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Masterclass 7: How Dice Work (Patreon)

Published:
2020-05-02 12:00:02
Imported:
2026-06
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Videos

Content

A discussion of linear vs bell curve probabilities and their impact on RPGs.

Files

Previews only

Masterclass 7: Dice & How to Use Them

This video is about Masterclass 7: Dice & How to Use Them

Comments

Austin Harleson

Absolutely fantastic video. Thank you! This is extremely helpful for DMs running homebrew or 5E-adjacent systems, and one of those crunchy subjects for a DM about the balancing act of keeping the game random, but somewhat fair. This definitely goes in my top 5 from you along with your video on balancing encounters (I think it’s the one with Man-Skinner from Caves of Carnage).

MSN2012

Questing Beast is reading through the 1e DMG. Part 1, about 32 minutes in has the discussion of probability and dice.

Jay

I am the strange guy who enjoys studying Statistics and Probability. What an excellent explanation of probability in dice mechanics. I agree with practically everything including the keep it simple rule. Most of my disagreements are minor and would site problems I have with the linear D20 and how assigning meaning such as Critical Success or Failure are arbitrary as there is no variation in probability between any number rolled on the die. Results within a range on this die should by all accounts be binary (success/failure). Furthermore, assume the example of a trained archer with no modifiers attempt to hit a static target (TN of 11) at 20 yards being completely random on D20 and being just as likely to shoot a passerby as hit the target. Think random chaos, even with 50% of the faces on the die resulting in success you could very easily roll 20 times and score nothing more than a range between 1- 8 with every arrow. Imagine a TRAINED Archer missing every time. Bell curves narrow the margins and create probability variation in all possible results. These variations give results more meaning than just pass fail. A result of 12 on 2D6 is difficult (2.78% Chance of Success) and Critical Success well achieved. On the D20 a player is just as likely to roll an 8 as roll a 20 so why not assign 8 as the number for Critical Success. Never-the-less, I also support to Occam’s Razor and prefer the simplest method in my games. It seems more realism means more steps and more steps mean less story. Less story means less fun. I have been battling realism vs expedience for years. Your method is still the one I have been using and it works perfectly without getting into the weeds. Also enjoyed the video “Stop Rolling So Much”. RECOMMENDATION – To see graphics of variation in any kind of dice mechanics go to Anydice.com example is 3D6 and probability https://anydice.com/ Keep up the great work Professor.

MSN2012

PDM, I am curious how you handle target numbers. You’ve implemented room targets a la ICRPG. Do you use modifiers for players beyond stats, like proficiency bonuses? Or do your target numbers reflect the overall capabilities of your PCs? Before moving to room targets, did you assign targets that included modifiers or were the players still adjusting their roles?

Jay
>>36252865

I hope I’m clear when I state that really don't pay Patreon for the opinions of random strangers. I'm only interested in communicating with PDM, the proprietor. Although the point was not intended for you to get you seemed to have missed it regardless. I could have just as easily used Throwing Axes, Firearms, or Rocks and the numbers that I used were for simplicity sake. Yet you saw the word archery and couldn’t resist to talk about yourself could you. Your title of Archery Instructor is of no value to me just as my years in Spec Ops have no relevance in these discussions. I’m not here for conversation or making friends. I have enough of those. I’m here to communicate directly from the man himself and if that were possible without any other input, I would do just that. So thank you for your expert opinion in archery yet it is not required or desired.

Newton

PDM touched on the subject of player's "sense of achievement". Dice systems where the chance of success is about 50%-50% means lots of player turns resulting in 'no effect/miss'. Players can wait 5-10 minutes for their turn to come around, only to 'miss', is very disheartening.

Number one guy

I made a system when I was fifteen and the combat was by far the strangest part of it. You'd roll a D20, and add Strength before Multiplying that by your Weapons Power (which rose in increments of one) to see how much Damage you did. Your target, if this was the first time getting hit during the good guys turn, also rolled a D20 to defend adding Dexterity and Multiplying the roll by their Armor Power. You would then subtract that many points from your damage, and thats the final damage the target would take. So new character with Bronze Weapons (Weapon Power 3) could almost never kill a Dragon with Dragonite Hide (Armor Power 10) You would do algebra every time you took an action! Very odd take let me tell you.

Graham Kane

This is really interesting stuff, especially for someone stat-illiterate like myself.

Ben Von

I hereby demand increasingly complex and Japanese-sounding names for expansions: Xanathar's Super God Mode Guide to Everythinger Everythingiest!

Ben Von
>>36330330

A while back the professor said to halve standard monster HP, and he's since changed that to lowering their armor class. Much more fun to keep hitting than missing at lower levels, and as the AC creeps up at HIGHER levels, the players have more options.

Graham Kane

I don't know if anybody agrees with me but I've noticed a trend in miniature wargaming and current D&D where character/unit/army abilities and bonuses are becoming more powerful and varied to the point where you can almost eliminate the effects of dice variance.

Sean Schraidt

Fairly new here. I see this and Masterclass 4. Where are the other 5?

Steven

Oh Man, My Players are not going to know what hit em when we can return to playing. They are all spoiled with their knowledge of 5E. We are going old school. Hack em and slash em.

Shadymutha

Nice video. I’d be interested in a video comparing roll-under vs roll-over when you get around to it.

Mathew Spurlock

If the lack of the d20 is the only problem your players had with dungeon world, I can totally think of a few ways you could hack it. you could do exactly what you said with 1-5/6-14/15-20 (or whatever proportions you want to use) and either roll 2d20 take the highest for dungeon world's +1 and 3d20 for +2 (lowest for minuses) OR you could do straight d20 with a +d4 (or d6) for +1s and +d6 (or d8) for +2s that way it's still possible to fail.

Daniel Defazio
>>36299139

Great question. It's in the Deathbringer rules: 5-9 easy/10-15 medium/ 16-20 difficult. No proficiency bonuses. You just add your expertise die (d4) if applicable to the situation. Ex: a rogue wants to climb a tower. It's covered with moss and it's drizzly out. I set the target number at 15. The rogue gets to add their DEX bonus and gets a d4 bonus because a rogue's Expertise includes climbing.

Graham Kane
>>36512383

Well from a wargaming point of view the focus is on maxing out damage potential by using the most effective combinations. This happened a while back with a miniatures game I played competatively (X Wing Miniatures Game by Fantasy Flight) and I have seen it over the years with Warhammer Fantasy and 40K. The emphasis is allows on the most efficient "combos", similar to CCG's like Magic: The Gathering which effectively remove dice variance. The constant release of new models and new abilities and the resulting power creep eventually causes the game to creak under its own weight eventually leading to the need for a new edition of the game to reset everything. It just seems to chime with the constant releases like Tasha's Cauldron. Granted, D&D is not strictly a competetive game but it seems to be moving in the same direction and we know the game has it's share of mi n maxers!