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Tesla Valuation Model (VIEW ONLY) (Patreon)

Published:
2021-11-10 01:39:46
Imported:
2026-06
Tags:
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Videos

Content

View only version of my 10 Year Tesla Valuation Model (always up-to-date with the latest version)!

LATEST VERSION IS ATTACHED!!! My Tesla Valuation Model (Bear Case, Base Case, Bull Case & Hyper Case).


Any time I make changes to my valuation model I will UPDATE this post with the latest changes.

Check the POST ATTACHMENTS to DOWNLOAD the view only slides from the valuation model (Bear Case, Base Case, Bull Case & Hyper Bull Case).


An EDITABLE DOWNLOADABLE version of my Tesla valuation Model is available for supporters at the “Baller” tier and above here: https://www.patreon.com/posts/tesla-valuation-58519256 


This model is still in beta and is thus a work in progress.


(this view only version is only available to INVESTOR level supporters and above aka YOU. Lower support tiers can't see this post)


I love you all,

Steven

Files

Previews only

Tesla Valuation Model - Overview (20th April 2023).mp4

Comments

solvingthemoneyproblem

Update 14th Feb 2025: - Extended model 1 yr to 2034 - Fixed bug in Base Case Robotaxi ‘Percent Of Fleet As Robotaxi’ (was mistakenly using wrong start value and pulling from the bull case year 2 value instead of bull case year 1). This change adjusts all Base Case ‘Percent Of Fleet As Robotaxi’ values for the decade. - Future “Mexico” factory (now on hold) renamed to “Expansions” p.s. Thanks to you guys for submitting questions for the recent Q&A which led to me noticing this bug!!

Jay Porter
>>164640698

How come in the base case you have 2025 energy profit at 2 Billion when they just did 2.6 Billion in 2024 and have just started production at the new factory in China?

solvingthemoneyproblem

Tesla Fair Value - Latest Changes Dec 22nd 2025 FYI **NO AI CHIP SUPPLY BUSINESS INCLUDED IN THIS UPDATE** but this is a monumentally large opportunity long term. - Extended model to include 2035 - Streamlined some labels for clarity - Adjusted Bull Case Robotaxi cost per mile in start year to $2.50 (has positive impact on all scenarios) - To reflect 2025 first Robotaxi launch (vs 2024 in original Bull case), adjusted ‘Percent Of Fleet As Robotaxi’ estimate by one year (e.g. moved the 2024 figure to 2025) - Adjusted bull case 2025 Percent Of Fleet As Robotaxi to closely approximate Tesla’s likely year-end Robotaxi fleet size, along with 2026-2035 estimates for same - Adjusted Base case Percent Of Fleet As Robotaxi to be 25% of Bull case (down from 50%) and Bear case to 12.5% of Bull case (down fro 25% - Updated production estimates in Bull Case to more closely align with goals outlined at 2025 Annual shareholder meeting (has impact on all scenarios) - In Base Case, reduced % of non-Tesla FSD-capable EVs licensing FSD to 5% of Bull Case (Musk’s recent comments about DMF legacy auto companies making it hard for Tesla to help and only wanting small scale FSD licensing makes it likely most other auto companies will go bust so…) - In Bull Case, increased Bot ASP starting price to $100,000 - In Bull Case, adjusted 2025 FSD Take Rate to 17.5% - In Bull Case, increased valuation multiple to account for sustained long term growth in revenue and margins (on back of Robotaxis & Optimus) - In Hyper Cull case, increased multiple % of Bull Case from 105% to 125% - Increased “Musk Multiple” by (from 1.12 in 2025 to 1.25) and higher than previous for rest of decade to reflect strong shareholder support for 2025 CEO Performance Award and its decade-long duration. Net effect of these changes: Weighted FV is ~10-15% lower late from 2020s to early 2030s before accelerating dramatically in mid 2030s. (Context: new 2026 Weighted FV is $611 vs $626 prior and 2034 Weighted FV is $24,980 vs the prior $25,308 but years in between are lower).