My Sept Outlook and Plan (Patreon)

I wanted to share my thoughts and plans for my investment strategy.

Current Position and Market Trends

I've maintained a cash position of approximately 12% throughout the summer, anticipating the SEP crash. This conservative approach has been challenging to maintain but i am a big believer in historical patterns:

• August and September have historically been the weakest months for the S&P 500, with average returns of -0.6% and -0.7% respectively since 1950.

• The "September Effect" has seen the Dow Jones Industrial Average decline by an average of 1% in September over the past 100 years.

• Bitcoin has experienced an average decline of 7.5% in September over the past 5 years.

• Historically, crypto markets have shown a tendency to dip in Q3 before rallying in Q4.

Strategy Moving Forward

Given these factors, I plan to gradually deploy some of my cash reserves and re-enter select positions. This approach is based on:

• The possibility that we may be experiencing the anticipated "September Crash" now or gradually throughout the month. I don't know. I also don't know if we had it early due to the carry trade unwind early August.

• There is potential that the worst market conditions may already be behind us.

  Meanwhile, Bitcoin is dumping hard, which is unusual for a Sunday.