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893 - We Left The Percs With Maher feat. Derek Davison (12/12/24) (Patreon)

Published:
2024-12-13 06:56:20
Imported:
2026-06

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Content

Chapo senior Foreign Policy analyst Derek Davison returns to the show as time continues to progress and events continue to occur. Today we turn to Syria, where the Assad regime suddenly collapsed over the last week. We discuss how Assad finally must go’d, the new groups filling the power vacuum, their relations to various regional and international states, and how Israel is exerting its power amid the chaos. We also discuss last week’s failed mini-coup in South Korea, and what that means for the government there.

Find all of Derek’s foreign policy coverage at:

www.foreignexchanges.news

www.americanprestigepod.com

Purchase Refaat Alareer’s “If I Must Die” here:  

https://bookshop.org/p/books/if-i-must-die-poetry-and-prose/21530923?ean=9781682196212&gad_source=1&gclid=Cj0KCQiAgdC6BhCgARIsAPWNWH3V8BcDXv-gg8uxdBjH7qVFtCKGHzt5Z5bMBSUunOfyar68lDFw5EwaAtCmEALw_wcB

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Comments

Goonba

Goon time !

Goonba

Cocks out loaded ready to go and shoot some loads after a good day of edging to chapo

Semine

Empty your cups fellas its time to reset the goon cycle

Travis

Felix begins speaking at 1 minute and 40 seconds

Erika Stecz

Sorry. What's the deal with this? I'm dumb? The timing of Felix talking?

Jackson

People started commenting it on episodes where he didn't talk until like 40 minutes in and it became a running bit

Felix

Did something change with how episodes are being uploaded on patreon? The last two have showed up differently on my third party podcast app that takes episodes from the RSS

Timothy Buttons

You should change your display name to Goonba! Haha.

Chris Wade

Some back end glitches I’ve been dealing with the last two weeks, resolved last episode and should have fixed the previously affected eps as well

Timothy Buttons

HTS is feeling itself in a major way! Bashar has weak aura! I should be allowed to talk on the podcast

Felix

Thank you!

TugNuggins

Oh hell yeah. Bts drop. Never expected to hear that on here!

calvin kilby

Rest in eternal power, Refaat Alareer.

Antipaganda

Dude. Matt sounds great. It's good to hear his voice, and his poetry. I assume that any reluctance to come back and just riff is now due to stamina issues, which I totally get, disability sucks in so many invisible ways. Love you man. Keep wearing the hat and being Matt.

RubbishBinMan

They're eating the dogs, they're eating the cats that are in there.

Matt

Ty Matt. Another banger poem.

Ligma

It would be great if he did some segments every once in a while !

Last Years Man

Damn, thanks for introducing me to that Warren Zevon song!

Michael Ouderkirk

HTS? That's Home Team Sports for those of us who grew up watching the Orioles in the 90s

Timothy Buttons

Stroke of genius or stroke on penis? You decide.

Tim O'

What is a "jihadi/zionist apologist"? We must study your brain

Last Years Man

I think they mean Derek. A lot of people seem to have it out for him.

Company Processing

Don’t shove your head in the oven, keep subbing to Chapo.

Doug Cartel

Oh yeah, there's no way something like this happens without years of planning, just for the logistics alone, regardless of how weak SAA were.

Chris

Pretty funny that an orangutan snatched your phone away mid-comment and started wildly poking the screen

Eric Murphy

I do love the garbage balloon idea N.korea has employed, but I'm not sure if they want to get into a garbage fight with any capitalist country... Waste is our thing ain't nobody making more than capital.

