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Is Wizards of the Coast in Trouble? (Extended) (Patreon)

Published:
2022-10-27 02:10:40
Imported:
2026-06
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Videos

Content

Emergency upload! Ray Winninger is out as D&D Lead. Dan Rawson is in as the new Vice President of Dungeons & Dragons? Why? PDM provides analysis. May be released on YouTube Thursday. Maybe Tuesday. We dunno yet.

Files

Previews only

Has D&D Peaked?.mp4

Comments

Bagel-Man

As always, another great video! Keep up the great work PDM. Also the camera looks great!

MrGunn

RPGPundit was arguing wokism was the cause of slumping D&D sales, however, I did not think he made his case this time. I feel strongly that the biggest contributor to slumping sales: 'its the economy stupid'. Although you make some excellent points about the fad aspect of D&D. I predict the movie will be bad, but people will still see it. Whether it will drive D&D sales remains to be seen. The bigger scare for WotC/Hasboor is the 37% down trend in digital sales. Magic is still the card that built the house of WotC, and slowing sales on that platform is a big concern vis-a-vis their digital pivot. Ray Winninager is out either b/c Strixhaven and SpellJammer were terrible, he broke some HR rule, some personal issue, or the C-Suite did not think he was the guy to support the digital pivot. I suspect they lost confidence in his commitment / abilities to lead the digital pivot. You are absolutely correct subscriptions and micro-transactions are the future that WotC/Hasboor want to go in. It is the golden goose. As always very insightful news and analysis. PS Missed DB and his pithy take on all of this.

Daniel Defazio
>>94382223

No DB because I wanted to be sensitive to Mr. Winninger's situation.Nothing funny about losing a job. DB will return.

Joel A.

Solid analysis. Will be keeping an eye out to see which directions the company takes.

Jay

PDM, a brilliant analysis of the WoTC situation. I also agree with your predictions as well as your claim about the game being a fad among some in society. I remember playing D&D with my friends when it wasn’t cool. In fact, those who played were called all kinds of names. Contrary to some claims girls did play it back in the day. We had 3 in our group. However, I’m not really a fan of everything WoTC is up to with this One D&D. Subscription based games may keep the shareholders happy but is also an unnecessary drain on the customer. Subscriptions and Corporations claiming ownership of anything an individual puts on it’s operating system or cloud-based storage has even pushed me to consider learning Linux or finding another operating system outside of Windows for various reasons I won’t get into here. One D&D with its androgenous races take away what makes them unique and only leave an aesthetic quality to an avatar. I would agree with removing classes for a more skill-based game allowing for greater customization while still possible to assemble character professions or archetypes. One D&D may not appeal to those who don’t wish to learn a whole new virtual or monitor based RPG. I happen to be a bit of a luddite in some respects and doubt I will be playing the game online. I have Skyrim and other video games for that. Furthermore, I still remain loyal to independent creators over corporations. I’d suppose I’d rather play EZD6, Deathbringer, Cogent, and Savage Worlds (who are killing it in Kickstarters as of late). It’s nice to play games that are easy to home brew, customize characters, and get the rules out of the way quickly so the narrative story and go on and players can take their turns in a timely fashion. Anyway, really enjoyed the commentary. Keep up the great work.

Jay
>>94385756

Thanks. I attempted to respond to your post above but seem to be having some computer issues. I will try again later.

Lee Caddick

I think the digital route with DnD is inevitable, I haven't played an 'in-person' game for 20 years. My current groups have people from all over the globe - Finland, America, South Africa. If One DnD can still give us the feeling of it being 'our' game rather than theirs then I'm in - if not then I'll continue with my hash together on Tabletop Simulator and Discord.

W Nash

I think that publicizing One D&D as they work on it is a mistake. It's too early to commit to anything yet because it may be changed. My group hates "48 sub-classes" already. We're looking at moving to another system, or hacking 5e for ourselves. PDM has inspired us!

shawn rader

Sales dropping makes sense. When people are looking at what bills to pay and food. Entertainment always takes a big hit. What we are seeing is people adapting what they have already. Games such as Deathbringer ect. I feel will become the new norm.

