Time to Drop Running as a KPI in Football (Patreon)

📌 Summary

In elite football, success hinges on football actions—not how far or how fast players run. Despite this, traditional sports science has overemphasized running metrics as key performance indicators (KPIs). This study challenges that outdated view using a modern, data-driven approach known as Sport Science 3.0, integrating machine learning and embedded monitoring.

🎯 Purpose of the Study

To explore how readiness—defined as a combination of football fitness and neuromuscular freshness—interacts with match running activity and how these factors relate to match outcomes.

🧪 Methodology

• Participants: 25 elite players from a professional Italian team across 3 seasons (2022–2025).

• Data: 73 matches tracked using GPS (WIMU Pro) and heart rate monitoring.

• Indices:

  • Fitness Index (FI): Based on heart rate response to training, lower HR = better fitness.

  • Freshness Index (FR): Based on mechanical load (PlayerLoad), lower strain = better freshness.

  • Match Running Activity: Total distance (TD), standardized by player.

Statistical analysis used multinomial logistic regression and interaction modeling to explore how FI, FR, and TD related to wins, draws, and losses.

📊 Key Findings

• Running more didn’t equal winning: Higher total distance (TD) was more associated with draws than wins.

• The best scenario for winning combined:

  • ✅ High Fitness (FI)

  • ✅ High Freshness (FR)

  • 🚫 Low Running Activity (TD)

  • → This trio led to the highest odds of winning (OR = 2.6).

• Excessive running without sufficient fitness/freshness was counterproductive.

• Running is a consequence, not a cause, of match outcomes—driven by tactics, opposition, and context.

🔑 Take-Home Messages

• 🚫 Stop using running as a standalone KPI. It’s context-dependent and misleading.

• 🧠 Football readiness (freshness + fitness) is more relevant for performance.

• ⚙️ Running should be understood as an output of football actions, not a goal.

• ⚖️ Lower internal load may support better decision-making and game quality.

• 🧩 Many variables (tactics, opponent quality, squad rotation) influence match outcomes—running isn’t the whole picture.

Reference

• "Time to drop running as a KPI in elite football: football fitness and freshness as match-day preconditions" by Mauro Mandorino, Mathieu Lacome, Raymond Verheijen, & Martin Buchheit (2025)