How to Play AltSeason (Patreon)

This chart helps us understand where we are, when to double down and when to take profit. Best part is when to buy a house (Top of ALTSEASON ie Take Profit) and when to sell a house NFA - the bottom.

This system looks at the overall market and uses a few different measurements. You can think of it like a TOTAL3/TOTAL indicator.

• TOTAL: The total market value of all cryptocurrencies.

• TOTAL3: The total market value of all cryptocurrencies except Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).

• Oscillator: A tool that moves between 0 and 1, similar to the Relative Strength Index (RSI).

Here is the way to play it:

• BTC and Altcoins Both Rising:

  • This indicates a clear upward trend with both TOTAL and TOTAL3 increasing. Usually, Bitcoin's dominance (BTC.D) is stable or decreasing, signaling a bull market.

  • Action: Consider buying more. If altcoins are rising faster than BTC, invest more in them. Otherwise, be cautious.

• BTC and Altcoins Both Falling:

  • This shows a clear downward trend with both TOTAL and TOTAL3 decreasing.

  • Action: Reduce risk by moving to stable assets and top cryptocurrencies. This is the only scenario where shorting makes sense. Trend followers should wait for a reversal, while mean reversion traders might consider buying during dips.

• BTC Falling, Altcoins Rising:

  • This is rare and happens when altcoins are doing better than BTC despite BTC's decline.

  • Action: If BTC is stable and not dropping sharply, it might be a short altcoin season. Consider taking more risks.

• BTC Rising, Altcoins Falling:

  • BTC is outperforming the market, usually seen before a halving or at the start of a bull market.

  • Action: This might be a pre-bull market phase where BTC outperforms. It could be a good time to buy altcoins before a big move.