Brian Leet

I suspect it is all about sales performance of recent products along with the usual mix of intra-office personalities and politics. Two consecutive flops along with others promising to do better. The need to errata a race in Spelljammer within weeks of release was particularly egregious. Whether or not you agree with the overall direction, that sequence of events shows a lack of care and oversight. It is of course also possible that there were significant differences of opinion behind the scenes on future direction. I do think D&D is dangerously drifting towards being too player driven. By that I mean that they are eying the large player market and catering to them rather than putting a core design aesthetic or DM ease in the foreground. The result is an explosion of options and flexibility and the everyone can be everything feeling. The challenge is that we’ve been here before. GURPs and other skills systems did this in many ways thirty years + ago. Over time these sorts of systems lose interest more quickly because when everyone is special no one is, and they get harder and harder for a dungeon master to run. I know the number one thing I want at this point is a way as DM to aggressively edit the rules set back down to what is okay in my world.

MrGunn
>>94382223

I respect your decision. Losing one's job is no laughing matter.

Ruben Benes

Great take as usual, but I feel like your camera has focused on your background instad of your face. Your face is a bit blurred to my eye at least

MrGunn
>>94401746

Excellent points all around; "Two consecutive flops..." "I do think D&D is dangerously drifting towards being too player driven" "Rather than putting a core design aesthetic or DM ease in the foreground." Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

MrGunn
>>94385756

I actually saw your response in my email feed. I think it ixnayed your post b/c it had URLs in it. YouTubes does that all the time, they don't want anyone linking to any content they don't control, sometimes they ixnay their own URLs. I will take a look at the videos you recommended.

Jay
>>94385756

Glad you got the response. I’m gonna try this one last time. My PC was acting up yesterday. So here goes. MrGunn, I agree with your speculation regarding the upcoming D&D movie and make some solid points considering the flop of SpellJammer and Strixhaven. I also believe you are correct that there are several factors at play here to explain some of the changes taking place within WoTC coupled with the staggering dive in sales. Never-the-less, as you stated, the economy remains a blaringly obvious one. Necessities should always take priority over entertainment if one has any sense. However, I stopped buying WoTC products a long time ago. So, I have little interest in the success of Hazboor. These videos made sense to me and pushed me away from Class and Level Based games like D&D. This is not to take anything away from those who enjoy Class or level-based games just give some rational as to why I no longer play them or care about what happens to WoTC. Afterall, It’s all just preference. Shadiversity “Why character Levels in RPGs are STUPID!” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x6UV2gXwFPw “Why character Classes in RPGs are STUPID!” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TFkZ67wnqy0 Seth Skorkowski “Class versus Skill-Based Games - Running RPGs” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_ikzFHpaPk

jnlsn family

I have been saying this would happen for nearly two years. Lockdown/Stranger Things/Critical Roll inertia is gone (accelerated by using D&D as a method to inject wokeness into the culture). People are finally sick of being lectured to by coastal elites in their products. I'm gonna smoke a nice cigar and watch as more heads roll.

Drago Russo

Thanks again as always. Changes are absolutely on the horizon. I will stick to the topics I know best and as someone who runs 5-6 sessions per week professionally, I will opine on the adventure books. Spelljammer is just too forced, disjointed, and bad. It is so bad, in my opinion, that it makes me look like a bad DM when I run it. At least that is how I feel after each session. My players said they are having fun, but I just don't know how or why, lol. The Rime of the Frostmaiden was expertly done. Since then it has not been good. Kobold Press, on the other hand, is putting out great adventures and books. Some of the iconic writers are finding work with them and it is really good. This is probably because WoTC is hiring distinct writers and focusing on diversity and fresh takes on things. They have found some really talented people with new ideas. But I think they should pair them up with some of the very long time writers who have always known how to put out a compelling story that is not about crossing out a list of "To Do" items, which is how I feel some of this content is. I am all about diversity, heck I moved out of the U.S. years ago and I have made my own very diverse little minions. So I would love for them to include diversity and inclusion as a support structure to the products and not the theme, while making engaging storylines the #1 priority. Write a compelling story and allow diverse writers and artists to contribute. But make dang sure that the story is a great one. I will soon have a chance to put my money where my mouth is as I am going to lead a project with all latino authors to "rewrite" Maztica but NOT focus on mesoamerican tropes, but allow latino authors to create a compelling continent to compete with Faerun in story that EVERYONE will want to play in as story will be the #1 priority. And this will all culminate in Mexico City in September 2023 during the D&D Mexico 2023 event that we will be running. PDM, you will be invited to run seminars, have a booth, whatever you want. Now I will go back to doing whatever I normally do. Take care fellow patrons.