ZAC

I just heard a person accuse Israel of trying to colonize Japan. That’s not pro-palestinian activism, it is not only Nazism (100% something a Nazi would say), but also one of the absolute dumbest things I’ve ever heard. Gross 🤢

Patron

::squeaky giggles::

Company Processing

Dude fell down an open manhole mid rant like, thepp ppplor topical aaaa gaahhhh aaaah aaaaahgh aaghr ghhaaaa aaaaghgaa ….aaaamdkck countppolarts.z5

gavin curran

Are they defending HTS/al Qaeda? I haven’t listened yet but if they are this criticism is accurate

Travis

It’s when Felix begins speaking

Will

AND ZEVON WITH THE CLOSE

Migz

We love Matt

EVIL PLANET

Gotta know exactly when our boy speaks

brando

when you listen, you'll actually learn that there's a significant difference between those two

brando

great episode - Derek had good insights on Syria, there's some fascinating articles on the evolution of HTS and it's violent split from al-qaeda. worth adding that HTS and Jolani have moderated in deed as well as talk the past 6 years, and were heavily involved in interfaith outreach in Idlib with Druze and Christian communities - that negotiating experience was part of why the minorities broke from assad this time. still in a very awkward place though: Druze that they forcefully converted as Al Nusra aren't allowed to return to their faith, since HTS still isn't cool with "apostasy," but they've (at times forcefully) defended other Druze communities

Michael Ehrenreich

I mean I think there was planning for the HTS offensive but it didn’t take major planning for Russia to focus on its own war, Hezbollah to get majorly weakened and Iran to be driven off.

brando

only note/suggestion is that it'd be great to hear from Syrian refugees or activists (ideally from multiple denominations/ethnicities) - that was part of what made Chapo's Palestine coverage so strong IMO

brendo

Don't worry guys Maher is chilling at my place

Richard Cochnar

Refaat’s books is out of stock in the episode link and on Amazon. Nice job everyone.

J Lit

Love me a Derek update. Can only listen to so much AP before Danny starts to get on my nerves

Uso Dayo

It does help explain the whole “Torah, Torah, Torah” thing at Pearl Harbor

demonsweat

Bad week for Terence and Tom's Ba'athist coal miner, hope he's holding up ok

Fernslinger

Great episode! Little Matty Christmas sounding good at the end there.

Nathan Explosion

i’m fine with danny on news AP but he’s insufferable with certain interviews and on other pods

Matthew

Uncritical support for DPRK's garbage campaign ✊

Jessica Rios

We need to hear Matt’s opinion of Luigi explored deeper!

gavin curran

I would not assume the people who created Al Qaeda in Syria have moderated their stance at all

Tan Tan

I had read that it was poop balloons. That didn't make sense though because according to the super reliable yeonmi park poop is a valuable resource in North Korea that they force kids to collect for fertilizer

brando

well, given that they broke from al-qaeda, went on to repeatedly engage in armed conflict with al-qaeda's new group, destroyed that group, and then engaged in a 5-year program of moderation and engagement with religious and ethnic minorities, your assumption is incorrect. this isn't to say that the woke jihad jokes are 100% true (see my standalone comment on the Druze above), but they have massively moderated in actions as well as in rhetoric. al qaeda would not allow for the sale of alcohol to continue, would not allow for female autonomy, and *especially* would not allow for Christians to continue publicly celebrating and decorating for Christmas

Dee Rubes

I don’t care how good the hasbara money is buddy, your dignity isn’t worth it.

E. GONZO

Matt’s got bangers. I might be imagining it but his speech sounds much better than before.

gavin curran

I think you’re extremely naive to think the same people who started Al Qaeda and have been in Isis changed their ideology at all, they just wanted to run their own organization they don’t have any actual ideological conflict with Al Qaeda. Did you see the interim government is flying Isis flags next to the Syrian flag? These are the same people

DrJKL

Matt, would you say that Roland the Headless Thompson Gunner is technically a murder ballad?

Woke Batou

Yes! And I think he's using the poems maybe as speech therapy? Big improvement

Michael

What’s up with the audio balancing 😭

James

Yeah but now that they are in charge of a state they may change their ideology, at least that is what materialism tells us

Michael

“He does strike me as a kind of guy who’s always looking to better deal his friends at any given time.” Sounds like Assad and Trump would have really hit it off if they ever met.

