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Minecraft probability video: Every. Single. Take. (Patreon)

Published:
2021-02-05 21:49:35
Edited:
2021-02-07 20:27:59
Imported:
2026-06

Content

UPDATE2: Your fellow supporter Max Jäger has logged the time and details of every single attempt, with timecodes, in a spreadsheet. I declare them King of the Patreons! https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XQ_bRCCkRcXbH3eFjhFLOEvTa4jaiTrJ0eVHiMzV_As/htmlview

Thank you so much for your feedback on the draft version of my Minecraft probability video everyone! I was much better for it. I hope you liked the finished product.

I have uploaded every single take from me filming the improbable things as one omni-video. It's just over six hours. I don't suggest you watch it all; maybe skip through and check a few points to confirm I actually sat there and achieved all these shots legitimately.

This was for you all.

Main video: "How lucky is too lucky?: The Minecraft Speedrunning Dream Controversy Explained"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Ko3TdPy0TU

UPDATE: The main edit was missing the takes where I got the four-basketball-shots shot. There is no way I'm reexporting and uploading a >6 hour video, so it is now on its own here: https://youtu.be/E5UsAp229Fg

Files

How lucky is too lucky?: ALL THE TAKES

This is every single take from my Minecraft video about 'How lucky is too lucky?'. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Ko3TdPy0TU I made this available to my Patreon supporters. The post is here: https://www.patreon.com/posts/47175907 Thanks for your support everyone! I could only do this because of you.

Comments

Michael Preston

"I don't suggest you watch it all" talk about not knowing your audience! 😂

xje4

I was about to write "Challenge accepted" but you were too fast.

SkaveRat

I did not expect that the dart took over half of the time

Jetpack

Matt you mad bastard I love you

Matt Parker

I know! Turns out it was far more random than anything else. Also: I spent the first two hours (I think?) doing a longer chat each time before I cut my losses.

Matt Parker

Hey, if anyone wants to do a highlights edit: I’ll upload that as well.

xje4

"I'll edit it down" Thanks for not doing it. Raw data is the best data!

Ben Noble

33:45. “Not like this!” This single clip is worth a year’s Patreon subscription!

Karim Maassen

And this is exactly the type of content I became a patreon for. Excellent.

DrDelvan

Brutal, I swear it looks like the 4:15 dart hits the bullseye but just doesn't stick because of the angle!

Karen Hummelhoff-Jeppesen

Oh, sweet lord, this is painful to watch. I mean, thousands of coin flips or throws of dice was horrible too, but this... this is beyond that. You're absolutely mental. Here, take some more of my money.

David F

Hey! No spoilers!

David McCallie

Years from now, psychiatrists will show this video to prove that being an Obsessive is not necessarily a bad thing.

Pete Parker

I already think your effervescent energy is magical, but now — seeing you do the SAME THING for 3 hours straight (with the dart) while exuding that joy — I am in complete awe. I have no words to describe this level of dedication.

Pete Parker

Nice! 30 minutes in, nails it. 2.5 hours later, finally gets it again!!!

Shane Gleeson

6 hours, you beautiful crazy bastard 🤣 I love it!

Neil Sheriff

I came here to say essentially this, but you said it so much better than I could

Gilad Teller

Is it possible to get (buy?) only the "expansion pack" for Humble PI in case I already got the book?

Balázs Jókay

I mean I thought the XMas videos were something, but oh boy was I wrong :D! Love it! And loved the beard, sadly I saw the freshly shaved Matt at the end of the public video :( :)!

Andrew Carr

This is why we have the internet

The Dean

I admire your integrity with the dice, seeing how easy it would have been to use two sets of weighted dice since you bring them out of frame. I actually assumed you did it that way on my first watch.

Matt Parker

Not at the moment but I’ll talk to the publisher.

Matt Parker

The secret is that I truly believe each take is going to be the one which works.

Matt Parker

Likewise: I own strong magnets I could have put behind the bullseye on the dart board… …wait, WHY DIDN’T I DO THAT‽

The Dean

Why? Because when giving it a go, you really, REALLY give it a go. This video is like one Parker Square after another. :)

Bob Azzollini

This is the content that Gotham deserves. Because he can take it, because he's a statistician. He's a (not so) silent mathematician. A watchful protractor. A Parker Square.

Andy Clarke

I was waaaaay off with my guess of how long that took! Nice work!

Harriet Robins

After spending five hours in a chair with your thumb up you were really craving the next long tedious task weren’t you? 😂

Reed Bowman

You know, you REALLY should have uploaded this on Groundhog Day.

Reed Bowman

I'd really like someone to do the magnetic bullseye thing to show how little it helped. Then to build some system that actually did help. I mean, other than the utterly amazing system that moved the whole dartboard to catch the dart.