Daniel Defazio
>>94407071

I can see that. I need a director. I seriously thought of reshooting it but it's not worth the agony. BUT I will be making sure I tap my face on the viewfinder to get the right focus in the future. I really appreciate constructive criticism. Keep it coming.

Jay
>>94385756

Yep! I've supported their last 3 or 4 kickstarters. They make great products.

baldrage
>>94401746

Concur with Brian's points as summarized by Mr Gunn. Consecutive flops, indeed. If Stranger Things is actually the big draw for new players, the products WOTC has been putting out bear absolutely *zero* resemblance to the D&D being played by the characters on that show. The last four or five books have featured neither dungeons nor dragons.

baldrage

Thank you for your insight, PDM. Appreciate the objective way you laid out facts and flagged the bits that were speculation on your part. One but of constructive criticism: I know why you are starting to put references to other DungeonCraft videos in the middle of episodes rather than the end, but it sometimes doesn't flow very well. I thought the transition in this episode was particularly jarring.

MrGunn
>>94385756

Firstly thank you for sharing, I learned something and was thinking about what was said. But ooooo... sorry Jay. I watched both Shadiversity's, still need to fully watch Seth's video. I did not agree at all with Shadiveristy's conclusions in either video. Firstly, they seemed focused mainly on computer gaming. Secondly, I felt he glossed over issues around game mechanics. We are taking about games, and his videos advocate injecting more realism into gaming. I used to prefer a simulationist type of RPG, however in my dotage I have pivoted, I now prefer games that emphasize verisimilitude over realism. In my opinion one cannot have a simulationist game without it becoming rules heavy. I did not agree with Shad that levels were stupid. As a game mechanic they are great and give players a sense of accomplishment, opening more options etc. Do levels matter, absolutely not, the good professor has already pointed out the illusion that are levels, however, players still like them. Now talking out of the other side of my mouth, ICRPG and EZD6 both great games, do not have levels. I also did not agree with Shad on his take on classes. I understood where he is coming from, that classes can feel limiting. I know PDM has discussed the Knave RPG and going classless with DeathBringer and OneD&D has certainly gone cuckcoo with at last count 41 sub-classes. However, I feel classes have advantages over a skill based system. I feel skill based systems are even more limited than classes as one cannot account for all possible skills, further the more modern the time period the complex and more specialized the skills become. Classes if treated correctly should allow a player a wide range of capabilities and skills that do not need to be enumerated. The class Network Engineer would know how to setup, configure, troubleshoot, and sabotage a computer network. By contrast a Software Engineer my have a basic understanding a computer networking, but could not setup or configure one. Imagine all the skills you would have to list for each class. Moreover, it might just be easier to list a class as Computer engineer and allow a wide range of skills. Rulings not Rules

MrGunn
>>94427895

I'm into freedom of speech and freedom of choice. I'm the kind if guy who wants to sit in a greasy spoon and think, "Gee, should I have the T-bone steak or the jumbo rack of barbecued ribs with the side order of gravy fries?" I want high cholesterol. I want to eat bacon, butter and buckets of cheese, okay? Edgar Friendly :D

MrGunn

Not sure you saw it, but Discourse Miniatures has a rant on this topic, interesting views expressed.

Chuck Thorin

Great points all. I will add a couple things. I was talking to the owner of the FLGS (pre-pandemic) and he noted back then that there were people buying D&D books who admitted that they didn't play any games, they just want to read the books. A personal prediction with One D&D, things will eventually break down into two hobbies. The traditional folks with dice at a table and OneD&D. And third, another place to watch for possible rumblings is DrivethruRPG and DM's Guild. I still predict that license will end. And remember, DrivethruRPG and Roll20 formed a joint venture shortly before the official announcement of the WOTC's VTT. (Hopefully, my memory is right on that one and this is the Internet. If I'm wrong someone will point it out.)

Daniel Defazio
>>94401746

Could be. I've been pondering the player vs GM power tug-of-war while reading John Peter's The Elusive Shift.

