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Timing the market (Patreon)

Published:
2024-06-25 17:25:07
Imported:
2026-06
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Content

I've made several videos on the importance of being in the market for the best days, but I also take pride in my ability to time the market, even though it's extremely difficult. Yesterday, I missed the bottom of MicroStrategy by just 0.003. Once again proving you CAN time the market - the tools we have built were designed for exactly this.

It's worth reiterating however if you are not one to time the market:

  • The cost of timing the market is high.

  • Time in the market always beats timing the market.

  • This applies to any financial investments you make.

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Comments

Katsy22x3

That was so close of a prediction James! Very good job even though it must have been painful to miss so close!

jim beam

You have to be very very focused over the whole investment cycle to time the market. If not, dca, buy on dips, and hold until euphoria. Two choices.

jim beam

Time and timing should be a patron special video. Its sooooo important to decide if you are a timer or a time investor - when you mix the two you get REKT

Mashi

This points to your ATR for 12h and daily trades

AussieGuy

Being in the right assets also helps. I’ve been in NIO since the boom of 2021 and I’m down 90%. I was stupidly DCAing all the way down. FML. James has helped me claw some of my losses back and I can’t thank him enough.

Tahoe Blue

Have also seen selling at bottoms …just saying … Have to calculate all trades over a time period to get accurate evaluation. How about posting a ledger showing every trade made this year …with entry & exit points & profit or loss per trade and profit/loss for year to date ..? Neat, clean, and simple to implement… for all to see .. Thx

RoboSkay

Is it just me… I trade actively and realize a 3-4x over S&P averages. You can make bad days good and good ones great by arbitrage trading diversified assets

Toad up on BTC

6.4x your money over 29 years. I think that is about 6.7% a year.

S S

So, I have to point out that this doesn't include missing the worst days. That's half the point of trading... Aren't we curious to know what these returns be if we were OUT of the market during the 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 and 60 WORST days?

Forstfodd
>>141871102

I downloaded a csv of S&P historical data from nasdaq, and fed it to ChatGPT4o. then I asked her based on this csv containing S&P price date for the last 10 years, can you provide a comparison between staying invested for 10 years vs missing the best 10 days vs missing the 10 worst days ? her answer; Here is the comparison of investment returns over the last 10 years based on the S&P price data: 1. **Staying Invested for 10 Years**: The cumulative return would be approximately **179.44%**. 2. **Missing the Best 10 Days**: The cumulative return would drop significantly to around **53.03%**. 3. **Missing the 10 Worst Days**: The cumulative return would increase substantially to about **435.03%**. This analysis highlights the importance of staying invested, as missing just a few of the best days can greatly reduce overall returns, while avoiding the worst days can significantly enhance returns. ---- Surprising result isn't it? Also got a chart output

HappyBoo
>>141840721

@Tahoe Blue. I like your posting. My brokerage firm fortunately does it for me. I’ve been investing for decades. For example, I have two accounts. One I’ll decide, say 2023, all stocks (BTC proxies included) can’t be sold for one year. The other I give myself permission to buy and sell and normally buy back. Invariably the account that I buy, sell and rebuy does way, way better! Yep, I have to spend more time on it; however, it constantly beats the average by a lot! …….Mind you the money is in tax-free accounts so, obviously, I can sell a stock without worrying about tax ramifications. An example could be before earnings. Meanwhile, two weeks later when the stock has tanked because of poor earnings I buy it back. Mind you I still believe in the stock (TSLA) is a great example. Yep, it’s been tanking for several years; however I remember buying it Jan2023 for $108/share! About the same week I bought META. Why? It was down over 70%. Finally my “stable “ typically has 7 -8 horses. Essentially all tech stocks (AI) or BTC related. ………I am not giving financial advice; however, it works for me.🤞

Pete Wes

How about avoiding the worst 20 days / 50 days (going down is much faster than up).