IA Daily Digest (July 26-29, 2024) (Patreon)

Summary of InvestAnswer's Posts (thanks, Josh, for collecting)

Date: 26 July 2024 - 28 July 2024

• Tesla:

  • Price Prediction:

  IA believes we could hit $310 and $320 by end of year. If Robotaxi is on the road by Christmas, TSLA could hit $400. There is no doubt Tesla has been disappointing, but I'm not disappointed because I had to build a far larger bag at much lower prices. ⁠

  • FSD 12.5:

  FSD update is allegedly the best product experience ever. It’s now just a straight up personal robotaxi. To many it feels out of the future. Only those that have it realize it.

  • Buy now or wait:

  Here are positive reasons investors should consider buying TSLA -10% today. 1/ Elon reaffirmed that the more affordable ($25-$30K) TSLA vehicle will start deliveries in 2025/1H. This is classic TAM expansion by leveraging a premium brand to lower-price segments. Elon was deliberately vague to prevent Osborne effect on more expensive models. 2/ Robotaxi event on 10/10 will instill confidence in investors that TSLA will be first to introduce generalized unsupervised FSD. 3/ TSLA Energy business continues to soar: TSLA 2Q Energy gross profits increased +200% vs 2023/2Q. In 2Q Energy was 16% of TSLA gross profits vs 11% in 1Q. 4/ We expect at least one other OEM will give up on autonomy and instead license TSLA’s FSD technology.

• Trading and Investing:

  • Chipotle Stock Analysis:

  CMG is dog food, they have $4 billion in debt and growing. Fair value is $47, and trading at $50. Hard pass for IA. Insiders are also selling which is never a good sign. ⁠

  • New buys:

  For IA, he would continue to stack MSTR, BTC miners, and TSLA. For Crypto it would be SOL and BTC under 60K

• ATR Model:

• ATR is an easy model to use. If you are new to trading, take time to learn in Discourse and also paper trade until you are successful 80% of the time. ⁠

  • TSLA / BTC:

  IA hopes crypto will have a wonderful rally through Q1 2025 starting late Sept 2024 and then the plan is to scientifically rotate out of Crypto and during that time IA hopes TSLA stays under $300. ⁠

• Solana:

  • Tail Winds:

  SOL has so much going for it and is far ahead of other chains SOL ZK is the dark horse no one really aware of yet. It might be more important than Firedancer. ⁠

  • $10T:

  If the total crypto market cap hits $10 trillion, SOL could hit $816. ⁠

• Bitcoin:

  • Saylor Prediction:

  Michael Saylor predicts BTC’s base case is $13M by 2045.

  • Price Target:

  IA’s price target for BTC remains 120k this bull run. ⁠

  • Avg Home Price / BTC:

  IA envisions a day in 2030-2032 where you will be able to buy not one but 2 homes for the price of just 1 BTC.

Date: 28 July 2024 - 29 July 2024 

• Bitcoin:

  • Game Theory:

  BTC didn’t tank after the BTC conference where Donald Trump spoke. It has opened everyone's eyes to game theory, which is really taking off now. IA is a firm believer.

  Pretty apparent however Trump is no orator - RFK was far better prepared

  ⁠

  • Miner Update:

  In the last 12 months of BTC production from miners a a few things stand out to IA: 1) severe shrinkage for MARA and CORZ - pretty amazing how MARA went from producing 1900 to 590 Bitcoin in the space of 6 months 2) CLSK is now #2 leapfrogging the shrinking CORZ 3) Mathematically based on having the delta between MARCH to APR was Minus 9.3% and from APR to MAY was Minus 39.4% - almost a perfect halving in rewards. 4) 6 mths ago CLSK produced 38% of what MARA produced... now it is about 80% over last 4 mths. ⁠

• Trading and Investing:

  • Leverage Trading:

  Remember, with crypto, only play leverage with 1% of your net worth. Leverage is designed to wreck you if you are not supremely careful. Playing with the house's money is fine, but remember, it's not about what you make; it's about what you keep.Set a rule: for every 10% gain, pocket 2.5% to 3.3% in a safe asset like TSLA or BTC. Rules are SO IMP. ⁠

  • CLSK:

  IA remains hedged on CLSK. ⁠

  • Portfolio Building:

  IA encourages a member to increase their TSLA position to get to 20% of their total portfolio. They were at 10%. ⁠

  • MSTR/TSLA:

  MSTR/TSLA has retraced back down to 7.18. IA is watching this pair like a hawk and trading between them now in a TAX FREE account. Goal is to build it up to a $1M bag over time.

• Tesla:

  • Tax Credits:

  Getting rid of the credits is good for Tesla. It destroys the competition and gets rid of hybrids which are illogical to IA. ⁠

  • $220:

  Buying TSLA under $220 is a no brainer. ⁠

  • Serve Robotics:

  IA would not invest in Serve robotics, a newly publicly traded company NVDA and UBER have both made investments in. They have no cash. TSLA is IA’s robotics play.