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MSTR Arb Cloud (Patreon)

Published:
2024-10-11 18:09:23
Imported:
2026-06
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I have never seen ARB cloud so high above where it should be. The Premium to NAV is nuts.

The calls I sold to hedge have my position are up to $20. I sold them for $15. Rem the underlying stock has gone up $20 while the call has gone up only $5.

I will decide what to do next when we hit 215. The strength is insane.

Shorts are getting REKT

 

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Comments

Rside2

Yet the 4 hour and 1 Hour setting on Arb is within range... I saw several fund managers shorting MSTR based on the premium to BTC. Is there speculation of reking the shorts? So many other suggestions that if BTC is tracking to $100k, then $300+ is incoming.

TFB5

reminds me of the GBTC run in 2017 where the premiums to NAV went insane.

El. Dm.

I’ve got only 20 shares of MSTR. Should i keep buying or should choose Tesla? I bought them before the split so it means only 2 before the split

Mr. Mushrooms
>>152125915

I had the same dilemma but I think I ll wait to switch to tesla after the bullrun...tesla will need some time to develop robotaxi Optimus ramp up production of tesla semi truck and surprise us with cheap tesla car...mid 2025 tot end of 2025 I think will be the best

J - man

My two biggest regrets so far in financing is Nvidia micro strategy and I guess Meta too. I listen to James at Solana at eight dollars but in my little head entering finance world. I thought crypto move fast stocks per old people and doesn’t move. They think 7% in the year is awesome and we do 50% a day so I saw the excitement in James‘s face his eyes he was bubbling over with like pure, giddy excitement screaming at me like right in my face to buy both it would change my life to buy . Either Microsoft strategies/ Nicola and I just had Coinbase didn’t wanna download Robin Hood. You know don’t like the technical aspect and I thought stocks don’t move that much I’ll stick with the crypto And damn I would’ve done so much better in stocks whoever knew I hope I get it together someday

R Neymar

I just received a email from my wife's email Hello... Send me a phrase of your ledger wallet ? How do they know I have a ledger wallet? What is this new scam ? Or has her email been hacked ? I remember while ago there was a scam where they can send email from your email but they haven't really gained access... somehow they can impersonate your account Anyone had something similar ? I have checked her account and the email has not been sent no history

lee

Some fat cats must be loading up mstr. They also like dumping too

CryptoTikiBro

IV is 95.2% . Tulip bulb mania phase.

rkcrypto

I’m saying this as someone who sold MSTR when James’ hedged (also shorted) as Arb Cloud showed it was overvalued based on NAV Premium. I’ve since closed my shorts. While Arb Cloud shows it’s overvalued if you look at the NAV Premium in late 2020 you will see many instances where NAV premium ranged between 3-4.4. There are some instances where it went to 6, but I throw those out. Remember, MS started acquiring BTC on Aug 2020. I’m not saying NAV Premium will go to 4.4, but it is a possibility. The catalysts of anticipating S&P inclusion, FASB adoption, and shorts covering, is driving the stock price higher than most thought possible, at the current BTC price. With earnings coming up in a few weeks if neither of these catalysts come true it’s possible the stock reverts. We shall see. Rather than NAV Premium I’m focusing on RSI on both daily and weekly. If the daily RSI goes above 85 I’d look too short and above 80 on the weekly. Of course one must also take into account where they see BTC headed. If BTC confines to move higher so will MSTR, however if BTC pulls back to under 60k MSTR will follow. https://www.mstr-tracker.com

Cyclops1
>>152141321

I'm torn to sell some of my MSTR based on the current price movement. However, I am long term bullish on BTC with the next 2 months having significant upward movement and that is causing me hesitation to sell 3% of my bag.

Garrett
>>152130668

Don't worry, but do not reply! This type of scam is common. It is also easy to impersonate email accounts. Also, they send emails to millions hoping that somebody will have a ledger or a specific bank account. They do not know whether you have a ledger or not! I hope your wife does not have your seed phrase? Better not to share.

Moonlarbz

Hi James and team.. I missed the opportunity to contribute to the Sunday Q&A however given the likelihood of bitcoin going beyond 100K what is the likely impact on MSTR price outcome…I have seen some price targets from trad analyst that range from 290-400usd is this realistic?

Rock Lee

Can someone please explain to me what the "Arb Price" on the Arb Cloud indicator is and is used for? I thought all that needs to be understood is MSTR's price being over or under the cloud, necessitating swaps for BTC accordingly. Thanks in advance.