This should go without saying but… (Patreon)

Hey guys,

Obviously with Tesla's planned Q3 shutdowns, production & delivery numbers will be lower than I forecast. I don't plan on updating my valuation model until there is more clarity on how much production will be lost. My best guess is probably 100-200k units for the year but it's too uncertain to try and guess at this stage.

Just flagging that now.

In other news, after Elon's epic FSD v12 demo yesterday, I am doubling down on my prediction that the first Tesla Robotaxi fare takes place in 2024. This date remains unchanged since I first published my valuation model in 2021 but my confidence level has increased steadily over time, and DRAMATICALLY following the v12 demo. I now give this an 80% probability.

Don't sleep on Robotaxis.

Not long now.

Love ya,
Steven