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Tesla Stock Fair Value (aka "Price Targets") - Hyper, Bull, Base & Bear (Patreon)

Published:
2024-01-16 01:29:32
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2026-06
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Content

My 10 Year Tesla Fair Valuation (2026-2035!) Bear Case, Base Case, Bull Case + Hyper Bull Case. Update will be posted HERE! Latest version HERE! Always check HERE!

Hey guys,


If you're new, introduce yourself here: https://www.patreon.com/posts/39492930


These are my current Tesla stock fair value aka "price targets" out to 2033 including bear case, base case, bull case, hyper bull case & weighted avg PT. I have not shared these publicly :)

FYI, I have not pulled these out of my ass.  I have a Tesla valuation model behind these numbers (which is available to INVESTOR tier supporters and above: see further down).


Naturally, these price targets will change regularly as I update my model based on new information. I will update this post and replace the old price targets with the latest price targets as they change!


What Is A Price Target?


"A price target is a price at which an analyst [or some dickhead on the internet] believes a stock to be fairly valued relative to its projected and historical earnings."   This is NOT a prediction of what the stock price WILL BE at any point in the future. It is what I believe to be "fair value" for the stock based on the INPUTS in my valuation model (that is WHY my valuation model is also available, so YOU can see the assumptions that produce the price targets). What the stock market "thinks" Tesla stock is worth has NOTHING to do with my valuation model or price targets. People often misunderstand this.


My Tesla Valuation Model (this is what makes my price targets):

I love you all, Steven


p.s. Feel free to share your price targets & reasoning below.

BUT WAIT, THERE'S MORE!!!!

Attached to this post (as spreadsheets) are:

► My Health Protocol: Sleep, Energy, Supplements, Diet, Productivity, Exercise

►Links to ALL exclusive Patreon videos (plus titles) listed in the order they were posted*

* This list does NOT include the exclusive Q&As (over 100 of them!) which you can easily find by searching “Exclusive Q&A” here on Patreon.

*********************************

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TOP 100 BOOKS: https://t.ly/NPsI

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p.p.s. Patreon shit the bed today and I am no longer able to update the original post I made with my price targets (here: https://www.patreon.com/posts/tesla-stock-fair-57460691/ ). Updates will be made to this post moving forward.

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Comments

solvingthemoneyproblem

Valuation Model Update (16th Jan 2024) Updates include: - In short: MORE differentiation between Hyper, Bull, Base & Bear Case (some of it long overdue)! - Increased Hyper case percent of Tesla fleet being used as Robotaxis to 250% of the Bull Case to account for possibility that the world shifts dramatically toward transport as a service via autonomous vehicles - Increased Hyper case automotive gross margin from 125% to 130% of Bull case - Increased Hyper case vehicle production ramp from 105% of Bull case to 130% of Bull case - Increased Hyper case AGI subscription cost from 250% of Bull case to 400% of Bull case) - Increased Energy gross margin in Bull case (which has flow on effects to Base & Bear cases which us a % of the Bull case for their Energy margin) - Increased Energy gross margin in Hyper case from 100% to 130% of Bull case - Differentiated Bot and Robotaxi start years between scenarios. Both are 1 year later in Base case and 3 years later in bear case—long overdue changes. Unchanged in Hyper and Bull case. - As I mention on the post with the downloadable and view only valuation model, “This model is still in beta and is thus a work in progress.” so more changes like this will occur in the future. Some of these include more work on the Energy business, the addition of Dojo as a service and other things currently noted under “exclusions”. A reminder that these cases are probabilistically weighted. The numbers in the Hyper case should seem on the ridiculously high side (production ramp was way too low previously for example…only 20.1M in 2023…which is Tesla’s own goal!!! As I write this, the Hyper case production number for 2030 is 25.0M after the changes) and in the Bear case numbers should seem ridiculously low—to illustrate THIS, the 2024 bear case production umber is currently 1.66M… literally LOWER than 2023’s actual production number). These changes barely impact the PTs which are a few dollars lower 2024-2027 (e.g. 2025 is now $3 lower LOL, 2026 is now $4 less, 2027 is now $2 less) and PT are bit higher from 2028-2033 inclusive. (as noted in the main post, today Patreon shit the bed and I can NO LONGER post updates on the old post. ALL future updates will be posted on THIS pinned post but the old post will remain which includes comments showing update history from me since first posting the model)

Matthew Granger Cosby

So with the update based on the Bear case, if I buy 75 shares of TSLA stock today ($16.4k), and it takes 8 years for Tesla to catch up on Cybertruck orders (2 mil reservations, run rate 250k/year), by the time a new order would be up I could afford the founders series Cybertruck (120k). I like it. Patience is a virtue.

