Rationale for the Trade I Made on Robinhood (Patreon)

I believe the odds of a government shutdown ending within 60 days are greater than 81%.

The economic and political fallout from millions of Americans missing paychecks, combined with the threat to military pay, makes such an extended shutdown unsustainable.

Approximately 1.4 million federal civilian employees and roughly 1.3 million active-duty military members will miss paychecks during the shutdown. That doesn’t include federal contractors or state and local employees who get paid through federal funding.

Civilian workers from many agencies have already missed paychecks.

The majority of Americans can’t afford to miss paychecks. A PNC Bank Financial Wellness survey found that 67% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck in 2025, up from 63% in 2024.

Active-duty members are paid on the 1st and 15th of each month. Military families narrowly received their October 15th pay after the administration redirected $8 billion from the Defense Department’s R&D budget, which would be a one-time emergency measure, not a recurring solution. The next pay date is November 1st, leaving roughly two weeks to secure new funding.

Legally, the Pentagon cannot keep doing this. It's an emergency power with limits and using it for multiple pay cycles is politically risky.

With 67% of affected Americans financially vulnerable and already missing paychecks, the backlash will only continue to get worse by the day. Additionally, if the military gets paid again before civilian employees, that would be a political nightmare for both parties.

The combination of financial strain on Americans, military pay disruptions, and mounting political pressure are the reasons that I do not believe the government shutdown will last for more than 60 days.

I risked 81 cents to win 19 cents (or roughly –426 odds). That means there’s an 81% implied probability of the government shutdown ending within 60 days.

I would not risk more than 86 cents to win 14 cents (or roughly −614 odds) because the risk/reward no longer is attractive.