Reed Bowman

This is exactly what I wanted to say (and said a version of on the youtube comments). Matt, though, truly believing this time will be the one is also how gambling addiction works...

Tony David

I had to see this! So, hey, new patreon :D

Reed Bowman

2:31:58 the dart almost falls off, but corrects itself and ends up on triple-19, which is your best shot ever, I think. Too bad you didn't take that one.

Joseph Parker

You didn't do it Matt because you're a man of intergity, and not cheap fixes.

Markus Klyver

I think one could have seen if the magnet was strong enough, as in the path not looking 'natural'.

Clair McCowlen

So...who’s going to count all of Matt’s attempts and work out how lucky he is?

Ruben Huizenga

Now this is the type of content I like to spend my money on! Although I'm not sure if I can ever hear the phrase: "When you roll two dice, not all outcomes are equal" ever again

Keith Tyson

Nice work ethic Matt ! 💪

Florian Linscheid

The four basketball shots in a row are missing. I feel like that had to be more annoying than the one dart shot. You're telling us you need to recover a few months after giving your thumbs up for four hours and now you single handedly double that time. Crazy guy.

Richard Dickins

This was brilliant Matt - Thank you for sharing this with us. Your dedication to your craft is amazing! Really enjoyed this! The book toss is brilliant!

Ingrid

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

Matt Parker

What if you always expect the same result but seldom get it?

Thecommexokid

Surprised to see how little of a script you went into these segments with. On the one hand, it makes sense that you're expecting to have to repeat it a bunch of times so might as well finesse it as you go. On the other hand, when you're winging the script each time, I'd be worried about the risk that the one take where you nail it, you're not happy with how you phrased the actual content.

Matt Parker

You are absolutely correct! That is an impressive spot. I somehow missed that clip because it was (spoilers!) shorter than expected. It's uploading now and will be here shortly: https://youtu.be/E5UsAp229Fg

Ingrid

Statistical Insanity?

Matt Parker

Yes, there is a risk of nailing the shot on a ‘dud take’. But I think it’s worth because messing around with the wording helps me keep each take feeling fresh; if I did a set script it could start to sound a bit stale on the nth attempt (for large values of n).

Alex Mollberg

Holy moly, great work! I chucked your Scene info into a frequency count script and got: 335 attempts for dart, 287 attempts for dice, 112 attempts for basketball-final, 45 attempts for basketball, 38 attempts for dart-final, 30 attempts for bowling-pins, 27 attempts for book, 27 attempts for basketball2, 2 attempts for bowling-pins-final, and 1 attempt for basketball2

xje4

Ah, I think you missed to filter the events before counting it. Not every line is an attempt. Every start and end of a take is also listed as event.

Alex Mollberg

Darn it, you are right. The numbers should be more correct now.

Jaap van Muijden

I've noticed that Matt _LOVES_ repetition. All the die throws, all the re-shoots... I don't think anyone else would go for the "nuclear option" of just doing it over and over again. Until I saw the first "loop" start from the beginning, I honestly thought there was going to be _some_ trick. But no; just hours and hours of repetition. :D

Timur Sultanov

Guess what... When you roll 2 dice not all outcomes are equal...

The Dean

I was never as entertained in being disappointed as I was when Matt let me know that I did not win a pin (or book).

Matt Parker

I wouldn’t say I love repetition as much as I embrace r̶e̶p̶u̶t̶a̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ repetition. (And seem to have a pretty high tolerance of it.) Edit: fixed a typo to save my reputation.

Matt Parker

Good point. I should have mentioned that.

Matt Parker

Well done on watching it all through! Warning: I cannot guarantee the next time I upload hours of bonus footage that there will be a competition in there somewhere.

Derek Chandler

I’m just amazed how spontaneous and natural Matt sounds after 20, 30 or 100 takes. Most people would have given up and tried to work out how to fake the outcomes, attempting to clean things up with CGI in post production. But no, Matt just tries again and again until the unlikely happens. And here we see that Matt would have published way more live streams than Dream.

Matt Parker

Thanks Derek! It’s a bit embarrassing I couldn’t spell repetition when it appeared again.

Rick Rubenstein

I finally had to become a Patron; I just couldn't bear not seeing this. :-) Mad, MAD props on not flubbing your lines after the successful dart take.

epinardscaramel

I couldn’t believe you did it all of those without VFX, I had to become a patron to see it with my own eyes! 😀

Matt Parker

It wasn’t easy to remain calm. But I was highly motivated by really not wanting to have to do it again!

Matt Parker

Welcome aboard! Glad I could confirm it was all legitimate.

Arran McGown

He got a triple 20 too at one point too