GHV

Did you explain the Musk Multiple somewhere?

solvingthemoneyproblem
>>127205452

Yes, in previous comments AND the view only and editable valuation model have a paragraph explaining it under the fair valuation figures. It reads: ""* Musk Multiple. Elon is one of a kind and investors widely recognize this. The Musk Multiple is a measure of how much ""extra"" Elon Musk's involvement in Tesla adds to market cap. This declines over time as Elon becomes less hands on AND/OR his involvement becomes less impactful. The Musk Multiple assumes Elon becomes increasingly LESS involved in Tesla over time, eventually stepping down as CEO." "

solvingthemoneyproblem

Update to Health protocol spreadsheet. Added Alpha GPC to “Other” tab, which I am now taking occasionally before bursts of intense WORK and/or WEIGHTLIFTING.

T Tony Tone

Actual average stock price throughout 2024. $220. Buying below this mark. 😉

Oliver Thiebes

Can you explain the changes in your model since 2022? In 2022, your weighted 2024 price target was $1,247.55, showing a 50% difference from current valuations. I'm not concerned about the stock price itself; I'm interested in whether your model has become more realistic. Thanks!

solvingthemoneyproblem

Valuation Model Updates - 31st Jan 2024: - Replaced master “ASP % above base price” cell with a per-vehicle-model “% of bull” column in each scenario to be able to differentiate ASPs (and Base Prices) at a more granular level (per model vs aggregate ASP of all models) between bear, base, bull and hyper bull cases - Added “weighted ASP” to same table which will exactly match the vehicle ASP in 2033 for each scenario - The above changes had not impact on fair valuation for any years except 2033 (by a few dollars) Bot AGI changes: - Both monthly AGI subscription changed from steady state to increasing over time (long overdue) to reflect bot’s increasing commercial capabilities over time (e.g. it will be fairly basic and add low value initially, but long term will be super useful. Consider a full time salary as a benchmark… but remember the bot could work ~4x as many hours per week as a full time employee! If bot was 4x slower but could work 4x as much in a week as an avg US auto worker (whose total comp is ~$100k… in theory, Tesla could charge $8,000 per MONTH for bot and it would be a fair price. If it was HALF as fast… $16,000 per MONTH would be fair. Not saying this happens, but it is important context for the potential up side. I believe my estimates in the model itself are extremely conservative given this context) - Increased Bull case bot AGI monthly subscription from $250 to $500! Recently progress on Optimus (egg demo, and remote control laundry folding) suggest higher utility than I expected in an up side scenario so AGI subscription in bull case is priced accordingly and I still think may be WAY too low. This plus the change from steady-state to increasing AGI cost over time has flow on effects to all other scenarios which use a % of the bull case Bot AGI Monthly Subscription. - The above bot AGI price changes have a marginal impact up to 2029 of <5% on weighted PT but increasing impact thereafter as monthly AGI price grows AND Tesla’s bot fleet begins to scale ;) It’s important to note I expect Tesla bot monthly subscription cost will increase over time as capabilities increase. The more value (work) bot can add (do), the more Tesla can charge in theory. At some point, which may be decades from now, a Tesla bot will be able to do more useful work, by a meaningful amount, than a human in a single week.

Meno Chivo

Not sure, but is this the first time the model has a bear price lower than what it is currently trading at?

Matt

Are the fair values here in AUD or USD?

Jeff Wilsbacher

With Elon announcing Robotaxi 8/8/2024, will your models, and these numbers, be updated?

