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Let me break it down:

Key Questions that the community was worried about:

  • What impact would a $100 million Bitcoin dump have on the market?

  • Why are governments and institutions selling Bitcoin?

  • How does the Mt. Gox repayment affect Bitcoin prices?

  • What are the broader market implications of these large Bitcoin sales?

  • Is it a good time to buy Bitcoin during these dips?

  • Is the Bear Market Back?

Potential Answers

  • First is the bear market back - should we all sell? Answer is no. I am 95% sure the bull market is very much alive.

  • Impact of a $100 Million Bitcoin Dump:

    • A $100 million Bitcoin dump, which equates to approximately 1,600 BTC, is generally considered a small fraction of the total market cap of Bitcoin. Mr100 buys this in a week. I shared the news but did not mean to alarm anyone. Historical data suggests that similar dumps have not led to long-term price declines. But i shared as for those who want to stack at $60 K - where I buy, there could be an oppty!

  • Reasons for Government and Institutional Sales:

    • Governments, such as Germany and the United States, have been selling Bitcoin as part of their asset management strategies. These sales are often part of broader financial maneuvers or liquidation of seized assets. For instance, Germany recently sold 750 BTC, and the U.S. government has also been active in selling seized Bitcoin.

    • Govts also do not want to look like they support and HODL bitcoin - as they survive on the FIAT PONZI!  

  • Mt. Gox Repayments:

    • The impending repayment of 142,000 BTC by Mt. Gox, valued at nearly $9 billion, has raised concerns about potential market impacts. However, experts suggest that only a small fraction of these bitcoins will likely be sold immediately, thus minimizing the potential for a significant price drop.

  • Broader Market Implications:

    • The combined effect of government sales, institutional rebalancing, miners capitulating and events like the Mt. Gox repayment could create temporary price pressures but are expected to be manageable.

  • Buying Opportunities During Dips:

    • I see this as another bite at 60K if we dip. We may also just keep on up from here. It may just be a classic sell the rumor buy the news

  • ATR Status shows abuy and Trend is about to turn positive.

Conclusion

We are still in the summer doldrums. We are still in the 90 day period after the halving that should go to 15 July, and after that we could still chop a little bit sideways unless the big money starts to come back in.

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Comments

Lucky

HODL BRODL

Arch Stanton

Tomorrow BTC will be between $1 and $100000. Not selling until I'm dead so.... No matter to me

SolMan

Rather than panic 😱 may as well grab a Sangria and back Spain 🇪🇸 to win the Euros. It’s a x5 bagger now. Not too bad for a two week sit 😉

Vick

People really freaked out about 1600 bitcoin lol... Have they not been watching your videos? It's a drop in a bucket. Guys strap on and prepare for lift off!

Impulseive

James, is there any way to track those $100m worth of BTC? Do you have them posted somewhere in Discourse? If not, any chance of you posting all of the wallet address you keep an eye on? (With labels, pretty please 😊)

Trask Bergerson

Love it - ready to get rid of some more Trashy Fiat for an Ultra Hard Asset. ( at the right price !)

Christophe Dhoker

I think that another factor that governments are not holding on bitcoin (yet) is because most governments change seats every 2 to 4 year. These governments want direct ponzi money and are not interested in holding on something which increases in value and gift it to their opponents.

Sibs

Regarding Mt Gox, I have to disagree with the experts: 'experts suggest that only a small fraction of these bitcoins will likely be sold immediately, thus minimizing the potential for a significant price drop.' I would expect quite a lot of selling by Mt Gox investors who can finally cash in a chunk of BTC and take a slice of what may be life changing wealth for them.