Sam

Lmao what’s up with the musical transition at ~50 mins! Love you christopher, but the tonal shift there was a little much

brando

I would recommend actually reading up on HTS - they've spent more time (6+ years) as "pluralist moderate technocrats" (obviously hyperbolic) than they did as AQ affiliated (5 years). They have clearly and obviously changed their policies in a number of easily observable ways: they broke from al-qaeda, went on to repeatedly engage in armed conflict with al-qaeda's new group, destroyed that group, actively suppress it to this day, and then engaged in a 5-year program of moderation and engagement with religious and ethnic minorities. al qaeda would not allow for the sale of alcohol to continue, would not allow for female autonomy, and *especially* would not allow for Christians to continue publicly celebrating and decorating for Christmas. HTS halted policies of forced conversions, ceased using suicide bombers, and allows women to pursue education. could things get worse? yes, they have a big issue of exceptionally radicalized foreign fighters, which is gonna be a *big* problem for attempts to moderate - but for now, they have a clear record of a real ideological change over the past 6 years in Idlib

MEAT CLOWN

I believe one of the items in the garbage balloons was said to be shitty toilet paper

brando

for a comparison, HTS is easily more moderate than the Taliban or Hamas, and is probably more comparable to Iran or Hezbollah (ignoring the very significant issue of transnational vs national jihad, which is one of the major splits in the movement)

gavin curran

The head chopping has begun, liquor stores are already being damaged, unscarved and ‘single’ women being attacked. They’re Al Qaeda

gavin curran

‘HTS officials order Palestinian resistance factions to disarm, close bases in Syria’ if you were wondering what side you’re on

Sai

Kinda strange how few people seem to be thinking about the potential for Syria to absolutely explode in the wake of the fall of Assad... Isn't there a huge power vacuum? Isn't this just the beginning of a freshly revamped civil war?

Alejandro Pepsi

Yamagami heard the tsunami of Roland's Thompson gun and bought it <3

brando

yeah none of that is true beyond isolated incidents of individuals acting against explicit orders - other than the summary execution of war criminals, which i support, as any serious revolutionary should (unless you're the type who would've broken from Castro when he started delivering justice to the Batistianos). HTS has issued and enforced explicit instructions to not interfere with the dress of women, and has made official accomodations with Christians on the sale of alcohol. and I wouldn't bring up the Israelis if I were a regime supporter, after it's been proven that the regime was coordinating and cooperating with the IDF to let them bomb the Iranians and Hezbollah - ignoring the insistence that Syrians die for you against Israel (which sounds a lot like how Americans love talking about Ukraine and Russia)

brando

Less factions at play than you'd imagine actually, you've got HTS and the Turkish-backed SNA in the north, the Kurds in the northeast, and the resurrection of the FSA + local Druze militias in the South - basically all of which are willing to negotiate with each other, other than the SNA with the Kurds. HTS has really been able to step into the vacuum remarkably quickly, and somewhat seamlessly took over state institutions. As of now, all factions other than the SNA are negotiating in Damascus on what kind of a deal they can strike, and there's immense public pressure to come to an arrangement - I'd expect any clashes to most likely be around the SNA and evicting the Turks, unless Jolani really overplays his hand in trying to consolidate power

Whistle Dog

Best Matt poem yet, that was awesome - blew my socks off just like Bryan Thompson 😘

Ryan

I <3 Assad’s sans-stache Mr Bean look

Ryan

Mr Bean and Jean Reno mashup

Snooder87

Tulsa King is washed. It's all about Landman these days.

Sai

Well here's hoping. Seems dubious to me.

etienne

cringe failsons create lame times lame times create swaglords swaglords create dope times ---> south korea is here dope times create cringe failsons

Schaeffer Mallory

Please eventually collate and publish the strokes of genius poems

Chapo Bath House

How tf was I not born for these times but Warren Zevon was?