Stephen Kestle
>>134581574

I think SMR might say ""First robotaxi fare somewhere on earth in 2024" still looks likely". Also "it's just a matter of time - a few months here or there doesn't change the fact that it's INEVITABLE that Tesla will be eating..."

solvingthemoneyproblem

Updates 24th April 2024. ENORMOUS implications. Weighted PT has massively increased in later part of decade and beyond e.g. 2033 weighted PT is now +69% higher. Actually. Lower near term due to FSD price halving and lower production estimates. Details below. Finally made long overdue change I said would come: - Changed FSD monthly subscription price from steady state to increasing over time as functionality improves - HOWEVER, this is still a very poor proxy as I have used a $100 increase each year (in bull case) all decade. In reality, I expect a step-change in the cost once autonomy is solved and this will occur in different regions at different times BUT this more closely approximates the future. Once first robotaxis operate we will have more clarity around this. This is uncharted territory. - This change has made an ENORMOUS impact to fair valuation. Huge increases across the board except in the bear case where I have used a truly absurd FSD monthly subscription estimate which is 10% of the bull case.. meaning even in 2033 it would only be $100/month (for reference: it’s $99 today…. BEFORE autonomy is solved LOL). - Again I reiterate the purpose of the Bear and Hyper Bull cases is not to predict what happens but model extremely unlikely down-side and up-side scenarios and weight them accordingly. This is a probabilistic model, not a prediction of the future. - Obviously, I also adjusted current FSD subscription price to reflect recent $99/month price change in the bull case Also: - Adjusted production estimates down to be more in line with latest info on delay to Mexico, prioritisation of robotaxi. I have also now used Tesla’s own production capacity numbers for each factory in the bull case (which were quite close to my estimates prior). OBVIOUSLY it is not possible to product at 100% capacity due to down time but this is a good starting point for the bull case considering: production capacity is increasing at all facilities on all products except S/X and is also listed as great than, not “exactly”. - My prior production estimates look to have easily been off by at least 1 year. Makes a tiny impact on fair valuation. As I keep saying, autonomy will make the auto business look like a rounding error long term. Finally, I once again point out that in more than 100 years of the FED, never before have interest rates been increased as much or as fast in relative terms. We are in a less than 1% scenario right now. My Bear case is a 3% scenario. p.s. NO changes to anything else in the model (e.g. no changes to gross auto margins, insurance, bot, robotaxi, energy, supercharging etc).

John Bossnack

Elon said in earnings report that Optimus was their biggest future potential...and it's nothing right now...buy buy buy as Jim Cramer says ;)

Matthoman

Has anyone looked at the trend of the worlds largest market cap company over time and how that compares to tesla's projected market cap?

Justin Woolhandler

I was interested to see the model excludes "infotainment." To me, monetizing the rider's time in a robotaxi is one of the biggest opportunities. I was thinking it could be worth $1 per ride as advertising or access to music/movies/tv. There were 2.6 billion Uber rides in Q4 '23. So, this business could easily add $10+ billion in profit a year. Thoughts?

solvingthemoneyproblem

Updates (9th May 2024); In short: - Adjusted probabilities (in attempt to account for my optimism bias) - Delayed production ramps - Adjusted FSD & insurance take rates - Replaced bot steady state ASP & Margins with higher start price declining over time and & lower start margin increasing over time The effect of these changes is that all Weighted PTs have been delayed about 1 year e.g. 2024 was $873 and now 2025 is $805, 2032 was $19,963 and now 2033 is $18,735. AKA timing of fair valuations is ~10% different to prior version of the model. In detail: I’ve adjusted the probabilities of my Bear case (from 3% to 10% e.g. 1 in 10 chance), Bull case from 25% to 20% (1 in 5 chance) and Hyper Bull Case from 3% to 1% (1 in 100 chance). This is in an effort to account of my clear optimism bias 😂 The base case probability remains unchanged at 69%. These changes impacted the weighted avg PT. I have adjusted production. Tesla mentioned their intent recently to reach capacity of ~3 million vehicles from their EXISTING facilities. It seems likely that volume production on the next gen vehicle (dedicated robotaxi + consumer variations with base price around $25k maybe $30k) will begin ~24 months from now. Prior to then, I would expect production volumes to be fairly low. I have delayed the start of production in Mexico and the two future factories to be announced in 2025 (“TBD 2025”) by 12 months in the Base & Bear cases AND delayed the bull case production estimates (which are actually just Tesla’s existing “capacity” numbers from the Q1 2024 earnings report) by 12 months to 2025. I am now using 90% of Tesla’s CURRENT disclosed production capacity for my bull case production estimates in 2024. I have adjusted margins in the Bull case downward over the next few years to account for ramping of the interim vehicle and then the next gen vehicle and dedicated robotaxi. These changes flow into Base and Bear case which use a % of Bull case for margins. Late & end of decade margins remain the same. I have ALSO adjusted Optimus bot hardware cost (higher early on) and Optimus margins (lower early on) in Bull case which also flows into Base and Bear cases. Important to note that the BEAR case has HIGHER bot prices (e.g. Tesla can’t produce them as affordably as in the Bull case—meaning less people buying). This is not a mistake in the model. It is by design. There are 4 major curveballs in the next 12-36 months IMO. These will have a profound impact on my fair valuation. More visibility on these will be a great help and reduce my error rate. They are: 1. Interim vehicle production ramp to ~3M units 2. Dedicated Robotaxi & Next-gen vehicle production ramp 3. First commercial Robotaxi fares 4. Optimus production ramp Not to mention the possibility of FSD launch in China & take rates SURGING as capabilities improve.

