Betting on China's Market

"Welcome back to Family Feud. I'm Steve Harvey, and tonight we've got the Zetars from New Mexico against the Veros from Nevada. We asked a hundred people each question. The most popular answers are on the board, and the first family to three hundred points wins."

In Beverly Hills, Ethan watched Lionheart's latest episode with Nicole, Charlize, Gal, Mary-Kate, and Ashley. The show had become one of the service's most dependable draws. Alone appealed to viewers who liked watching people test themselves against the wilderness; Family Feud gave everyone something to argue about from the couch. Clips of Harvey's reactions were traveling nearly as fast as the episodes themselves.

Tonight's first question made Ashley raise an eyebrow. Harvey looked from one contestant to the other. "Name somewhere people get intimate besides a bed."

The woman in red hit her buzzer. "A car."

Thirty-three of the hundred respondents agreed. It was the top answer.

"That is not what I'd call an all-ages question," Ashley said.

"If you insist on a strict distinction, it would be fourteen and up," Ethan said with a chuckle. "But Lionheart is the first online streaming platform. Standards take time to establish."

"Online streaming is still the Wild West."

"And don't forget, MGM is a member of the MPAA. Add those other four studios, and I'm both a player and the referee. I can call black white and white black."

Onscreen, Harvey moved along the Zetar line. Their father called out a sofa, a bench, a stool, and a chair in one breath.

"You've given this some thought," Harvey said.

The man pointed proudly to the contestants beside him: his son, daughter-in-law, and daughter. Then he realized how his answer might sound in that company and began to explain himself. Harvey cut him off before he could make matters worse. The audience roared.

Jill, the expectant daughter, chose the bathroom. She said that was where her baby had been conceived, to another burst of laughter. Her brother chose the kitchen; Harvey stopped him before he could describe the details, but eleven people had given the same answer. The daughter-in-law answered "the floor" without waiting for a prompt. Eight respondents agreed.

Linda, the woman in red, found the last answer by going outdoors: a blanket on the lawn, a park bench, somewhere in the woods. The Zetars had cleared the board without a miss. Harvey gave them an extravagant introduction as the most formidable family the show had seen.

Ethan laughed hard enough to clap. Nicole pinched his side.

"What?"

"You're enjoying those answers a little too much."

"I'm enjoying Harvey trying to keep a straight face."

"Of course you are."

The teasing continued until the third round began. The Zetars led 281 to 95, but the final round carried triple points. One good answer could turn the game.

Harvey read the next card and stopped. "I had nothing to do with this question. If the boss is watching, please don't fire me. We asked a hundred women: if Ethan Hawthorne showed up at your door, what would you wear to greet him?"

An Oscar photograph of Ethan filled the screen. He sank a little lower into the couch. The question might once have needed an introduction, but not now. Facebook, YouTube, Lionheart, MGM, Marvel, Hasbro, Twin Star, and American Art Records had made his name difficult to avoid. He was young, wealthy, and on Forbes lists so often that even people who had never bought a movie ticket recognized him.

One contestant chose her best lingerie. Twenty-six women had given the same answer, making it number two on the board. Cheryl, her opponent, said she would wear nothing at all.

Harvey stared at her. "Is that your guess about the survey, or your personal plan?"

"Both."

The studio audience erupted. Ethan grinned before he caught Nicole looking at him.

"Don't look so pleased with yourself," she said.

"It's a survey. I didn't ask the question."

Mary-Kate folded her arms. "That isn't the reassurance you think it is."

"I haven't been chasing anyone," he said. "I've barely had time to sleep."

"You always find time to make trouble," Ashley replied.

The argument had the familiar rhythm of a joke among adults who knew one another too well. Ethan raised both hands in surrender. The show continued without needing any help from him.

* * *

A Boeing jet descended toward Beijing. After the long flight, Ethan and Judy made their way through the terminal and found Chen Xing waving beyond the arrivals doors. He had been waiting only half an hour and wanted to know whether they would rather sleep before the evening's plans.

"The usual hotel first," Ethan said. "Does Han know we're here?"

"He does. He's arranged dinner with the others tonight."

On the drive into the city, Judy watched towers and construction cranes slide past the windows. She had expected a very different view.

"Not what the book led you to expect?" Ethan asked.

"I read Gordon Chang. He predicted the banks' bad loans would bring the economy down within a few years. Is Beijing simply an exception?"

Chang's The Coming Collapse of China had circulated widely in the United States after its 2001 publication. Judy and Ethan had both studied finance at UCLA, so they knew the argument. What she was seeing did not resemble its conclusion.

"One city can't answer everything," Ethan said. "But I've put real money into factories here because I expect growth, not collapse."

"How much growth?"

"Enough that China could pass Japan and Germany and become the world's second-largest economy within a decade. Passing the US is a different question."

"You're certain."

"I'm making decisions with that forecast in mind. You can judge me by the results."

Judy considered the streets again. "Then maybe we should move in faster. Factories take years to pay back."

"What did you have in mind?"

"The markets. If your forecast is right, there has to be a way to invest in the companies growing with it."