Kevin C

Protect the hive

Special Adeline

omg i was just belting out roland the headless thompson gunner on my drive this morning... the universe is speaking to me

Jake Zydek

Matt's comeback is real!

Andrew Cross

Felix first mentions fighter jets at 23:27 MiG-29 ‘Fulcrum’

hamburglar

He doesn’t even ask questions when he’s interviewing people. He spins a long winded lecture about what HE thinks, then tacks on “what’s your read?” at the end. He’s only ever interviewing himself.

etienne

how does it compare to when the taliban took back control of afghanistan?

Jessica S

Who said that in the show? He referenced how that was the way they were presenting themselves but I don’t think it was even worth noting that it’s BS.

Greasy_Jones

Matt is sounding great, you absolutely fucking love to hear it

J

Where can I get the text of Matt's poems?

brando

much less violent than the taliban takeover as of now, but it's hard to make a direct comparison tbh - there's many groups on the ground in Syria instead of just one, most of the SAA was conscripted (and isn't facing reprisals as a result) instead of the Afghan army being mainly volunteers/mercenaries, and the sectarian aspect is something that Afghanistan doesn't really have. another important difference is that the Taliban essentially replaced the Afghan republic with their own state, while HTS has more or less just taken over the existing Syrian republic, so they're securing foreign recognition much easier. as far as women and minorities go though, HTS is doing much, much better at allowing autonomy - they're negotiating joint security patrols with Alawite militias in Latakia for example, and all the pictures of unveiled women taking selfies with HTS fighters should give you a sign as to their desire or willingness to restrict women's dress (generally the lowest bar/first step for Islamic fundmentalists). It could still very much turn into another rerun of the Islamic Revolution in Iran, but I don't think anyone could seriously argue that type of system wouldn't be an improvement on assad's regimen

gavin curran

Brando brother you’re trying a little too hard to manufacture consent for woke Al Qaeda

brando

hey man, unlike you, some people who don't know about it are actually curious about the truth instead of just repeating mantras they heard from someone else, and a 15 year civil war can't be summed up in 20 words

Sai

For real, gets my hopes up he'll be able to get on the horse again someday. But it might be an even better gig just putting nice little cherries on top of the eps.

Zach Pierce

With a no. 2 pencil, a sheet of notebook paper and 10 minutes of spare time

Jameson .

Pulling back from Luigi Mangione was a mistake :/.

Schwartz666

No wonder I was slopless! Deep State made my card expire.. Grey Wolf status reactivated ✅️

Goonba

It’s done

Scott Brown

So great to hear Matt's voice <3

Sneakin Sally

that poem and the zevon drop really got to me. Just utterly blindsided by a wave of emotion. Now im in public looking like i was crying

drewb

Given his history, it is entirely possible that the lion of Syria gave Rowan Atkinson an eye test at some point

Professor Jokes

Davison's omissions are intentional or indicate incompetence.

Audeamus

I hope that is sarcasm. They just need to invite someone other than Derek Davison, who basically represents the perspective of the left-wing of the CIA.

Audeamus

Defending "moderate rebels" is a curious way to spend your time. Crucially, their ideology matters a lot less than the fact that they're Turkish clients and have done exactly what the US and Israel wanted in the region - turned a member of the Axis of Resistance into a total power vacuum for the US and Israel to literally step into. They are today's Mujahideen, Khmer Rouge, the death squads of American empire.

Eran Greenberg

It’s funny and it’s weird and there’s a stroke

Audeamus

The State Department take. Praising "interfaith outreach" by yesterday's Al Qaeda fighting for the US and Israeli interests! An enemy of Palestine is no friend of mine.

