Tesla Robotaxi Commercialization in 2025 (Patreon)

Big takeaway - per ARK nearly 60% chance of Robotaxi Commercialization in 2025.

5 key points:

• Tesla released FSD v13.2, which includes significant improvements such as FSD parking at the start and end of journeys and the ability to drive in reverse, bringing the company closer to its robotaxi goal

• ARK Invest estimates a 58% probability of Tesla launching its robotaxi service in 2025, with a 38% chance in 2026

• Tesla aims to surpass the national average of ~670,000 miles between human accidents, potentially achieving a ~700x improvement over FSD v12.5

• The company's Cortex cluster in Austin has increased Tesla's training compute power by 5x, optimizing FSD v13.2 performance in vehicles with the AI4 computer chip

• Tesla predicts that its new model will extend miles between critical interventions next year, which could save lives, enhance regulatory discussions, and lower costs associated with remote human operators