Daniel Defazio
>>94431837

Kobald is great. And not just because they hired me for Vault of Magic! Regrettably, I cannot travel in September because that's when school starts. But I hope D&D Mexico is every successful so I can attend when I retire (3 more years!).

MrGunn
>>94445315

Good point about DTRPG and Roll20 team up, I am very curious to see where that goes.

Jay
>>94385756

Thanks for replying. Again, the post was mainly to provide some insight as to why I prefer skill- based over level or class-based games. Not really trying to convert anyone and the videos don’t provide all my reasoning but touches on some of it. Shad’s videos are much older, and although he used some video game references, he also used TTRPGs. To be fair I was thinking the same thing the first time I watched in long ago. He could have done a better job clarifying but I understood the points he was trying to make. Regardless, both he and his brother Jazza did create Cogent RPG which is not rules heave but does provide just enough crunch without going overboard. If you ever want to see how the mechanics don’t interfere with the game, they have actual play on Tabletop Time Roleplay. Yet, like all RPG’s none of them are 100% perfect. I believe this is his 3rd iteration of Cogent RPG if I’m correct. Anyway, Seth Skorkowski does the best comparison with pros and cons for both types of games. I also want to be clear that I haven’t completely abandoned Class and level-based games. I just prefer the skill-based ones far more. I had the same views Seth Skorkowski expressed years before he made his video and play mostly games that coincide with that point of view. Savage Worlds, Traveler, Call of Cthulhu area all skill-based games with out pigeonholing players into cookie cutter classes or levels while allowing character progression in skills trained in or improved through actual use. I doubt the many players who regularly run these games would describe them as over-the top rules heavy simulations games but that may just be a matter of perspective. To be honest, I don’t care rules heavy games either. They slow things down too much. However, these are the type of games that can easily be tailored to fit any type character class without the restrictions or even archetypes and characters from literature is desired without the need for multiclassing. Savage Worlds does this the best. BTW, Scotty mentioned some EZD6 stuff in the works for Character progression. From the chit chat on discord, it doesn’t seem like he will be using levels, but I suppose that remains to be seen. Make no mistake, I absolutely respect and understand why you may feel classes have an advantage over skills and there is no problem with that. It’s just not my cup of tea. When it comes to skills, I use the same philosophy you mentioned of “Rulings not Rules”. For some games, there is no need to catalogue in detail all the skills a player could think of a character needing. Simply decide if it is reasonable for that character to have such a skill. Could base it on geographical location, culture, or any number of factors. Some mundane skills likely don’t require much consideration. A person in a farming community may likely know more about skills in that community. Some of the games previously mentioned cover skills a bit more broadly and leave the nuance up to the GM. With all that being stated. I would still recommend Seth Skorkowski’s videos in general. The one I referenced is also fair to both positions. So, you might want to finish seeing it even if it’s just to hear about the advantages and disadvantages of both class-based & skill-based games. As for the rest. It’s all about preference. Thanks again. I really do appreciate your feedback.

Ruben Benes
>>94407071

Completely understandable! Love your content, so I want it to be as good as possible! :)

Graham Kane
>>94382223

I fully agree that "wokism" is not the cause of slumping sales. Sales were always going to slump post-Covid, many who took up the game during lockdown can now spend their money on other activities. People were a captive audience for game companies. Games Workshop are also suffering a slump after soaring sales during Covid and are pivoting their approach in a way that customers are disagreeing with.

MrGunn
>>94382223

Graham, great points! I appreciate you sharing your thoughts.

