I am slightly concerned, and this has ramifications that I think are reasonable. I also updated the Deadlock thumbnail. (Patreon)
Content
Hi everyone!
Over the course of my channel, I have experienced extremely explosive growth through certain, key periods in my history. Since then, I have tried to not let chasing that dragon define me, and chose instead to edit videos on anything that I thought was funny or interesting, from a wide range of genres. I had the expectation then that if I made things that were funny, people would show up to them because they liked me.
However, YouTube's methods move in a variety of different ways we cannot always plan for.
TL;DR, My conclusion is simply that the conditions that created big popularity for the channel (such as Ultrakill, MGR) no longer exist. Audiences and opportunities shift over time. I no longer want that to weigh me down in the future, though. And, according to my analysis, it is. So, I have to engage in a deeper statistical understanding before I jump straight at the next project.
Many of you probably came from large videos like those. I'm very glad I've continued to make things that you continuously liked enough for you to even consider supporting me. The fact that I have accomplished that means a lot, actually. But anyways,
I have experienced a decline from those heights for about... 3 years? Let's just say 3. A continuous one, which has me concerned in various ways.
At first, I believed this was a natural plateau and it was nothing to worry about. The idea of matching a high during COVID, or catering to that, wasn't something that was viable to pursue. I would not chase trends instead of doing my own thing and trusting in my own creative endeavors. To some extent, you are proof that some people like that. Thanks.
Over the years, many people have subscribed to this channel for very different reasons. Some for specific games, some for the editing, etc. Because of how YouTube works now, when I upload, it 'tests' the video on that entire group, and especially on a group of subscribers who are likely not responding because of the classification that YouTube has placed on me stemming back to that era. If someone subbed for Metal Gear three years ago and ignores a notification for something new, the system assumes the video is 'bad' and stops showing it to everyone else, including the people who actually want to see it.
This is not a hunch - for about a 3 year period, every video I have ever released has come attached with the notification: "Less subscribers are choosing to watch this video." No matter what it is, due to the history of the channel, it basically always has that attached to it. I could make something catering to old time fans, I could make something new, but YouTube has begun treating them very similarly.
In addition, all of my videos are majority watched by Subscribers, meaning they are not shown to new people. This and other statistical analysis tells me something very important: YouTube is testing it on a group of people, and despite various attempts to experiment, YouTube is always failing me on that metric, likely because the group it is testing on is too large and too disinterested. This is also because, as an artist, I have kept the same genre, love the same genre, but also have moved on from stylistic decisions and made things a higher quality.
I don't want high views, I think I've made that evident with my creative choices and my acceptance that I should not expect 10m+ videos. But I want autonomy. I want hope. I want to wake up and have a video that isn't literally guaranteed to decline. I want it to be based on the decisions I make, rather than some kind of pipeline issue. If I have less views - that is okay, as long as my videos actually have the chance to ever reach a new audience to begin with.
To demonstrate the pipeline issue - Every single video since the release of my Resident Evil 4 video has been the least performing video per-day I have ever made. Each subsequent video will perform worse in the same time period. Will. The only exception, thankfully there was at least one, was the Helldivers 2 video.
Experiencing that for 3 years despite trying various things to get data on what people like and respond to will weigh on you, it would weigh on you heavily. Do keep that in mind if you can.
Your first instinct is likely to inform me what you think I can do to magically get that label of "Not enough subscribers" shed from my next video so that I can have autonomy, and that is feedback I appreciated and really liked for a long time.
I would like to tell you that I did not stay silent, I did not ignore people who were asking me to please them, I did not discount the opinions people gave me when I asked for feedback.
Some people said they missed certain narrative and incorrect summary aspects - so I focused primarily on that in the RDR2 video, and was hit with the "Not enough subscribers" label, so that video performed worse per-day than every video before it.
Some people told me to branch out and try something different, like when I made my Ace Combat 7 video - so I tried a funnier, collaborative, and tightly written Nightreign video that I put my heart and soul into, and was hit with the "Not enough subscribers" label, so that video performed worse per-day than every video before it.
Some people told me that I could maybe reverse the decline by focusing on a few videos that subscribers expected and liked from the past, so I worked on parts of the Elden Ring series, and was hit with the "Not enough subscribers" label, so that video performed worse per-day than every video before it.
Some people suggested making longer videos, so I made my Elden Ring DLC video, and was hit with the "Not enough subscribers" label, so that video performed worse per-day than every video before it.
