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Election Update Nov 5, 2024 (Patreon)

Published:
2024-11-05 18:18:39
Imported:
2026-06
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Content

Takeaway from Fireside Chat yesterday was folks wanted updates on the election. So here is my detailed write up.

The reason we care about the Election as it impacts markets - markets are booming today - BTC up 3600 in 18 hours, SOL up to nearly 170 - monster swings, TSLA MSTR up - we have come down a little off the highs but this is the status right now - I am not hedged, I have not sold anything, I have not bought anything... I may take a nibble before the close.

HERE IS THE DATA I SEE RIGHT NOW

  • Donald Trump is currently leading in betting markets, with odds around 60-40 in his favor

  • Betting markets have historically been a good indicator of election outcomes, with 10 out of the last 11 favored candidates winning

  • Real Clear Politics is officially predicting a Trump victory based on their aggregate polls

  • FiveThirtyEight's final forecast shows a very close race, with Kamala Harris at 50% chance and Trump at 49%

  • There are reports of record turnout in rural areas, which is seen as favorable for Trump

  • Pennsylvania is experiencing high Election Day turnout, particularly among male voters - PA is the whole ball game - if Trump wins PA - it is game over.

  • Trump is considered a clear favorite in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, with a slight edge in Pennsylvania

  • Betting markets show fluctuations in Rust Belt states, with Trump regaining a lead in Pennsylvania

  • Iowa betting odds show Trump with an 85-15 advantage - yeah that was fake news over the weekend from De Moines register rag.

  • Senate race betting odds show Republicans leading in key states like Ohio and Montana, with potential gains in Arizona and Rust Belt states

Files

Previews only

Comments

Rocinante

Keep it to together folks, remember, we are here in a common investment pursuit no matter our political leanings. Political figures want to convince you how different we are when really we have more in common than we have differences. I worked in former Yugoslavia through the 90’s and have first hand experience of the danger of polarization. Don’t let this happen to us.

MB-TrojanSurgeon

I just got out of surgery to take a peek…and WHOA NELLY did things get DIRTY around here!!!!!

TFB5

People are just way too sensitive... but it is crazy to think that anyone would not choose the team of non-career politicans: Vivek, Musk, Gabbard, Vance, Kennedy.

Oyster

Republicans have the same candidate for president the last 3 elections

bholiday

Folks...if you are smart enough to listen to James, you should be smart enough to vote for Trump.

Bailout

The scam started at 1am when everyone was asleep. Waiting to see what the have up their sleeves this time. Never underestimate the devil.

KindHeartFierceMind

Well James valiant effort, people asked for data, you gave them what you gave. Perhaps this one time commenting needed to be turned off. Yet, there's always something to learn. The last 6 weeks trash talking which goes unchecked on Twitter, yahoo and reddit are rampant here. Not your intention I'm sure. A difference of opinion is one thing, disrespect and really negative thought patterns are not your Jam. You are here to help people learn and make $. I was one of your very first women and I may not be a millionaire yet, but with hard work, study, risk taking, conviction and stability in volatility...I've seen more gains in these 5 years than ever before. Several goals and accomplishments achieved...my first 50%er, then 100%er...even a 2000%er on GSOL when it was my only onramp to SOL at the time. Bottom line my portfolios and those I manage for relatives are all UP thanks to your dedication to KPMs. I love you, appreciate you and your team. I'm looking forward to seeing data that is able to be captured to reflect FEMALE statistics and information. We are 51% of America. We don't gamble, take polls. VERY few if any companies gather DATA on Women. For example, normal in the medical community refers to a 40yr old Male. The world is not just going to change in technology but in the ways women will come together in strength and demand more. We've been your babies, your bunnies, wives, daughters, mothers, caretakers, breadwinners and so much more. Men have a solem duty to do better in every respect of evolution...or women WILL step forward and stop the madness. This world is a function of balance, we are all a function of Balance, we cannot function without each other...it's time to bring back balance.

P D

If trump wins BTC breaks ATH by morning .... if Harris wins then by Thursday rate cut!

El. Dm.

We broke ath!!!

SCT

where are all those critics of James for using the betting odds??? well where are you ??? once again polymarket and the other sites were far more accurate than any bs polls.