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Reference: Why outswinging corners lead to more chances but inswingers lead to more goals by Andy Jones and Mark Carey (The Athletic)
'In the past 10 Premier League seasons, 3.4 per cent of corners resulted in a goal.'
'A percentage of 3.4 may seem small but in Paul Power’s 2018 paper “Mythbusting set pieces in soccer”, which was based on three seasons of Premier League data looking at 12,000 corners and 3,600 free kicks, it revealed teams are actually more likely to score from set pieces (1.8 per cent) than from a normal open-play possession (1.1 per cent).'
'The perfect corner? I guess it is when everything is done right that you have worked on during the week. The delivery is right and the timing of the runs is right then you have a chance.' Chris Brunt
'It depends on the set-up. I prefer inswingers because the ball is going towards the target. Sometimes you block the goalkeeper and aim for the near post and overcrowd the first zone, whipping it in just above the crossbar. If the ball is swinging in it is hard to head it away. If the opponent does head it, he probably isn’t going to get much distance on it so you can keep the pressure on.' Morten Gamst Pedersen
'If you have big lads who want to go and head it, the closer they are to the goal the better,' says Brunt. 'I think it was also to do with getting hit on the counter-attack as well as trying to score. If you put an outswinger in, it is swinging away from the goal.'
Pedersen adds: “For inswingers, the curve is going into the goal. If nobody touches it the ball might end up in the net. It is a bigger risk and a smaller margin to aim for but getting it close to the goalline, if someone touches it, it is difficult to miss or someone might make a mistake.”
'An average set-piece taker will win a team 0.9 points while an elite set-piece taker will win 1.9 points. It means set-piece specialists are more valuable to teams lower in the table compared to a top-six side because they will contribute to a higher percentage of the team’s total points.'
“I hated inswingers more because the ball is coming towards you and you have a load of people running towards you in a tight area and a lot can happen,” explains The Athletic’s goalkeeper analyst Matt Pyzdrowski.
“Especially when the ball is hit with pace and to the front post. It’s such a deadly area as the attacking team can head it towards goal or flick the ball to the back post. Small deflections can make a huge difference.”
'Plenty of work goes into planning corners before the game. Analysts and coaches will look to spot weaknesses in the opposition’s set-up and how they can exploit them, especially when they are one of your best attacking threats. Routines would be thought out and practised.'
'Pedersen would watch opposition goalkeepers to spot patterns. The former Blackburn man refers to Sam Allardyce’s message which has stuck with him throughout his career. His former manager would tell his players it was an opportunity to place the ball down with nobody pressing you and pick a spot. It is rare you get that in football so it is important not to waste it.'
“We look at how the other team set up,” Burnley’s Dwight McNeil tells The Athletic. “Do the opposition man-mark or mark zonally? We don’t mind either way because we always find weaknesses if they man-mark because we can block within the rules of the game or zonally we can target areas. Do they leave men on the post? How many men do they bring out short? What type of delivery should we use?”
'At West Brom, Brunt trusted his delivery, and so did the coaching staff, so work went on more with the players in the middle in a couple of sessions they did during training every week.'
'It is not just the player who heads the ball that is important, every player will have a role such as making a decoy run or acting as a blocker on an opposition player or on the goalkeeper.'
“One of my biggest pet hates was if a goalkeeper came out and caught a corner under no pressure. It is the worst,” says Brunt.
'Each side will have signals for each routine, and can go into the game with a number of them. They can be codewords, a bounce of the ball or fixing of a shin pad which will be decided when preparing to take the corner. Pedersen’s current side have four or five, including one called “Russia” which aims to isolate somebody one-on-one at the back post by flooding players into the near post as a decoy.'
'Zonal marking has become much more common in the modern game, with teams usually setting up defensively with their three best headers of the ball lined up along the six-yard line. Then the rest will either occupy zones or man-mark the attackers who are running in from the edge of the box. There are ways to exploit it.'
“There are so many clever blocks and movements and variety of delivery that man-marking is quite dangerous and counterproductive as it’s easier for players to get free,” says Pyzdrowski.
Brunt explains: “We always looked to overload one zone. Which zone would depend on the opposition but you try to create a two or three-versus-one situation in your favour and isolate them and then you have the run-up on them too.”
'Outswinging corners can make it easier for a goalkeeper to come and collect the ball compared to inswingers but it can also be used to the advantage of the attacking team.'
“I think outswingers can lend more to exploiting zonal marking,” says Brunt. “You are standing it up in an area which makes it a slower ball. It is further away from the goalkeeper and gives your players the chance to run into a zone and meet it at pace. That helps.”
“I think they (set-piece coaches) are a great idea,” adds Brunt. “Any small gain you can get. There is so much riding on games, especially in the Premier League. Imagine if you lose out on survival by one goal conceded from a set piece.
“At the end of the day though, it is about the desire to score or defend it. That is the be-all and end-all of it.”
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