Some people suggested making more shorter videos so that they'd be more approachable, because they were getting long. So, I made my most recent video, and was hit with the "Not enough subscribers" label, so that video performed worse per-day than every video before it.
I was of the belief that more "Incorrect Summary" style videos with absurd plot summarizations varying greatly from the actual plot of the game in a silly way, like MGR, were what people wanted. So, I made my RE4 video, and was hit with the "Not enough subscribers" label, so that video performed worse per-day than every video before it.
Some people suggested that I ought to try and make a video based on a more recent release, especially one that has staying power - just like Helldivers 2! So, I made my Monster Hunter Wilds video, and was hit with the "Not enough subscribers" label, so that video performed worse per-day than every video before it.
Some people liked Incorrect Summary videos on games that are really weird in and of themselves or contain a lot of weird material, like MGR! So I focused very hard on making my Cruelty Squad video, and was hit with the "Not enough subscribers" label, so that video performed worse per-day than every video before it... For the first 2 years of its existence. I'm glad that that one has some more staying power.
... And a myriad of other small decisions.
... In addition to the fact that in the past, I was allowed to have variations, make mistakes, or have small differences and not have that be perceived as a death sentence, just me being creative.
It is my hypothesis that, because YouTube's system prioritizes "Sub Feed" performance for the first few hours of an upload, and my pool of 1.5M subs is scattered with people from a different era, my initial click-through rate (CTR) is mathematically guaranteed to be low, and then it is not shown to new audiences who may like it.
I appreciated the feedback. A lot. You're very likely tempted to give it right now, but I can practically assure you that I have heard it before, experimented on it, and haven't been given the right data after my experimentation to give you a conclusive answer. Verbal feedback is good - but different people can give contradictory feedback, and statistical feedback is concrete. I need to focus on figuring out direction, so I am not going to debate you if you do bring something up. I have tried your way, and I will now be trying mine. Thank you for that.
I have been diligently hard at work compromising between what I want and to gather data points on what you guys want. Because providing you guys what you want to see is my job, and it's a joy to do so. I am not striking out on my own thing randomly and ignoring my fans. YouTube is not giving me correct, or at the very least, helpful metrics about what people want, and I think that it is because of the factors I've listed already regarding previous categorization and previous videos, as well as the environment I acquired most of my subscribers in. At the same time, I am maintaining my own desire for the direction of some things. I have, and I think successfully, compromised between feedback and my belief in myself.
I am not asking for extra help from you all. I am not asking for views. I am not asking for anything from you. But, I am telling you that the pragmatic realities of YouTube and how its algorithm works currently are going to necessitate that I look into this problem deeply, and consider my options very intensely. I am probably going to put production on hold temporarily until I can have an actual professional look at my analytics, because I am one man, and this is the end of the rope.
As one man, I am unsure how a channel would get out of this algorithmic situation given the factors I have demonstrated. Especially after 3 entire years of attempting to collect data patiently. There is a way. There is certainly a way, and I have decided I am going to identify it now rather than roll the dice. Your suggestions have been very helpful, but I will not just roll the dice again and pray. I have done enough praying, and will be taking concrete action instead.
I want to be a channel that is categorized as one that is valued for its humor and editing, and can engage with any game that I think you guys would find funny. I'm doing this because the old way of reaching you is broken. I want this to succeed because of how many people told me they were inspired by the kind of editing I do. I want to tell them, "You can do this too, this genre is not gone." because I love this genre. But I've decided that the problem is likely categorization, and I need to do something to be categorized correctly despite my past. It is NOT about the content changing; it’s about making sure the content actually reaches the people who want it without being 'torpedoed' by the people who have moved on.
No shade to anyone who has moved on. We all change our viewing habits, and we do so many times over the course of 3 years. I blame no one. Not a single person besides myself, and I do not ask for charity.
I am proud of my past. Currently, however, my past is my biggest liability.
Hopefully, this is a road bump. The most likely outcome is that for a while, I might have to make videos that do not alert or notify subscribers so that YouTube has the opportunity to actually get a profile on those videos that stands completely on their own two feet with a random, new audience. I believe in my videos so intensely that I think I don't need the boost. BUT, I will not be doing this without first seeking professional analysis. Either way, I am intentionally stepping back for just a moment so I can shift from "editor" to "researcher". This will last for a maximum of one week.
When it comes to that professional analysis, do tell me if you know of anything. Thanks.