Emmanouil Vosnakidis

A huge bump in 2028. I'm curious what ARK will unveil in a few months for the same year ........

Isaias

I have one particular question regarding human learning capabilities in comparison to FSD improvement rates or AI improvements in general. A young human driver needs only a couple of hours to be good enough to operate on the roads. FSD needs magnitudes more "training" hours in direct comparison. What if someone figures out how to create the same performance Tesla has with fewer resources but a better algorithm? That is the only attack angle I see where Tesla's moat could shrink significantly overnight and pose a substantial risk to the bullish cases. I don't think that other competitors will pull this off, but there is a huge gap between human learning efficiencies and the synthetic counterparts so far. We can only compensate for this inefficiency with large amounts of data, and also high-quality data. Tesla has this super data flywheel, which is all great, but it could very easily become a burden. A human doesn't need all of that. This is something to keep an eye on. For better reference, we need to take another topic into account as well. A human operates as a pedestrian during their first years of life, maybe as a cyclist or even a motorcyclist. We learn that things hurt when we hit them early on, and this translates to the car-driving learning experience. So we can say that each human is training to drive for 16-18 years. The number of hours to get to this point is a good reference, in my opinion, to measure the gap between FSD and human learning efficiency. So if someone can develop an algorithm that can achieve the same performance with only 18y * 24h/d * 365d/y = 157,680 hours of training data, then we have a problem. I haven't heard anyone raise this point in critical discussions so far. Has anyone ever thought about this? What do you think?

Roshan

So Tasha is now the hyperbull with a 2000/2027 PT :)

T Tony Tone

Take 2021 PT number and divide by roughly 3. Now blame the Fed. and/or Biden Admin. 🙂 (I'll probably blame optimism bias, Elon's schedule bias, and the oil and gas industry.)

Donald Worthington

How to turn $200K into a $50K valuation: adopt a “buy and hold” philosophy with $TSLA. Hang onto that Titanic handrail y’all. That way, you won’t drown and someday it’ll be useful again - doorstop, maybe.

Donald Worthington
>>137513037

“Training” on a neural network is something of a misnomer. It involves tuning two sides of an output circuit to have a zero voltage differential between them. Input in, same answer out, network is “trained.” Repeat. Next input the results are likely to be different. Adjust. Repeat. Adjust again. Eventually (and I do mean eventually) the results normalize. That’s why you need so much data. Contrast that with the human. In this case, the human INTENDS to learn how to drive. If the human doesn’t WANT to learn to drive, the human may never master the skill (Yes, I am thinking of my granddaughter here, lol). But it’s this INTENT (or its opposite) that is the big difference. The machine doesn’t intend to drive. It’s just been trained on how to respond in a given set of circumstances.

That serious series

Do you also have a price target without any AI? I think that the shareholder vote as well as further judge rulings might be against Elon and he will eventually take AI business from Tesla and start a new company with it. From his posts on X I get that he would leave FSD, cars and energy at Tesla. So it might be the most realistic case to account for only that in future Tesla price targets. At least it would be the "safest" calculation.