Jon

Such as…

brando

ah, then you oppose the regime for coordinating with the IDF to help them more effectively bomb Iran and Hezbollah? and of course, you would oppose the regime for kicking Hamas out of the country in 2012 (at Israel's request). and surely, you think it's a problem that the rebels found hundreds of Palestinian fighters in Bashar's prisons, most of whom were thought to have been killed or captured by the Israelis. you should actually look into the dynamics in the country rather than guessing about them, there's a reason the IDF only bombed the Syrian military once bashar fell, they knew he'd never actually use it against them

brando

less curious to defend a revolution than to defend the rape dungeons of a regime working with Israel under the table to keep Palestine down, but please, keep ignoring all the classified regime documents that have been leaking for the past week straight - the fact that you actually seem to think HTS is a turkish client makes it clear enough that you don't actually know what you're talking about. the only Turkish client in syria is the SNA, whose leaders have been given Turkish citizenship, and it is the only group on Syria that gets Turkish air and artillery support. syria did nothing for the resistance, and assad's government easily had the most palestinian blood on its hands after the IDF - encourage you to actually meet and talk to palestinians instead of using them as your cudgel like americans love to do with ukrainians, kurds, etc. for example: why is Hamas' political leadership based on the western ally of Qatar? what country were they in before, say, 2012? why did that country kick them out, at who's request?

gavin curran

A revolution is when Turkish backed al Qaeda coups your government, most obvious bait yet comrade

brando

this the the key I think - 15 years of war is enough to exhaust and nearly break the spirit of the people, but not long enough to forget a time before it. the result has been such jubilation on the part of both the people and the fighters themselves that we gotta hope against hope that people refuse to fight any more. the other promising thing is that Jolani has been backtracking whenever people get mad (HTS flag alongside the revolutionary one, unilateral changes to the constitution or government, etc), if we're lucky, he's vain enough to want to remain the revolutionary hero who freed syria more than he's interested in personal consolidation of power

brando

you're just saying words without meaning because you refuse to engage with foreign policy beyond campism - please, continue to dictate to the rest of the world on if you think they're sufficiently revolutionary, and continue to wonder why Palestinians mock American leftists. 15 years of sanctions on Iraq were lifted within days of Saddam's fall, while Biden says he won't raise any sanctions on Syria, but yes, everything everywhere is always the CIA

gavin curran

Campism is when you oppose al Qaeda coups, this is why no one believes state department liberals

Riley Ken

I ordered Matt’s book and a shirt back in October and it still hasn’t shipped. Is that normal? I was charged.

brando

nah it's when you support the regime for coordinating with the IDF to help them more effectively bomb Iran and Hezbollah. and of course, you support the regime for kicking Hamas out of the country in 2012 (at Israel's request). and surely, because everyone other than bashar is al-qaeda, you think it's fine that the rebels found hundreds of Palestinian fighters in Bashar's prisons, most of whom were thought to have been killed or captured by the Israelis - that's obviously ok since Hamas are violent Sunni fundamentalists. while obviously the reason the IDF only bombed the Syrian military once bashar fell, that isn't because they knew he'd never actually use it against them while HTS might - and the IDF definitely didn't repeatedly bomb the military intelligence building in damascus to destroy documents proving their collaboration. but pretend to keep supporting Palestine gavvy!

Sai

Yeah idk... Is that how history usually plays out? Trade one dictator for another and everything's hunky dory? I don't see the US really being satisfied with anything in Syria other than a complete basket case or an utterly servile client regime, and the latter usually comes with an insane police state.

brando

frankly, as far as police states go, it can't really get worse than what they're replacing, bashar's dad did an operation paperclip exclusively for SS concentration camp overseers - realistically, a system like Iran or hyper-AKP Turkey is the best thing we can expect (heavily religious, some degree of repression, meddling in politics, but still genuinely democratic and willing to cede power to different factions or parties when it comes time for elections). and as it stands, with america still refusing to lift sanctions, my guess is that Syria will just go elsewhere: the gulf, turkey, china, even maybe just back to russia. the need to find a new partner is obviously accelerated by the Israeli invasion, which gives benefits to those willing to act first, but that's also serving as an external pressure to consolidate the revolution, much like Saddam's invasion of Iran did for the Islamic Republic

Professor Jokes

Claiming its unclear if turkey is supporting hts when it's not even a secret. Even John friggin Mccain met with hts predecessor al nusra leaders in turkey and Syria. It's not even up for debate. Very strange for someone who claims to be a foreign affairs expert to not more this. Omitting kurdish relationship with Israel is another strange one.

linguinitortellini

I think they said the books would ship early 2025? I could be mistaken.

