NEW PERK: 2022-24 WAR Cards (Patreon)

Hey everyone,

Got another 2023-24 perk today, the popular WAR comparison cards.

Here's the gist:

• Player isolate models need a solid sample of data to function properly and fairly estimate allocate responsibility for on-ice results to individual players. WAR data based on a small sample is not only unreliable for the usual reasons that small-sample data can mislead, but because of the complexities of the model itself. 
• That said, we want to be able to consider 2023-24 data as it comes in and not totally have to wait until the mid-way mark of the season, when we can start to be a bit more comfortable in the season's data's ability to stand on its own. 
• The way we work around this is to integrate the game data from 2023-24 with the data from 2022-23, combining the inputs into a "2022-24" season. This way, the new data enlargens and strengthens a big sample. This isn't a perfect method, but it's certainly better than any alternative.
• From there, you can compare the player's performance in 2022-23 to his rankings in this new sample that includes the new season, where changes indicate where improvements or declines may have happened in the earlygoing. 

I understand that it might be a little frustrating to have to jump through these hoops instead of just going nuts with the early season data but ultimately it's worth it.

Here are the links to request access:

• Last name starts with A-G: click here 
• Last name starts with H-N: click here 
• Last name starts with O-S: click here 
• Last name starts with T-Z: click here 

Enjoy. There's still some more early 2023-24 stuff that will be rolling out in the coming months, ranging from dashboards to eventually microstats once more.

If you have any questions about anything, Twitter is still the best place to reach me. Patreon is very choosy with what it chooses to actually notify me about.

Jack