Meno Chivo

I cant keep up with all the goal post moving.... If and when TSLA goes crazy like NVDA (cause at one point it will inevitable) will the goal post be moved back in the opposite direction?

Mircea Blaga

Based on the rapid NVIDIA development of Real World AI ecosystem it is just a matter of time until they create a standard for an FSD of their own, on the robotics side they are already ahead of TESLA with their capabilities. Although I was bullish before the main future growth revenues are not going to happen anymore. Did you take that in consideration for your estimations?

Anthony M. Robinson

I freakin Love you!! No Diddy! I love you work ethic! I love you Analysis! I love your humor! I love your logic! I share your channel with everyone I talk shop with so they can see and Learn from the best! You were the First YouTuber I began watching on TSLA when I had my $137 call option that went to $11,000. I've learned much from then and I'm applying it today. I look forward to being in a better position to then be able to join you as a multiple share owner of TSLA and all things Elon whenever his other companies go public. Just because I haven't been commenting on your platforms doesn't mean I'm not clicking the Like button DAILY. I believe that we must give appreciation when it hits us. And I know we are entering a New phase with TSLA and Mr. Elon Musk. Respect to him and you is due from me Thank you Steven. And when I'm able I'm going to purchase some merchandise and AG1 using your code to get the best deal and to continue to support all you do for us and promote you. Also I LOVE when Elon communicates with You on X!!!!💯👏🏿👏🏿👏🏿💪🏿🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 Thank you 💙

ADA

You need to start making more content. Not worth the fees otherwise.

Feng Pan

wow, $10 just for some random numbers, i thought it would include the spreadsheet. totally worthless

INSTACHAVA

Been here since Elon does Psychedelics video....impressed with your work ethic. A video every single freaking day.... 👏 👏 👏

solvingthemoneyproblem

Update 24th July 2024: In short: adjusted FSD licensing TIMING & percent of non-Tesla fleet in all scenarios. In detail: Differentiated first year of FSD licensing across scenarios AND instead of a single value for % of non-Tesla EVs licensing FSD, I now have a different figure per year in each scenario for more granularity. This accounts for time delay between FSD licensing agreement and first vehicles implementing Tesla FSD after the deal AND for increasing (rather than steady-state) FSD licensing rates. AND, to account for inevitable bankruptcies, DUMB companies and low-volume EV makers (Tesla said on earnings call if fleet under 1M they won’t make a deal), I have adjusted Bull case Tesla EV Fleet share (25%) to Tesla FSD-capable EV share (20%) which has flow on effects to other scenarios. Other tiny tweaks relating to FSD licensing between scenarios. No other changes. Changes have heavy impact short term (lower), and some impact long term (higher) e.g. 2027 weighted PT was $1,480 now $1,181, 2033 weighted PT was $18,735 now $20,127.

D Duffy
>>140275430

Nvidia doesn’t make robotics, just tools for others to use to make robotics. When you have a bunch of customers with competing ideas and requests who gets priority response? Do ANY of their robotics customers have manufacturing capabilities? Short answer, no, they outsource that to a different company that also has a bunch of other customers. See a pattern? Tesla designs and manufactures in house. Tesla probably has more bots manufactured/built than the top 5 AI/robotics recently announced companies combined and that’s just for their engineers to train, test and validate, not including what they have on the production line.

T Tony Tone
>>144499233

Timing is everything, whether short term or long term. Why do you think Bill Gates is so rich? 🙂

electricpioneer
>>144485457

Haven’t heard you mention Mt. Gox for a long while. I wouldn’t mind a video or a Q&A segment where you talk about your strategy going forward. It’s hard not being all-in on $TSLA at the moment… 😅🤠

Emmanouil Vosnakidis

Will you change anything in your valuation model after the "we robot" event ? Update: now that we have the Q3 results ?

PAUL

Is the Musk Multiple meant to effect the Weighted PT? If so, check the formula as it is not effecting the value.

Adrian Cantu

Steven, your 2024 Bull case is spot on! Amazing work!

