path to victory was still better than all their various methods combined. Suffice it to say, Cruz is very good at winning by decision.

You could compare Rob Font to Dominick Cruz and figure this fight will go similarly, but you have to price in that Font missed weight. Missing weight not only means not being at your best, but it also means you're coming in out of shape. It means problems during camp. If Font didn't get dropped on numerous occasions, he was on his way to a decision victory. But that didn't happen because Vera began to find his timing, and secondly, because Font put himself in harm's way by looking for big shots. Will Cruz do that? Prime Cruz wouldn't. But he has been doing that lately when he's too slow or too tired to skip out of range. But is Cruz as slow as out-of-shape Font? Will Cruz stalk like Font did, or will he make Vera chase him?

As far as style match-ups, this is probably one of the more favorable match-ups for Cruz, especially in a big cage. It would favor Cruz even more if it were a three-round fight.

The x-factor is that though Cruz is the older fighter, there's more recent footage of Vera than Cruz. I think Cruz will plan accordingly, anticipating kicks and knees to the head. Vera is also opportunistic more than he is a planner. Vera has won decisions, but in waiting for the right shot, he's also lost decisions. Just as Vera is strong where Cruz is weak, the opposite is also true.

I like Cruz in this fight, but his penchant to old man brawl gives me pause. The other pause is Vera timing a Cruz lateral shift or slip. Also, can Cruz win without getting takedowns? Especially in five rounds? His takedowns aren't what they were. But there's also a case to make that this is the safest fight for Cruz to break back into the top five.