Milenomics² Episode 190: News, Short Notice Planning & Risk (Patreon)

News

0:22 Citi Travel Portal now Powered by Booking.com (OMAAT)

• I’m liking this change already
• Booking .com is a better engine than cxLoyalty ever was
• Better inventory and pricing
• Disney properties available
• Citi Prestige 4th night free and Premier $100 off $500+ looks well implemented
• Finds airfare options I don’t see on Amex/BofA/Wells Fargo
• Still some pretty 'citi' type options, like paying more with cash if you use points. 

08:21 FNBO Amtrak 40,000 (+$100?) (reddit)

• Currently 40,000, hope is a dummy booking will add $100 soon
• High was 50,000 when issued by BofA
• $1,000 min spend
• $99 AF, not waived first year

10:30 Alaska Devalues JAL Business/First

• No-notice
• Business goes from 60k -> 80k
• First goes from 70k -> 85k west coast/100k elsewhere in US
• Still a value?
• For me, this officially completes the normalization of the value of an Alaska mile

What We’ve Been Up To

22:05 Amex Personal Gold +5x Grocery Referral Stunts

• AU 5,000
• 30,000 retention
• Fluz coding inconsistencies
• New or lost cards only getting 10,000 for referral (rather than 30,000)
• Good discussion with CF Frost on checking in episode 23 (link)
• Reminder: the applying person doesn't need to be eligible for a sign up bonus for the referral to give +5, only needs an approval.

31:44 giftcards.com + CapitalOne Shopping

• 5% back promo code for eVGC with Promo code “BLOOM”
• Targeted 6-30% capitalone cashback
• Will this post correctly? Doesn’t totally matter with the promo code so good.

34:16 $500 US Bank Business Checking application

• Applied, and… “we’ll get back to you”
• Update: How long did it take for an answer?
• 5 days later a letter came saying they could not verify my identity.
• Reminded that I was targeted for this offer. Bizarre.

37:35 Another Synchrony Mastercard

• P2 application approved
• Allows another $10k of pay by phone a month
• Churning CL is not a good idea so this was a creative solution

40:16 Hopeful Chase Ink Applications

• No new cards for either of us
• Chase still hates us. Both.

42:37 Short Notice Travel Planning

• Unlike most flights and trips took and booked multiple short notice flights
• AA/British Airways Bright Spot (Boston - Harrisburg 9,100 AA when flight was $399, DC to FL on AA FIrst next-day for 16,500 BA Avios)
• Hertz one-way drop follies
• Puzzler: Delta Pittsburgh - Boston, how to best pay for this?

53:01 Main Topic: Are we missing or downplaying risks in this game?

• Morgan Housel: “Risk is what is left over after you think you thought of everything”
• We sometimes think of the returns in this game as a ‘sure thing’
• I have seen my thinking change W/R/T standard investments
• Are we missing or downplaying the risks in this game
• Each week we talk about things that look like they’re going to fail, but somehow most of them work out for us
• Is that luck? Standard in this game? Both?
• Are we forgetting our losses and only remembering our gains

1:01:39 Plucky Airline of the Week: Contour Airlines

• Small “connector” airline serving tiny commercial airports
• Partners with AA to offer single-ticket connecting flights
• Can be a really cool way to get closer to remote destinations
• https://contourairlines.com