MrGunn
>>94385756

Jay thanks for again sharing your insights. I very much enjoy our discussions and learning about your perspective and gaming philosophy's. You definitely give me things to think about. I totally agree with you, EZD6 is really fantastic; I am really looking forward to the upcoming expansion. DM Scotty is Fabo! I got around to watching Seth's video; "Anyway, Seth Skorkowski does the best comparison with pros and cons for both types of games." I agree, Shad was a bit preachy/ranty, Seth's points were pitched much better and I feel he had better arguments. Eclipse phase has 21 base skills ignoring Know Skills and Active Skill duplicates, Call of Cthulhu 7e has about 50 base skills, Cyberpunk Red has 86 Skills, HarnMaster has over 100, GURPS has a stoopid 200+ skills. Can you see my issue? Then there is the issue of how granular you need to get: Scientist, Scientist: Life Sciences, Scientist: Life Sciences - Virologist, Scientist: Life Sciences - Virologist - Xeno, Scientist: Life Sciences - Virologist – Xeno - Wyun's Disease.... and on and on ugghhh. Lastly, I played a few sessions, I moved my Scientist: Life Sciences - Virologist – Xeno - Wyun's Disease, from 15% to 30%, it feels unfulfilling. So, while mechanically awkward in certain ways, classes, if done correctly, provide a skills sandbox with which players can reasonably draw on. Rulings not Rules. Which is why I have issues with Skills and Feats in D&D 5e. Why have skills when you have classes and why have Feats when you have class abilities. Exactly as Seth mentioned, I like level-based games b/c they give you clear goals and an endorphin rush when you reach them, even with the quirks they entail: not once did you ride a horse, but now upon reaching 5th level you have the ability to ride like a dressage champion?!? :o I see the pros and cons for each approach, I just struggle with some aspects of skills-based systems more, I guess I am more accepting of the idea that: this is a game, some things can be arbitrary and don't need to be realistic, also I like endorphins and coffee :D. Thank you again for the gift of your time and sharing your thoughts.

MrGunn
>>94407071

Be careful about getting a director, you could find yourself in a compromising and potentially uncomfortable personal position, (hand on knee) so PDM how badly do you want the part...(could be fun if it is Mrs PDM, not so great if it Harvey DeathBringer.) <8oD LOL :D

Jay
>>94385756

Thanks again. I really believe we agree on more than we disagree. I see your point regarding skills-based games. There has been an issue with over burdensome skill lists as far back as I can remember including the old Role Master (AKA Chart Master) RPG system. So yeah, both type of game systems have their advantages and disadvantages. To resolve some of the skills-based issues I do some home brew so that it doesn’t bog things down with extensive lists of skills. Now that I think about it, I remember PDM doing a video suggesting getting rid of skills and doing some thing similar to what I suggested in the previous post. If it seems reasonable a character might have a skill they need based on background, profession, community, ect. Then just allow them to have it. Like a Ranger from a farming community will know how to effectively ride a horse without the need for over burdening the character sheet with extensive lists. A super easy example might be if playing EZD6 just give the character a Boon Die for a skill they could reasonably have. No complicated math or documentation needed. Hope that makes sense. I, like many others who play these sort of games, enjoy both systems for different reasons. I just prefer the skill-based a bit more. One of the biggest factors for me is HP almost never increases where dodge and parry might. There is also the example used by Seth about the thief who never used sneak attack reaching a high level and suddenly being an expert at it because it’s part of a level up package. Anyway, I clearly see the points you made regarding some issues with skill-based games and understand why you prefer the class-based games. So, with that I think this horse has been beaten to death by now. Have a great weekend.

Daniel Defazio
>>94427895

Well, I hope people don't lose their jobs, but I'd be nervous if I were the top tier designers right now.

Saltheart

Interesting Info! Thanks for sharing this! --- Will be interesting to see how this all plays out ---- as a secondary technical note: I noticed (maybe it's just me) that in the For Youtube portion of the vid the Focus appears to be off -- you are a bit blurry and the Wall of Stones is In Focus --- wasn't horrible but a bit distracting --- in the Bonus Content you were sharp in focus with backdrop a bit blurred (as expected) --- just wanted to mention it in case it was due to change in camera distance or a setting or some such! Keep up the Fantastic Work! God Bless!

Mariah Holt

From a major product release for 2022 what did they roll out? Critical Role: Call of the Netherdeep Mordenkainen Presents: Monsters Of The Multiverse Journeys Through The Radiant Citadel Spelljammer Box set I didn’t purchased any of these! I would like to WoTC change product release model. Example: Even year# is “new-product-year”: The year is spent with a slow release of well thought/testing materials or campaign settings. Odd year# is “expansion-product-year”: More content released, which expands on past years materials: campaign settings, monster manuals, adventures, ect.

Richie Walker

Yea. I used to buy 5e books all the time. Now, every time they announce something I’m like… meh. Pass.