Reece Coren

when Felix said biden has senioritis i laughed so hard i started choking and had to pull over

Alejandro Pepsi

One thing I really want to hear more about, what is going to happen when the watermelon seller retires soon? Is he actually going to leave power? And he has been so tied up in everything, what will happen in his absence? We need an erdogan ep

PP Cool P

Thats crazy i was just listening to roland the farter at work

James Phillips

I know this is stupid but Felix the Onion are producing videos again

Oliver Elliott

I choose to believe this is sarcasm.

Oliver Elliott

No explanation. No point in looking for one either. It’s all part of a cosmic consciousness.

Dungenesss

They are manufacturing them based on the number of orders they received, so they’re being manufactured right now most likely. I think they said they’d ship in early 2025 in some earlier episodes.

L.

It absolutely can get worse than Assad. Are we forgetting that Al Nusra and ISIS were genocidal factions that had a pretty broad base of popular support? Even if they're "genuinely democratic" what do you think that looks like for the non-sunni minorities in Syria? Maybe HTS is different, maybe beheading infidels was just their emo phase, but it seems insane that you can look at Syria and say "how could it get worse than Assad?" when the SAA and the Russians defeated ISIS

Alice Pooper

And his answer to everything is “we’re just so fucked.” Being a public intellectual has never been easier!

Noctor

I heard it take about South Korea and how the thousands of people showed up to confront the soldiers that basically goes that since South Korea has a mandatory three year period of service in the military that there’s less of a separation between the general populist in the military from a social standpoint. I don’t know if that’s really true or not, but I don’t have enough evidence to refuse it.

gumb0

Will Chris end up compiling Matt's poems? I really liked the end of this one 🤌

brando

The breathless comparisons to AQ and ISIS are so far from reality that it's not in the realm of possibility, and not worth discussing, yes. HTS has spent longer at war with both of them than they spent affiliated with them - and speaking of popular support, ISIS fighters and supporters on social media despising HTS should be a bit of a signal to you. HTS's much-discussed cooperation with the west was also pretty much solely against ISIS. We also don't need to speculate and wonder about religious minorities - HTS has had a productive, positive, and constructive relationship with them in Idlib for the past 4 years as a sort of revival of the millet system and is now expanding that model nationwide. This is unambiguously better for minorities than the deal they got under Assad, which is why they all turned on him without a fight. Assad also didn't exactly defeat ISIS, he kept them around in regime-controlled deserts in an attempt to secure international support and recognition (or simply inability to fully root them out).

True Horror Productions

When the eventual compilation of Matt's poems drops it should have a weird little illustration on each page like a shel silverstein situation, I'm going to buy a coffee table in anticipation

Nick Moralejo

Derek is the chapo guest Goat and it's not even close

Professor Jokes

I'm afraid that he's not wrong and you are a dumb Australian.

Isaac

What does this mean?

Isaac

Hey now, we got a poem from Matt specifically about Luigi! That’s not nothing. Honestly though, there’s not that much they could say about it what wouldn’t just be stating the obvious. He wasn’t particularly politically or ideologically motivated, he was just fed the fuck up. And judging from what I’ve seen of his internet presence I really think we’ll all be happier if his political opinions stay a mystery. Everybody loves Luigi, but if we’re being honest he’s a meme. I don’t see any way a legitimate movement comes out of this. Best case scenario, school shootings stop because the would-be shooters find something else to occupy themselves with.

Do Golems Dream of Ceramic Sheep

He had a whole blog about the travels of Ibn Battuta for a while (which l could not track down) and was on We're Not So Different to talk about it about a month ago

Sarah S

Matt writing sea shanties