Tobias Salzbrunn

Hi Steven, happy new year ... how about an update to your TESLA fair evaluation chart :-)

Andy

Has any youtuber or 'X-er that studies TSLA posted predictions for January auto sales?

Luke L

Earnings had lots of nuggets for the short and long term. Time for an update to the chart, Steven? Curious if your updated base case will look more like the old bull case in light of all the stars aligning politically and in terms of progress with FSD and Optimus.

solvingthemoneyproblem

Update 14th Feb 2025: - Extended model 1 yr to 2034 - Fixed bug in Base Case Robotaxi ‘Percent Of Fleet As Robotaxi’ (was mistakenly using wrong start value and pulling from the bull case year 2 value instead of bull case year 1). This change adjusts all Base Case ‘Percent Of Fleet As Robotaxi’ values for the decade. p.s. Thanks to you guys for submitting questions for the recent Q&A which led to me noticing this bug!!

Vince

These numbers are all over the place and impossible to be wrong with that wide of a range. Useless info TBH.

Joakim Viskinde

Thanks Steven. How come you think the fair value of the stock in 2025 and 2026 BASE case ie. has dropped since your October Valuation?

Petar
>>164640771

he has probabilites. this should guide u. bear case is hyper bull case for anyone on the market

Gary Masson

Are we getting an update soon?

solvingthemoneyproblem

Just posted an update to: My Health Protocol - Sleep, Energy, Supplements, Diet, Productivity, Exercise (8th May 2025) Minor changes to supplements, diet, exercise etc. What I am doing is working very well so just shared the latest changes. It's attached to the post above.

SM

Is this the right chart to view ? Why have the 2024 price targets been removed ?

SM

Hi ! Looking at the current scenario in Tesla, does anyone think that 2025 bull case price of $747 is possible by EOY? I do ….. Many thanks

Andres Fontiveros

When we updating this with lastest info from the shareholder annual meeting

Keith

Hey SMR, waiting patiently for the latest update as keen to see the changes due to tesla robots

Elbow
>>195618425

He should update when he has a reason. He took that all into consideration already.

solvingthemoneyproblem

Tesla Fair Value - Latest Changes Dec 22nd 2025 FYI **NO AI CHIP SUPPLY BUSINESS INCLUDED IN THIS UPDATE** but this is a monumentally large opportunity long term. - Extended model to include 2035 - Streamlined some labels for clarity - Adjusted Bull Case Robotaxi cost per mile in start year to $2.50 (has positive impact on all scenarios) - To reflect 2025 first Robotaxi launch (vs 2024 in original Bull case), adjusted ‘Percent Of Fleet As Robotaxi’ estimate by one year (e.g. moved the 2024 figure to 2025) - Adjusted bull case 2025 Percent Of Fleet As Robotaxi to closely approximate Tesla’s likely year-end Robotaxi fleet size, along with 2026-2035 estimates for same - Adjusted Base case Percent Of Fleet As Robotaxi to be 25% of Bull case (down from 50%) and Bear case to 12.5% of Bull case (down fro 25% - Updated production estimates in Bull Case to more closely align with goals outlined at 2025 Annual shareholder meeting (has impact on all scenarios) - In Base Case, reduced % of non-Tesla FSD-capable EVs licensing FSD to 5% of Bull Case (Musk’s recent comments about DMF legacy auto companies making it hard for Tesla to help and only wanting small scale FSD licensing makes it likely most other auto companies will go bust so…) - In Bull Case, increased Bot ASP starting price to $100,000 - In Bull Case, adjusted 2025 FSD Take Rate to 17.5% - In Bull Case, increased valuation multiple to account for sustained long term growth in revenue and margins (on back of Robotaxis & Optimus) - In Hyper Cull case, increased multiple % of Bull Case from 105% to 125% - Increased “Musk Multiple” by (from 1.12 in 2025 to 1.25) and higher than previous for rest of decade to reflect strong shareholder support for 2025 CEO Performance Award and its decade-long duration. Net effect of these changes: Weighted FV is ~10-15% lower late from 2020s to early 2030s before accelerating dramatically in mid 2030s. (Context: new 2026 Weighted FV is $611 vs $626 prior and 2034 Weighted FV is $24,980 vs the prior $25,308 but years in between are lower).