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/335/ AI & the End of the End of History (Patreon)

Published:
2023-04-25 06:00:02
Imported:
2026-06
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On history-ending technology.

[Patreon Exclusive]

The economist Tyler Cowen recently suggested that radical technological change today marks a turning point in history. Is he right, and how would we evaluate such a claim?

Should we be sceptical about these big claims, especially given all the Silicon Valley-driven hype around AI? Or is 'radical agnosticism' the right stance?

And what about calls to rein-in the development of artificial intelligence, especially when these calls come from Silicon Valley itself?Readings:

Existential risk, AI, and the inevitable turn in human history, Tyler Cowen, Marginal Revolution

Is this the end of “The End of History”?, Robert Stark

The call for an AI halt disguises the real problems with tech, Jason Walsh, Tech Central

/306/ AI Capitalism: Inhuman Power (unlocked Bungacast Reading Club episode)

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Comments

Christoph Iselin

I truly can appreciate the boldness to describes Cowens Blog as a "particularkind of a particular time of internet culture" on a podcast in 2023.

Richard R

"Yeah, but my job involves some degree of creativity," seems like the defense that everyone in the knowledge/clerical/information economy will use to convince themselves that AI is not a serious problem for their own livelihoods. This is akin to a broad structure of inquiry the Bunga Boys use very often: "Is it really new? Does it actually break with the era's prevailing trends? Well, no, and for all these reasons." Meanwhile, significant social changes are happening at a pace that doesn't and can't possibly fit the mold of radical break. There is a significant social consequence, for example, to the growing practical uselessness of libraries. It continues privatization trends that have been around for over a century of course. But, just to name a personal example, in 2012, the 12-story NYU library went from having anti-suicide fences from just the top few floors, to every floor above the first. The library is used only as a space to use the computer and the internet, and the absence of minor social interactions, such as those you might have with a librarian, or with a fellow student hanging out in the same section, has clinically significant effects on people's lives.

Graham

It's tempting to think of tech as a discrete agency in itself - 'mobile phones have...' etc. Perhaps it is more useful to think of them as social practice and, for Marxists, manifestations of the capital-labour relation. Any tech is an assemblage of commodities and so its realisation is an outcome of labour in remarkably complex recombinations. Further, tech is a social disposition of labour. Biotech remakes the nature of farm work for smallholders and enhances the power of agricorps. Smart devices heavily push people to provide content for free to rentier social media platforms and perform labour for free to service providers. Fintech deploys legal force and surveillance to generate new structures of indebtedness upon labour. BEWARE THE FETISH!!!!!

Blake

You guys need to get Morozov on the pod.

Steve Bowbrick

The reason you can tell that the six-month moratorium is bullshit is, to state the obvious, the proposed duration. It seems likely that the kind of pause that might actually contribute to preventing the annihilation of humanity ought to be maybe 600 years, or 60 years. At least six years (or maybe 'until the time travellers arrive'). But this moratorium is exactly two reporting periods long. Anything longer than that would have too great an impact on the annual numbers for the businesses involved. It’s a kind of comedy appeal. Not “load every trace of AI tech into a SpaceX rocket and fire it into the sun” but “hold on a minute while we get our shit together”

Steve Bowbrick

Quick note on Alex’s idea that we’ll have a very complete record of life in 2023 in 50 years. I don’t think we can take this for granted. We’re relying for these rich, accessible permanent archives on corporations who’ve already shown they have no commercial interest in preserving them. The social media companies, in particular, explicitly impede archiving efforts. The content is by definition fugitive and it’s stored on media with 10-30 years of useful life - after which it must be renewed. If there’s anything left at all in 2073 I’ll be surprised. Have you tried searching for a 2010 blog post lately?